This week we discuss the following:
- Rookie running backs
- WRs on the rise
- Who's the lead RB?
- Eagles quarterbacks
- Chris Johnson
- Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice
- Case Keenum vs. Matt Ryan
- Who is TE3?
Rookie running backs
Do we need to see any more from Zac Stacy before we officially pronounce him an every-week fantasy starter?
Chad Parsons: Stacy is definitely fulfilling his offseason buzz after the Rams drafted him. The Rams may not have many goal line chances to finish off successful drives for the rest of the season, but Stacy is in the driver's seat for a wealth of touches. Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson are in the rear-view mirror and while Stacy does not have top-five upside on a weekly basis, he is tough to keep out of lineups in start-two running back formats.
Greg Russell: One of the things that I love about Stacy is that he's producing even though the Rams passing attack hasn't been particularly potent. If the running game is not going well, Stacy is still a threat as a receiver and stays very involved in the offense. He is an every week starter in my book until I see something change.
Jeff Pasquino: I don't need to see any more. Zac Stacy is the starter, and Jeff Fisher has all but announced it to everyone — but anyone watching the Rams (sorry if you are) consistently can see that Stacy is their guy going forward. Stacy gets carries and targets and plays on all three downs, which is a rarity in today's specialized game. That immediately pushes him up to Top 20 fantasy RB consideration.
Will Grant: Stacy is the only guy that I'd even consider starting from St. Louis anymore. Their offense has turned into a train wreck, but Stacy is the one consistent component of it. He's definitely a guy that I'd be starting every week.
Maurile Tremblay: Yes, he's an every-week starter. He's gotten over 25 carries in each of the last two weeks, and with the passing game in disarray, Stacy will keep getting the ball. A lot. The touchdowns may be infrequent, but he's a near lock to get 60+ yards a week with the potential to go over 100.
Is Gio Bernard the most dynamic and explosive RB from this draft class?
Chad Parsons: Yes. My enjoyment watching Bernard has grown on a weekly basis and he is the 'new' running back that meshes perfectly with the current NFL offensive system. Bernard excels in space and as a receiver, but also can lower his pads for interior yardage on the ground. He is well-rounded, has fresh 21-year-old legs, and has the most upside of any running back in this draft class.
Greg Russell: I agree with your assessment, Chad, and think Bernard also landed in a good situation for his long term value. The presence of A.J. Green will make defenses hesitant to commit safeties to the box. Green-Ellis is just good enough for now to keep the Bengals from running Bernard into the ground, but not good enough to be any kind of long term threat. The only downside for Bernard is that Green-Ellis is seeing much of the goal line work, with 12 carries inside the 10 compared to three for Bernard. Fortunately, Bernard has the ability to score from further out, as I imagine he'll be at risk of touchdown vultures for much of his career.
Jeff Pasquino: I think he is, and it is clear how stark the contrast is between him and BenJarvus Green-Ellis when they switch backs. It is night and day. Bernard has that extra something and higher top end gear when he gets rolling, and I can't think of any other rookie (drafted) back that has that kind of explosion right now. Bell, Ball and Lacy — no, no and no. Good backs but not dynamic playmakers like Bernard.
Will Grant: He is. Now I just wish that the Bengals would get him the ball more. He had a solid game by any fantasy RB standards last week and only touched the ball 13 times. That's great if he's playing the Dolphins or the Bills, but against the Jets, he had just six touches for 27 yards. As long as he's only getting 10-12 touches a game, you can't start him at anything more than a 'what the heck flex' position — he could bottom out just as easily as break the bank.
Maurile Tremblay: Bernard looks really good. And he's in the perfect offense for his skill set. It's hard to trust his fantasy production because BenJarvus Green-Ellis is getting so much work on early downs, but Bernard's big-play potential is outstanding.
What are Eddie Lacy's fantasy prospects with Aaron Rodgers out? Will the Packers lean more heavily on the running game?
Chad Parsons: It is a lateral move for Lacy without Rodgers under center. While Lacy may see a few more touches, less Green Bay possessions will end up in the red zone and there will be a few more three-and-out drives. Either way Lacy was in the RB1 conversation weekly down the stretch.
Greg Russell: I do not see Lacy's prospects improving if Rodgers is out for very long. He may see a larger share of the team's touches, but how well will the Packers move the ball with a depleted receiving corps and a backup quarterback who did not even have preseason to prepare with the team? I think Green Bay's offense drops off significantly, enough to kill any gains for Lacy.
