With 256 regular-season games in the books, now we turn our full attention to the playoffs. This year’s field is particularly strong, especially in the NFC where the Saints, despite finishing with a 13-3 record, have been consigned to a wildcard game. The AFC shouldn’t be completely dismissed either, however, as the standard-bearer of the conference for so many years, New England, must traverse their own obstacle course this weekend, the first time in 10 seasons they have not progressed straight to the divisional round. In other words, game on.
Fewer games on the docket means the Vegas sharps have ample opportunity to drill down and find every edge, so picking the right spots is crucial not only this week but throughout the playoffs. My predecessor on this column Jeff Pasquino often found success during the postseason with this column. My hope is that I will be able to take up that mantle after a regular season with a 52.7% overall winning percentage – good, but not great.
As you would expect in playoff clashes, no game features a double-digit favorite, but there are ample teaser opportunities with the lines that Vegas has thrown out. Without further ado, let us dive in and start the postseason off in style.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
BUFFALO at HOUSTON (-3 to -2.5) (Over/Under 41.5)
(Saturday 4.35 pm Eastern, ESPN/ABC)
The last time the Bills were in the playoffs was just two seasons ago, but the difference between then and now is stark. Sean McDermott’s team played above itself in 2017, being swiftly dismissed by the Jaguars in the first round, but the 2019 version of the team has more grit, more panache and, crucially, more experience. Throughout the season they have thrived in the critical moments, winning at Pittsburgh and Dallas and playing New England close on two occasions. Buffalo’s TreDavious White has been among the league’s best cornerbacks this season, recording six picks and 17 passes defended. His match-up with Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins will be worth the asking price. Josh Allen has shown maturity in big spots this season, but one must wonder whether the bright lights of his first playoff game will affect his composure.
The Texans need no introduction to the wildcard round. The early Saturday time slot has become their go-to but playing at home hasn’t meant guaranteed success. Indeed, the Colts made short work of their division rivals in the wildcard round last season. This game has something of the same aura, so the emphasis for Houston will be to use the ‘been there-done it’ factor to gain an edge. The Texans defense has flopped on multiple occasions this season, surrendering 388.3 yards per game and 24.1 points per game. Compare that to Buffalo’s 16.2 points per game and suddenly there’s a real opening for the visitors to hit Houston with some déjà vu. If you can get the Bills at +3, grab it or wait until that line comes in. Buffalo 19 Houston 14.
Key stats:
- Under Bill O’Brien (dating back to 2014), the Texans are just 23-27-1 (46%) against the spread as the home team.
- The Bills are 12-7-2 (63.2%) against the spread as the road underdog with Sean McDermott at the helm.
Pick: Buffalo
TENNESSEE at NEW ENGLAND (-5.5 to -4.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
(Saturday 8.15 pm Eastern, CBS)
It’s a trap, surely. It must be. The Patriots are playing on wildcard weekend for the first time in 10 years and their test appears to be a daunting one against a red-hot Titans team that went 5-3 on the road this season. Vegas has deigned to make the Patriots just 5.5-point favorites – and that number has shifted after money poured in on Tennessee. Had the Patriots not lost to the Dolphins last week, this line would have been at least a touchdown. For that reason, this profiles as a perfect spot to take advantage of an overreaction by the market. The merits of trusting the Titans are completely understandable; they have the third-most rushing yards per game (138.9) with Derrick Henry toting the rock, their defense has enough talent to cause problems and Ryan Tannehill is playing like a Pro Bowl player.
But it’s the Patriots in Foxborough, folks. We have seen this well-worn script so many times in the past. While the public desperately wants to see the Super Bowl champions dethroned on the opening weekend of the tournament, history is instructive and overplaying our hand could cost us dearly. The Patriots have tailed off defensively against better opponents, but they have still allowed just 95.5 rushing yards per game and just 14.1 points per game. They still have one of the most experienced quarterbacks in playoff history. They still have Bill Belichick, who has constructed game plans against tougher opponents. Expect Stephon Gilmore to take away Corey Davis, while a double on rookie A.J. Brown will keep him under wraps. The focus will be on staying disciplined in the front seven to take away lanes for Henry – and the Patriots have the hogs up front to do just that. Tennessee 17 New England 28.
Key stats:
- Since 2003, the Patriots have covered the spread as home favorites 58.4% of the time, with an average margin of victory of 11.7 points. No team has a better record over that period.
- Tennessee’s offense has been consistent whether at home or on the road; in Nashville, they have scored 25 points per game, while on their travels that number has increased to 25.2.
