Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Dallas | -9 | 49.5 | 29.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Washington | -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | |
| Green Bay | St. Louis | -9 | 46 | 27.5 | +++ | ++ | + |
| Kansas City | Chicago | -9 | 45 | 27 | +++ | ++ | ++ |
| Philadelphia | New Orleans | -4.5 | 49.5 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| NY Giants | San Francisco | -7 | 43 | 25 | ++ | + | ++ |
| Baltimore | Cleveland | -6.5 | 43 | 24.75 | ++ | + | ++ |
| San Diego | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | 45.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
| Denver | Oakland | -4.5 | 43.5 | 24 | + | + | + |
| Arizona | Detroit | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
| Houston | Indianapolis | -1.5 | 44 | 22.75 | |||
| Cincinnati | Seattle | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||
| New Orleans | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 49.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Jacksonville | -3 | 42 | 22.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Tennessee | -2 | 42 | 22 | |||
| Indianapolis | Houston | 1.5 | 44 | 21.25 | |||
| Pittsburgh | San Diego | 3.5 | 45.5 | 21 | |||
| Detroit | Arizona | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
| Washington | Atlanta | 7.5 | 48 | 20.25 |
+ |
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| Seattle | Cincinnati | 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | |||
| Dallas | New England | 9 | 49.5 | 20.25 | + | ||
| Tennessee | Buffalo | 2 | 42 | 20 | |||
| Jacksonville | Tampa Bay | 3 | 42 | 19.5 | |||
| Oakland | Denver | 4.5 | 43.5 | 19.5 | |||
| St. Louis | Green Bay | 9 | 46 | 18.5 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Baltimore | 6.5 | 43 | 18.25 | |||
| Chicago | Kansas City | 9 | 45 | 18 | + | ||
| San Francisco | NY Giants | 7 | 43 | 18 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: LaGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Eddie Lacy (Packers), Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Sam Bradford (Eagles)
- Running Back: DeMarco Murray/Ryan Mathews (Eagles), Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Giants), Justin Forsett (Ravens)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Leonard Hankerson (Falcons), Randall Cobb/James Jones (Packers), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor (Eagles)
- Defense: Chiefs, Giants, Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Eli Manning (Giants), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Peyton Manning (Broncos), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Brandon Weeden (Cowboys), Nick Foles (Rams), Jay Cutler (Bears), Colin Kaeparnick (49ers)
- Running Back: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead (Chargers), C.J. Anderson/Ronnie Hillman (Broncos)
- Receivers: Odell Beckham/Rueben Randle (Giants), Kamar Aiken/Marlon Brown/Maxx Williams (Ravens), Keenan Allen/Steve Johnson/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Owen Daniels (Broncos), Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder (Redskins), Terrence Williams/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Tavon Austin/Kenny Britt/Jared Cook (Rams), Eddie Royal/Marquess Wilson/Martellus Bennett (Bears), Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith (49ers)
- Defense: Packers, Broncos
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