Jeff Pasquino: Lacy should be a solid RB2 with lower-end RB1 upside going forward — but that's a notch or two down from where he was when Rodgers kept defenses more honest. Green Bay can rely on Lacy, but they will also lean on James Starks, too. I expect 40+ carries a game for the Packers as they will try and grind out a few games until Rodgers can come back. I think if they can tough it out for two to three weeks against the Eagles, Giants and Vikings then they can hopefully start to re-air it out again with Rodgers in a big game against Detroit in Week 13.
Maurile Tremblay: As long as Lacy keeps getting three or four times as many carries as James Starks, he's a top-ten fantasy running back. I agree with Chad that Aaron Rodgers' absence won't affect Lacy's bottom line. He'll get the same total production on a greater number of touches.
Will Grant: The Packers were relying on Lacy pretty well before Rodgers was out. Now they will even more. In week five against Detroit, he had 23 carries for 99 rushing yards. Since then he's had more than 20 touches and more than 100 yards from scrimmage over the next four games. With Rodgers on the sideline for a few weeks, the Packers are going to have to use Lacy a lot — if only to keep defenses off of Seneca Wallace. Going into the Monday night game, the Bears had just nine sacks as a team. They had five against the Packers. That should scare the hell out of anyone who owns one of the Green Bay Receivers — if defense are not afraid of Wallace (and they are not) and they start blitzing him like crazy, their passing game is going to disappear. Look for Lacy to continue with 20-25 touches a game.
Mike James was more effective in week nine than Doug Martin had been all year, and he did it against the Seahawks. Is Martin's productivity going to be a reason to bring Martin back very slowly? What are James fantasy prospects as long as Martin is out?
Chad Parsons: It is highly unlikely that Martin would lose his starting job with a few good games from James in his absence. I would be surprised to see Martin again this season for a number of reasons: Tampa Bay is far from the playoff race, James has been solid, and the team has already stated that Martin will need surgery at some juncture. James is a top-15 weekly play with his uncontested touches and ability to play on all downs.
Jeff Pasquino: James' productivity is reason enough to not even consider rushing Martin back, and given that the Bucs are 0-8 on the season, I see no reason to hurry him back to the lineup. In fact, it would be wise for the team to just IR Martin and call it a year to prevent anyone (cough, Schiano) from trying to save their season or job — something that should not depend on Martin. As for James, he was productive even in tough matchups, so I like him as a solid RB2 going forward.
Will Grant: James is the guy to have while Martin is out — but I'd hold off on giving up Adrian Peterson for him just yet. Tampa still as a lot of offensive question marks, and one good game isn't going to be an indicator of how they will perform the rest of the season. They face the Dolphins this week on Monday night and their run defense has been very suspect over the last few weeks (over 140 yards to both New England and Cincinnati). James should have a solid game this week as well. You just have to take him on a case-by-case basis.
Maurile Tremblay: Doug Martin sounds like he wants to come back this season, but given that he's going to need surgery anyway, I don't see the point in coming back at less than full strength. In any case, the Buccaneers offense looks better now than it did under Freeman, and as long as Martin is out, James is a solid fantasy starter.
Will Andre Ellington always be merely a change-of-pace back, or does he have fantasy RB1 potential down the road in dynasty leagues?
Chad Parsons: I have tempered expectations for Ellington as a future back that gets close to 20 touches a week. Few backs can maintain their efficiency with an increase in volume like C.J. Spiller or Jamaal Charles. Ellington, at his best, would be in the RB20-30 range in dynasty if he remains effective and involved in the passing game in future seasons.
Greg Russell: Coach Bruce Arians can go run-heavy or pass-heavy, with the latter being the better fit for Ellington. With an aging Carson Palmer at quarterback, I am not sure the team has the personnel for a scheme where Ellington will play a heavy enough role to be a fantasy RB1. I expect Ellington will lose goal line carries to other backs and be an excellent RB2, but I do not want to count on him long-term as my first running back.
Jeff Pasquino: Until Bruce Arians figures out that Rashard Mendenhall is not the answer to any question aside from who should be benched, Ellington cannot have RB1 potential. Anyone who has seen Ellington this year has seen how explosive he can be with the ball in his hands, and I see Darren Sproles-type upside for the smaller, speedy dynamo. He is not a big guy though so expecting him to pound it between the tackles is a mistake, but today that's not a big part of the pass-happy, get-to-open-space NFL. I think Ellington has good upside long-term but he could be in trouble if he is forced to deal with big hits from the defense on a consistent basis. A Reggie Bush type role is ideal.
