Against The Spread Pool: Week 7

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Week 6 was a bit of a rough patch for the staff, as only Andy Hicks was able to hit the double digit level of correct picks as Andy won the week with a record of 10-4. Alex Miglio and Justin Howe were one game behind (9-5) with Aaron Rudnicki (8-6) the only other staffer with a winning set of picks. Four of the top six games for the staff were losses for the group, as upsets of the Chargers (16 losses for the group), Atlanta (13) and Dallas (13) along with a close call for Green Bay (16) more than offset two strong wins for the group with New England (16) and New Orleans (15) both winning and covering the spread. Looking at the overall group record, Week 6 was another tough week (128-138, 48.1%), pulling the overall record for the staff to 36 games below 50% (856-892, 49.0%). Table 1 highlights the nine staffers with winning records (at least 46 wins) for the season, and four staffers are beating Las Vegas (over 52.3%) with 50 or more wins this year. Andy Hicks leads the way with 56 wins, well ahead of Alex Miglio (52), Aaron Rudnicki (50) and James Brimacombe (50). Six weeks are done, but there are still 11 to go. How will it all play out? Let's start finding out by taking a look at the Week 7 selections.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

The staff was clearly scratching their collective heads as there is no consensus at all for the Week 7 picks. No team was picked more than 13 times out of 18 total sets of picks (one staffer missed the deadline). Six teams tied for the top selection (13): Kansas City (at Denver on Thursday), Miami (at Buffalo), Jacksonville (at Cincinnati), New Orleans (at Chicago), the Chargers (at Tennessee) and the Giants (vs. Arizona). What is notable here is that all but the Giants are on the road, and that speaks to the trend for Week 7 - road teams. Only three home teams were "majority" picks, with the Giants joined by slight favorites for the group with Green Bay (vs. Oakland) and Seattle (vs. Baltimore) both getting 10 choices - barely more than the underdogs in both contests. Six road underdogs were also favored by the staff, with Minnesota (12, at Detroit), Houston (11, at Indianapolis) and Philadelphia (10, at Dallas) joining Miami, New Orleans and the Chargers. This could be a wild week for the NFL and the road teams, but with picks split so evenly, not much change should be in store for the group overall. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how the games and the week plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

More than a quarter of the NFL season is already complete, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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