Pick: New England
MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (-8) (Over/Under 47)
(Sunday 1.05 pm Eastern, FOX)
Vegas hasn’t budged from this line and you can understand why: The Saints are one of the toughest nuts to crack at home. This line is essentially daring people to bet against them, with the quarterback on the other side of this match-up likely playing a factor in why the line hasn’t moved. Kirk Cousins, rightly or wrongly, has been the easy scapegoat whenever the Vikings struggle. A convenient pinata, Cousins has played just one postseason game – and lost. His counterpart Drew Brees, on the other hand, has played 15 games, going 6-2 at home and 2-5 on the road. Therein lies the rub in this clash: the experience factor and the home-field advantage are massive advantages in New Orleans’ favor. They could be decisive.
The argument for the Saints is straightforward: an offense that makes few mistakes (Brees has a 1.1% interception rate) with an ability to turn it on and score in many ways, especially at home, buttressed by a defense that allows just 91.3 rushing yards per game. Dalvin Cook might have a tough time and his success is pivotal to the Vikings’ chances. If he is fully recovered from his injury, the Vikings could keep things interesting, but the likelihood is that the natives will be partying well before the clock ticks to triple zeros. The Saints are a divisional round team playing in the wildcard round; expect them to flex their muscles. New Orleans 35 Minnesota 17.
Key stats:
- The Saints are 53-51-1 (51%) against the spread as the home favorite since Sean Payton took over, with an average margin of victory of seven points.
- The Vikings have a +11 turnover ratio, ranking fifth in the league and four behind their opponents New Orleans.
Pick: New Orleans
SEATTLE (-1.5) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 46)
(Sunday 4.40 pm Eastern, NBC)
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has played 13 postseason games in his career, winning eight. Five of those wins, however, have come at home. A cross-country trip isn’t what Seattle had planned, especially after the controversial end to Sunday night’s clash against the 49ers. It really is a league of inches, and the Seahawks were on the wrong end of the measuring stick. Still, their pedigree in playoff situations should serve them well as they face a team they defeated 17-9 earlier this season. The loss of Chris Carson has taken the hammer out of the backfield, but Marshawn Lynch could do some damage if he gets into a rhythm. The bulk of the offensive workload may fall on Wilson’s shoulders, however, with the Eagles stubborn against the run (90.1 rushing yards per game allowed).
Vegas originally had the Eagles down as short favorites, but clearly action has swung that the other direction. Perhaps it is the betting public realising the talent discrepancy. Unlike the line move in the Patriots/Titans game, though, the underdog is playing at home here – and you know they love adopting the underdog role. Might we see some diehard Eagles fans donning their dog masks from the Super Bowl season, hoping to rekindle the spirit? On the field, yet again this will be a case of how far Carson Wentz can carry the offense. The Seahawks defense has given up 24.9 points per game, so opportunities will be there for Wentz and his band of merry receivers. The health of Zach Ertz will bear watching, though injuries to Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks (lost for the season) and Miles Sanders (appearing more optimistic) may be just as critical. But there’s just something about this Eagles team – and the points are hard to turn down. Philadelphia 21 Seattle 20.
Key stats:
- Since 2016, the Eagles have covered 55.6% of the time as home underdogs (5-4 record).
- The Seahawks defense has given up 28.6 points per game at home compared to just 21.1 on the road.
Pick: Philadelphia
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Buffalo, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia
WILD CARD PLAYS
As with the regular season format, this article will give out not only the Best Bets for the postseason but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The lines this week provide good opportunities to tease the lines through the key numbers of 3 and 7, while the totals are also tempting.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- SATURDAY WILDCARD DOUBLE (2.25-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND ‘FOR THE WIN’ (-225) vs. TENNESSEE
- BUFFALO ‘FOR THE WIN’ (+125) at HOUSTON
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.49-1 ODDS):
- NEW ORLEANS (-2) vs. MINNESOTA
- PHILADELPHIA (+7.5) vs. SEATTLE
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) vs. TENNESSEE
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM OVER/UNDER SPECIAL (2.61-1 ODDS):
- BUFFALO at HOUSTON – UNDER 43.5
- TENNESSEE at NEW ENGLAND – UNDER 44
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM WILDCARD SPECIAL (19-1 ODDS)
- BUFFALO ‘FOR THE WIN’ (+125) at HOUSTON
- LINE/TOTAL POINTS DOUBLE: NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) & UNDER 44
- NEW ORLEANS ‘FOR THE WIN’ (-420) vs. MINNESOTA
- SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA – UNDER 45
RESULTS
Last Week / Regular Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-9
- SEASON OVERALL: 135-131 (52.7%)
- BEST BETS: 32-33 (49.1%), last week 2-2
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 42-38 (52.5%), last week 2-3
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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