Will Grant: I don't think you can count on him as anything more than a fantasy RB2, even in PPR leagues. I don't think anyone considers Rashard Mendenhall as the answer there, and Ellington seems like the back to have. I just don't see him being a guy who can handle 25 touches a game. He'll always be that change of pace back — capping his upside at RB2.
Maurile Tremblay: I don't see Ellington getting a big enough role to be a reliable fantasy starter. When Mendenhall has been healthy this season, he's generally gotten three or four times as many carries as Ellington (though Ellington is substantially more involved in the passing game), and even when Mendenhall was out in the Cardinals' most recent game, Ellington and Stepfan Taylor split the workload fairly evenly.
After missing the first three games due to injury, LeVeon Bell has gotten 18-20 touches a game, but he's averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. What's his realistic fantasy potential this season? Does he look like the Steelers' long-term answer at running back?
Chad Parsons: Bell fits into the RB2 mix as the volume is there, but the Pittsburgh offense is struggling to get anything of note going in the run game. Bell has the look of a lead back going forward with the concerns being that he is going to take a pounding at the NFL level due to his size and his lack of lateral agility to get out of the way of those hits. The Steelers look like a deep rebuild, so getting back to their running ways of years past may sap away Bell's best years with fresh legs.
Greg Russell: I am not a fan of the situation for Bell, but have to admit he is finding ways to get yards in the passing game. The Steelers do not exactly face a murderer's row down the stretch, but I still expect they will be playing from behind in the majority of their games. As Pittsburgh's line is not the most stalwart, Bell may be able to continue to perform as a fantasy RB2 as a lot of check-down passes come his way. The more I consider his situation, the more I think he might be a candidate to go out and get in a redraft league that has not passed the trade deadline yet. It is very easy to be pessimistic about Pittsburgh's offense, so you might catch a Bell owner undervaluing him.
Jeff Pasquino: The Steelers are realizing that this is a lost season, so they have to evaluate for the long term. That means getting the ball into the hands of their younger players and seeing what they can do, which includes Bell. His fantasy potential right now is not high because the offensive line is not very good and the defense is also poor, which means that Pittsburgh will have to throw more in the second half to try and get back in games. Bell can be the longer term answer in the backfield, but they cannot overwork him or expect too much from him this year. I expect a solid RB2 type valuation for Bell the rest of the way.
Maurile Tremblay: I'm on the same page as Greg. Anyone who doesn't see Bell as a solid fantasy starter is undervaluing him. With the volume of work he's getting, he will continue to average double-digit fantasy points in all standard formats.
WRs on the rise
In week eight, Kenny Stills and Marvin Jones had huge weeks that made them eagerly sought on the waiver wire. In week nine, it was Jerricho Cotchery and Riley Cooper with three touchdowns each (and nice yardage as well).
Which of those four guys do you think will have the most lasting fantasy value?
Ryan Hester: While fantasy points are ultimately generated by yards and touchdowns, I like looking at more predictable factors like targets and snaps played. After all, players who aren't on the field can't score fantasy points. Out of this group, Cooper is the most likely to play the highest percentage of his team's snaps from this point forward. Not only that, but in Philadelphia's fast-paced offense, he'll probably see many more total snaps than the others. Add in the fact that he has performed well and been targeted often in games that Nick Foles has played. Foles isn't going anywhere soon, so neither is Cooper.
Chad Parsons: Give me Kenny Stills. Marques Colston has not looked right all season and Drew Brees is the best quarterback of this quartet of receivers. Stills may rank no higher than third on this list in terms of snaps, his efficiency will be more than enough to warrant flex consideration.
Greg Russell: I would want Marvin Jones on my team over the others. I think he will be much more consistent than Kenny Stills, as even with Colston's issues there are still too many targets in New Orleans. Jones seems to be doing a better job of insinuating himself as a regular member of the offense. I do not want to sound biased against Cooper, I just have not had a chance to watch much of the Eagles with Foles under center to evaluate how they are using him.
Jeff Pasquino: Marvin Jones is seeing the field more and more, but Cincinnati has a ton of weapons at wideout, running back and tight end. Cotchery is going to be pushed for playing time by Markus Wheaton, and Riley Cooper is a bit inconsistent aside from his Week nine explosion. Kenny Stills has a slight nod above Cooper for me because of his outstanding quarterback in Drew Brees, the injury woes across the board (Sproles, Colston, Graham) for the Saints and Stills' big play upside.
