As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Public Trend – 64% of the public bets favor Tampa Bay
Cleveland was hammered at home by the Chargers 38-14. The game was much worse in that Cleveland managed just two field goals until there were 12 minute left in the game. Cleveland’s offense struggled the whole game with Baker Mayfield having more interceptions than touchdowns and Duke Johnson Jr leading the team with just 36 rushing yards. Jarvis Landry and Antonio Calloway combined for just four receptions for 20 yards. Tampa Bay may have lost on the road last week in Atlanta, but their offense went crazy with Jameis Winston making his first start of the season. He put up almost 400 yards passing, including four passing touchdowns and chipped in another 31 yards on the ground. Peyton Barber also had 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Tampa Bay has the second worst defense in the league, averaging 440 yards allowed per game. They are also allowing almost 35 points per game, and have given up 32 more points than they’ve scored all season. Despite last week’s loss, the Browns have played tough all season, and they are actually 4-2 against the spread this season. The Buccaneers are just 2-3 ATS so far. Aside from the blowout last week, the Browns were averaging just 22 points per game allowed. With a 3.5 point spot, the scrappy Browns are in a great position to get back on track.
The Vegas line moved toward Cleveland as the money keeps flowing toward Tampa Bay. The Over/Under has moved up two points as well, with Vegas expecting this to be a shoot-out.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT CHICAGO BEARS
Photos provided by Imagn Images