DFS Roundtable: Quarterbacks to Trust

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Quarterbacks to Trust Chad Parsons Published 12/19/2019

Which quarterbacks are your favorite targets and fades for Week 16?

Jason Wood

Philip Rivers (Poor Week 15, rebound spot vs. Oakland)
The Chargers were among the league's biggest disappointments this season, and Rivers was a part of that because of poor decision-making. Fortunately, the Raiders are a "get right" defense and Rivers remains hyper-competitive. He'll want to finish the year on a high note and I think he could put up huge numbers this week. He's solidly in my cash and GPP build plans.

Dwayne Haskins (Low-level offense, exploitable Giants matchup)
He's an easy fade. Haskins hasn't played well, even if his statistical output has normalized of late. The matchup is great, sure, but this is a case of two bad teams playing in a meaningless game. You can't trust the game script either way.

Baker Mayfield (3 TDs, 4 INTs over last 3 games, vs. Baltimore)

Another easy fade. What has Mayfield done to instill confidence? There are a ton of great quarterback matchups this week, the only reason to consider Mayfield is that he'll be contrarian. And being contrarian for contrarian's sake is rarely a profitable decision.

Phil Alexander

  • Philip Rivers - Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler each have massive individual advantages over Oakland's defense. All of their paths intersect at the affordably priced Rivers.
  • Jacoby Brissett - This is a great spot to play Brissett in tournaments. Indianapolis is favored by a touchdown at home against a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road (Will Grier). The crowd will look to Marlon Mack first due to Carolina's bottom-ranked rush defense (DVOA), but Brissett can just as easily be the beneficiary of the short fields Grier figures to provide the Colts' offense.
  • Andy Dalton - It's hard to argue with Dalton's price on DraftKings ($5,200). An 18-20 point game is well within his range of outcomes against the Dolphins, which puts him in play for cash games.
  • Dwayne Haskins - He proved capable of capitalizing on an advantageous matchup last week but there just isn't much reason to come all the way down to Haskins with Dalton in the same price tier.

Dan Hindery

Philip Rivers is a solid option this week and one of my handful of favorite quarterback options on the slate. He is not likely to be in my cash-game or single-entry GPP lineups but at least one of his top targets probably will be. Oakland’s pass defense is weakest in the middle of the field. Rookie cornerback Trayvon Mullen is quietly emerging as a shutdown guy outside but the Raiders don’t have anyone who can effectively cover Keenan Allen.

Jacoby Brissett is a fade this week. Carolina’s defense has actually been above-average against opposing quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective over the past five weeks because almost all of their touchdowns allowed have come on the ground. I expect the Colts to employ a run-heavy offense and try to pound away at an undersized Carolina front.

Justin Howe

There are several strong QB plays this week, so not many will be on Philip Rivers in the midst of a lost Chargers season. Our Steve Buzzard currently projects him on 9% of DraftKings rosters, low enough to make him an interesting GPP play. He’s been careless and scattershot with the ball lately, but in DFS we chase volume, not efficiency. And Rivers throws plenty in neutral/negative game flow - he’s topped 300 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. Besides, a date with the Raiders pass defense tends to create efficiency on its own.

Dwayne Haskins is a perma-fade, even when there’s salary relief. His offense is low-paced (dead-last in snaps). His arm is low-volume (28 attempts a start) and low-efficiency (6.6 yards per attempt). He doesn’t supplement with much rushing (13 yards a game). His No. 2 wideout is Steven Sims. You give me a selling point here.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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