Will Grant: I really think Marvin Jones is undervalued. I like what the kid can do and he has put together some nice streaks over the last two seasons. What concerns me is just that — he's streaky. I suppose that's the best you can expect from a WR3 type of player for your fantasy team though so I guess you take the good with the bad. Cotchery scares me. I grabbed him early but he's been a big disappointment since then. The entire Jets offense is very boom or bust now and I'd probably avoid it unless you're desperate.
Maurile Tremblay: It's not Cotchery. He's still the clear number three WR on a lagging offense. Kenny Stills will be hit-or-miss. I think Marvin Jones is the one with the highest upside. He needs to get more playing time (he's still getting fewer snaps each week than Mohamed Sanu), but he's really got an impressive set of skills. He should be a bigger part of the offense, and if anyone on this list is going to grow into an every-week fantasy starter, my money is on Jones. While Jones has the highest ceiling, I think Riley Cooper may have the highest floor for the rest of this season. He's averaged six targets a game over the past four weeks, and he's a trustworthy red-zone target as well.
In addition to the guys who've mainly had one huge game so far, there are a number of wide receivers who've gotten hot over the last few weeks and who appear poised to score a lot of points in the second half of the season. Keenan Allen has taken over as the Chargers' WR1, Andre Johnson looks great catching balls from Case Keenum, and T.Y. Hilton should continue to get a lot of looks with Reggie Wayne out.
Where would you rank each of those guys among fantasy wide receivers going forward?
Ryan Hester: Despite him showing what he can do just one time, Hilton is a low-end WR1 in PPR leagues now that he's occupying Wayne's role and moving all over the field. Allen is a mid-level WR2 at his floor and can give you WR1 production in any given week. Even with no catches until a drive that began with 5:25 remaining in the second quarter and only going into half with three receptions for 43 yards, Allen finished as the no. six WR in PPR leagues and no. seven in standard scoring with eight catches, 128 yards, and a touchdown.
Andre Johnson obviously looked rejuvenated on Sunday night. Based on the nature of his scores (two being very long touchdowns) and his track record of not being a high-volume touchdown scorer or used heavily in the red zone, I think we've seen his last multi-touchdown game this season. He's still a mid-WR1 in PPR leagues though.
Chad Parsons: Andre Johnson is a strong WR1 with Keenum's willingness to throw the ball deep, something Matt Schaub was reluctant to do at times. Keenan Allen is in the WR10-15 mix as the clear lead receiver in San Diego. T.Y. Hilton is in the WR12-20 mix with more boom-or-bust weekly potential.
Greg Russell: Though I love Hilton as a receiver, the Colts have five games against top-ten pass defenses, and two more opponents are ranked eleventh and thirteenth. I am going to have to go with Andre Johnson over Hilton until we see how Hilton fares against defenses geared to stop him specifically, and Allen coming in third.
The biggest gap in Andre Johnson's stats has always been his touchdowns. While Matt Schaub would zero in on Johnson for a lot of receptions, there are few times when Schaub could hit Johnson in stride after he'd gotten behind a defense. Case Keenum is not the strongest armed quarterback, but he is showing good touch in dropping balls in overtop of defenders, and is more willing to take deep shots. Johnson's career-best touchdown total for a season is nine. I could see him approaching that in a half season with Keenum.
Jeff Pasquino: For the rest of the year, I would take Andre Johnson first because he has been a top-ten guy and the Texans are lacking in running back options right now — forcing them to throw. Defenses will be kept a little more honest if DeAndre Hopkins and Garrett Graham step up, but either way Johnson can get 100 yards a game if Keenum continues to play as he has been lately.
Hilton is the clear next choice for me, as he becomes the team's WR1 with Reggie Wayne out. Without the pedigree of Johnson, Hilton has to step up and prove that he can be consistent and beat top coverage on a weekly basis, but Andrew Luck can get him the ball 10-12 times a game for certain.
Allen is a solid third — but still a Top 20 option. With Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates also valid targets, Allen cannot expect 10 targets or more a week, but he is talented enough to have a 100-yard game more often than not. I would take any of these three on my team and start them as a WR2 without question on a weekly basis.
Will Grant: Johnson is probably a WR1, Hilton and Allen are both high WR2s.
I love T.Y. Hilton's dynasty value, but Jeff is right and Andre Johnson is the guy to have from that group. If the Houston offense struggles, Johnson is the guy that they are going to fall back on. Hilton was quiet in the first half of that game last week, then came on strong in the second half to rescue anyone who started him. He's a nice talent who might not catch seven balls and three touchdowns in every game, but he and Andrew Luck have a nice thing going and I like him over the long hall. Allen is no slouch either, but I just like those two a little better.
Do you have any hunches about which other wide receivers could heat up in the next couple weeks?
Ryan Hester: If the Kansas City offense ever had to throw the ball more than 35-40 times per game, Dexter McCluster would be in line for double-digit targets. Alex Smith doesn't throw well to the perimeter of the field, which is why Dwayne Bowe has struggled so much this season. Andy Reid has been working McCluster in more and more, beginning with his four-catch, 70-yard performance in Week seven. He followed that with seven receptions, 67 yards, and a touchdown in Week eight. Week nine was a dud, but he did get free for what looked like a sure touchdown only to drop the ball.
Kansas City's schedule coming up is rather easy as well. Here are the teams they play after their Week 10 bye for the rest of the fantasy season and their ranking in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers assuming half-point-per-reception scoring:
- Denver (6th-most)
- San Diego (5th)
- Denver (6th)
- Washington (3rd)
- Oakland (4th)
- Indianapolis (9th)
That's a dream schedule. And despite their undefeated record, Kansas City hasn't been sharp lately. That could lead to game scripts that have them throwing the ball more often than they have been.
Chad Parsons: Terrance Williams is a receiver that had a down week this past game, but one I expect to be a top-24 option most weeks down the stretch. Stephen Hill is a nearly forgotten redraft option that I expect to flash again in the coming weeks when he is physically back to 100 percent.
Jeff Pasquino: Reuben Randle leaps to mind if Victor Cruz is injured, and the Giants face a sieve dressed in Silver and Black this week that just gave up seven passing touchdowns to Nick Foles. I also like Nate Burleson to return to action soon, but my top pick to heat up here is Randle.
Will Grant: The word is probably out on him in most leagues, but I love what the Bears are doing with Alshon Jeffery. Brandon Marshall is going to draw the no. one defender, but Jeffery is showing some serious talent and he's dangerous as hell when he's working one on one. The Bears run him at least once a game now as well, and frequently motion him into position for an end-around. In the end zone, his size and athleticism make him a great target, and both Jay Cutler and Josh McCown know he's a solid option if Marshall isn't open. Jeffery is going to put up consistent numbers for the rest of the season, and I expect 4-5 catches and 70+ yards a game from him the rest of the way.
Who's the lead RB?
Who will score more fantasy points from this point forward?
Ryan Hester: I think that what we saw with Spiller last week was a sign of things to come. His ankle still isn't 100%, but for the first time in a while, it appears that his health is improving. He told the Buffalo News, "it's still not there, but it's definitely close. My cutting ability and exploding off it was good." Even if he's the "40" in a 60-40 split with Jackson, his explosiveness should lead him to more fantasy production.
Chad Parsons: Spiller. He is getting close to healthy and his ability to break the long gain giving him a weekly upside that few running backs can approach.
Jeff Pasquino: Buffalo has to see what the future holds for the younger talent, so that means Spiller has to be the guy the rest of the way. Fred Jackson is a solid contributor, but with him on the wrong side of 30 and the Bills at 3-6, you have to give the ball to Spiller. That means Spiller gets the vote here.
Maurile Tremblay: Both backs are versatile, talented all-around backs who are fairly interchangeable in the offense. Spiller has better big-play ability when he's healthy, though. It looks like he's rounding into shape, and once he can put the injuries behind him, he'll be the more productive fantasy RB down the stretch.
DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart?
Ryan Hester: Williams is older and less fresh from playing the first eight games of the season. Stewart had a hop in his step and ran well against Atlanta week. While this backfield is one to avoid completely if at all possible because it's shared four ways (including Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton), Stewart should be the guy you grab in any "if you're desperate" situations.
Chad Parsons: I agree with Ryan that Stewart makes this backfield more fantasy-unfriendly than ever. I like Stewart in PPR scoring of this backfield and Tolbert as a sneaky option in non-PPR leagues. Williams gets squeezed by the other two backs in all formats.
Jeff Pasquino: Yikes — tough call on this one. I like DeAngelo as a runner in general, but based on last week, Stewart is going to see more touches and more targets, so he gets the PPR nod. With Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert the top two goal line options, I think in non-PPR I would have Williams and Stewart closer, only because Williams has more explosive top-end speed and can break off a 50+ yard run, something Stewart cannot pull off.
Maurile Tremblay: I'm going with Stewart. Williams got more work last week as Stewart was eased into things in his first game back from injury, but Stewart looked like the better runner. If the Panthers go with the hot hand, I think that's more likely to be Stewart than Williams.
Pierre Thomas or Darren Sproles?
Ryan Hester: One of the bigger mysteries of the season is the way New Orleans is using (more specifically, not using) Sproles. Thomas is a steady part of the offense who is versatile enough to see touches regardless of gameplan. He's a safer bet to score more points the rest of the way.
Chad Parsons: Thomas has been a fantasy surprise this season with Sproles' struggles and Ingram's injury. Thomas will continue to get a healthy volume of work on the ground and through the air as an underrated RB2-type option.
Jeff Pasquino: I love Sproles in PPR, and Thomas is a situational back. The threat of Sean Payton working Mark Ingram into the mix will lower Thomas' value, but Sproles is a top option in the passing game, which makes him much more valuable. Drew Brees throws for 300 yards most every game, and having one of his favorite targets who can also run the ball 5-10 times a game makes me go with Sproles.
Maurile Tremblay: Thomas. So far this season, in any given week depending on the game plan, either Sproles and Thomas have been featured about evenly in the offense, or Thomas has gotten a much bigger share of the workload. We're in week ten, and I'm not expecting that to change. Sproles hasn't gotten a carry since week six, while Thomas is a significant part of the game plan week in and week out.
Danny Woodhead or Ryan Mathews?
Ryan Hester: This one seems to be the easiest of the bunch. Woodhead is a larger part of this offense when it's doing what it wants to do and when it's trailing in games. Due to the nature of the San Diego defense and the quality of their upcoming opponents, they could be in catch-up mode more often than not. Even in close games, this is an offense that is best when attacking defenses with the pass. The backs will rotate in close games, but Woodhead is more explosive than Mathews and can produce better stats even in the games when he gets fewer touches.
Chad Parsons: Woodhead all the way. Regardless of the San Diego game script, Woodhead is on the field quite a bit. He is used in the red zone and the hurry-up offense. He is a top-12 level play.
Greg Russell: Woodhead is a sign of the times, when the shift in emphasis on rules has allowed small, shifty players to prosper in the passing game. I would have to say Woodhead even if I did not think Mathews was still an injury waiting to happen.
Jeff Pasquino: Ryan Mathews got a big no-vote of confidence last week with the game on the (one-yard) line in Washington. Where did the ball go? Danny Woodhead, then Antonio Gates, then Keenan Allen. Mathews? Not a consideration. Woodhead is the guy to own in all formats, especially PPR.
Greg Russell: I think Ryan nailed it that Woodhead should be involved no matter how the game script goes, while Mathews is going to see games where his touches dwindle.
Maurile Tremblay: I think this one is a closer call than some of my colleagues do. The play-calling in the second half of the game at Washington was a real mystery, particularly on the goal line at the end. But in the couple games before that, Mathews had gotten 20+ carries and 100+ yards and looked strong. Woodhead is a much bigger part of the passing game, but Mathews should get the bulk of the work on the ground. If I had to choose between them, I'd choose Woodhead for his significantly higher floor, but I think Mathews has better upside potential.
Arian Foster or Ben Tate?
Ryan Hester: Unless he's healthy enough to play this week, I don't think Foster will play enough to outscore Tate the rest of the way. Tate is a good enough player to be rewarded with committee work at worst when (if) Foster is fully healthy. Injuries like hamstrings and backs don't seem like hurdles that can be cleared quickly.
Chad Parsons: Foster is the starter when healthy, which carries the weight for me. While Tate may see a majority of the backfield touches in a game or two the rest of the way, Foster will be the fantasy back to own for the number of games he is active.
Greg Russell: I hesitantly agree with Chad. I do expect Foster is going to miss another game or two, and I will not start him until he's successfully made it through a game fully intact. But that said, I expect Foster will be the starter for the majority of remaining games. He should outscore Tate enough to make up for anything other than an excessive amount of missed time.
Jeff Pasquino: I agree with most everyone else here — Foster when healthy, but if he is out, Tate is a solid option.
Eagles quarterbacks
Can we cut Michael Vick now in redraft leagues? (How about in dynasty?)
Ryan Hester: I'd have no problem cutting Vick in any format. He's simply a late-season stash at best, and there are more of those with higher potential at other positions. Players returning from injury like Andre Brown and Shane Vereen at running back have a better chance of helping you. Even handcuffs like Knile Davis of Kansas City and Rashad Jennings of Oakland could provide better fantasy value. Jennings will be an RB2/flex candidate starting this week with Darren McFadden hurt once again, and Davis could be the lead player in a running back-centric offense if Jamaal Charles ever went down. Keep in mind that Charles has left two games due to injury already this season.
Chad Parsons: I agree with Ryan. Vick is a luxury stash for the late-season push, but upside running backs are probably better use of the bench spots. In dynasty Vick is running out of time as an older player relying on his athleticism and he still struggles to actually throw the ball on time from the pocket. Vick is not worth more than a late-second, at best, in long-term leagues.
Greg Russell: In redraft I would cut Vick in anything other than a deep league that starts two quarterbacks. In dynasty I would still have to hold on to him. There are always more teams looking for a quarterback than there are quarterbacks worth starting. Vick will land somewhere, either as the starter or as someone to provide a serious challenge to another quarterback that a team is not sure of yet.
Jeff Pasquino: Vick is a clear cut drop — unless your top guy is Nick Foles, and then he is just an insurance policy.
Where do you rank Nick Foles this week against the Packers?
Ryan Hester: I think Foles is a top-seven quarterback play. Other than the obvious elite guys, he's behind players like Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo. But he's ahead of players like Robert Griffin III III, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, and Terrelle Pryor.
Chad Parsons: I fall more on the pessimistic side of the pendulum than Ryan. Foles would be in the upside QB2 mix weekly, even with a decent matchup against Green Bay this week. He has more 'dud' potential than most of the quarterbacks in the league and his upside is lower than the aberration of seven touchdowns against an Oakland defense that barely came out of the locker room this past week.
Jeff Pasquino: I think the Packers are going to blitz the living daylights out of Foles, who is a pocket passer and pretty sedentary. That's what I would do, and then actually have my secondary cover somebody on defense, unlike what Oakland did last week. I have Foles as a high end QB2 with low end QB1 upside.
Maurile Tremblay: I see Foles as a top-ten fantasy quarterback this week, but just barely. For all the talk of the Eagles' fast-paced offense, they've averaged only 64 offensive plays per game this season (not including sacks), which does not make them an outlier in that regard. The Packers' pass defense is close to average, maybe just below average. Foles has been inconsistent so far, but he showed enough last week that he's in my top ten this week.
Chris Johnson
Before his big week-nine outing, Chris Johnson looked pretty mediocre in the preceding four games. Has he turned the corner, or will he be unreliable the rest of the way?
Ryan Hester: With all of Tennessee's talking up of Shonn Greene, perhaps Johnson had a fire lit under him. Or perhaps, he played against an inconsistent defense that has shown tendencies to be porous. Johnson isn't as bad as his worst games this year, but he's not going to deliver this kind of performance again either. He's still an RB2 with RB1 upside due to his inconsistent big-play ability.
Chad Parsons: Johnson has an enviable schedule down the stretch. That said, Shonn Greene will get plenty of work in that backfield and Tennessee will not be in every game to stick with the running game for 30+ carries to go around. Johnson fits in the top-15 mix for running backs and his ability to break a long touchdown is the kind of impact that can win fantasy matchups down the stretch.
Greg Russell: I would consider last week to have been a flash in the pan for Johnson, one that I would not rely on repeating itself. He will have several games worth a fantasy start, but I expect teams relying on him will have as much disappointment as they do success. If they are counting on a repeat of this week, that disappointment will be even larger.
Jeff Pasquino: He is unreliable in my book. The Rams were soft against the run and Shonn Greene is still getting work. Throw in that Jake Locker can run as well and I don't see many 100-yard or 25+ touch games for Johnson.
Maurile Tremblay: I'm torn on this one. Johnson has been up-and-down for a few seasons now (and down with disappointing frequency), so I can see where Greg and Jeff are coming from. But I see the Titans' offense as being one on the rise, and I think Johnson will be a big part of that. I don't see Shonn Greene as a threat, but rather as a beneficial force that will help keep Johnson fresh. I think I ultimately side with Chad in considering Johnson to be a top 15 guy from here on out, and maybe top 10.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice
What are the odds that Maurice Jones-Drew or Ray Rice can turn things around and be productive for their fantasy owners down the stretch?
Ryan Hester: I'm not excited about either of their prospects. Jones-Drew plays for a team that is always trailing and can't use a balanced attack. It will be hard for him to get into a rhythm, and he's not the Jones-Drew of old in terms of skills. As for Rice, he has an obstacle of his own. His team's offensive line has been putrid this year, and Baltimore still seems to fall in love with the pass too often. Neither is more than an RB2, and neither has the high-end RB1 upside that a guy like Chris Johnson has.
Chad Parsons: I give Jones-Drew more of a shot than Rice. The Ravens look to be challenged to even average 4.0 yards-per-carry and Rice looks to be wearing ankle weights most of the time. Jones-Drew at least has little competitive in his backfield and has looked better of late. Neither should be counted on as anything but a low-RB2, but I would bet on Jones-Drew of the pair to exceed that level of production.
Greg Russell: I agree with both Ryan and Chad. There are different things holding back Jones-Drew and Rice, but both players face a pretty steep climb. Rice is a good reminder of just how important offensive line play is when we consider a running back's value. You would hope that Rice's receiving ability would provide some insulation should the running game struggle, but that can also be at the whim of the team's offensive play calling and game situations.
Jeff Pasquino: For MJD — not a chance now that Justin Blackmon is done for the year. Teams will stack the box against Jacksonville and dare them to throw.
For Ray Rice, he needs somebody else to step up in that offense aside from Torrey Smith. Marlon Brown is a good hope (and if Dennis Pitta gets back soon, even better) — but until Baltimore starts playing better, harder and with the lead, I don't see Ray Rice as a Top 15 guy.
Case Keenum vs. Matt Ryan
Will Case Keenum outscore Matt Ryan the rest of the way?
Ryan Hester: I think Keenum will outscore Ryan, and I don't know if it will be close. Keenum is playing inspired football, despite his team's unexpectedly bad record because he has something for which to play — a job next season. Ryan is playing uninspired football due to his team's unexpectedly bad record and the loss of his top two weapons. Keenum also has the easier schedule, with matchups like Jacksonville and Oakland upcoming and only this week at Arizona being somewhat difficult. Ryan's schedule is low-lighted by Seattle, New Orleans, and San Francisco. He also has a game against Tampa Bay, which means an increasingly healthier Darrelle Revis.
Chad Parsons: It is quite telling that we have even got to this point with the Atlanta offense. I will stick with Ryan as Roddy White looks to be a week or two away from returning and Steven Jackson is rounding into some form of being a productive player. Ryan is also aided by the fact that Atlanta's defense is pretty dreadful and will lead to plenty of volume for Ryan and the passing game.
Jeff Pasquino: Yes he will. Houston has to throw with banged up running backs (Foster and Ben Tate) and Atlanta is struggling to get healthy targets for Matt Ryan, who has lost a lot of confidence the last two weeks. Keenum can also run much better than Ryan, which elevates his fantasy value.
Who is TE3?
Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are in their own tier, way out in front of the rest of the pack. Who's your fantasy TE3 going forward?
Ryan Hester: Despite his ankle injury, I still think it's Julius Thomas on a tier of his own before the battle for TE4 pits guys like Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, Jordan Cameron, and Jordan Reed against one another.
Chad Parsons: Despite cooling off the past few weeks, Jordan Cameron still sits at TE3 on my board. He is one of the most athletic players at his position and is, at worst, the second option in the Cleveland passing game. He is one of the few tight ends with multiple-touchdown upside on a weekly basis.
Greg Russell: I would go with Jordan Cameron. Vernon Davis may face extra competition for targets as the 49ers get their injured receivers back. Julius Thomas would be the other candidate, but I think Cameron has the better chance of having his quarterback lock in on him. Only by a hair though, I'd be glad to have either on my fantasy team.
Jeff Pasquino: I have a few candidates. Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron and Jordan Reed are all right there for me. Thomas has to get the nod though simply because he has scored in six out of eight games so far, and that's hard to beat.
Maurile Tremblay: The cluster that includes Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, and Tony Gonzalez are bunched together pretty closely, I think. If I'd be pretty happy with any of them, but if I had to pick one, I'd feel most comfortable with Gates. He's fully healthy this season for the first time in years, and he's gotten double-digit targets in half of the team's games this season. He's got a longer track record than Reed, Cameron, or Thomas, and he's got an athletic advantage over Witten and Gonzalez.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.