Eliminator Pool: Week 13

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

The staff was close to a perfect week with a dominant win by Cleveland over the hapless Miami Dolphins, a road victory for Seattle in windy Philadelphia and a winning field goal on the final play by Wil Lutz to give the Saints a win over Carolina, but Detroit's stumble in Washington kept two staffers (Will Grant, Justin Howe) from securing another correct pick. Those two losses shook up the standings, especially at the top as now only four staffers - Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, Sean Settle, and Andy Hicks - have just one loss this season. Justin falls back one place to join five other staffers with two losses, and all of them have a good shot to win the league this year. Five weeks left, so let's talk some turkey and take a look at the Week 13 picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 13 looks a bit harder this week, as there are not too many games with big favorites on the docket despite every NFL team finally back in action. Three games have teams listed as a touchdown or more favorite this week: Kansas City (-9.5) hosting Oakland, Carolina (-9.5) hosting Washington and the Eagles (-9.5) traveling to Miami. Both the Chiefs and the Eagles may have been used early in most pools, as 14 of the 17 staffers in this contest no longer have Philadelphia as an option. Kansas City should be seen a bit more often this week as a selection, and only 6 of 17 of the Footballguys' staff have used the Chiefs so far, but Kansas City does have some additional good matchups down the stretch. The most likely choice this week is Carolina. Only two of the staff went with the Panthers already this year, and this is a spot where the Panthers are likely to be favored the most for the remainder of this season. This is a must-win game for Carolina and Washington is just 2-9 with close wins over weak competition (Miami, Detroit). Expect a lot of Survivor pool players to be rooting for Christian McCaffrey this Sunday.

Wednesday Morning Update: The (very early) picks are all in, and as noted they are due early Wednesday this week with Thanksgiving less than a full day away. and they are mostly targeted on two of the expected teams - Carolina (8) and Kansas City (2). One of the staffers in the lead, Sean Settle, had already used the Panthers, so he chose to go with the second-most popular pick this week, Green Bay (4) on the road at the Giants. The Packers are looking to bounce back after a big loss to San Francisco on Sunday Night Football, and a trip to New Jersey may be just what the doctor ordered. The only other team chosen by the staff for Week 13 was the Jets, with both Andrew Garda and Mark Wimer deciding to go not only for the Jets but against the winless Bengals with this semi-contrarian pick. Four different teams are on the list for Week 13, so a perfect week is certainly attainable for the staff if Carolina, Green Bay, Kansas City, and the New York Jets all take care of business this weekend.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Time to take stock of where we are with just five games and picks to go. For many of you, the end of your Survivor pool is close, so the first rule of thumb is to not get too cute this time of year - get to the end, any way you can. Secondly, if it is a bigger prize (you can decide if the prize is big, but any amount with a comma should qualify) - consider "chopping the pot" if just two or three teams remain. Unless you see an easier path for your team than the other players, taking 33-50% of a big prize is a nice Christmas bonus. That brings me to the third and final point for this week - look ahead and see not only what you plan to pick for this week but for all of December, and then see if the remaining teams have mostly used those teams. If they have, great - you have an advantage. If not, go back to that "chop the pot" idea - or brush up on your game theory and start thinking of taking different teams that the remaining players cannot use. You have to hope not only for victories for you but losses for the opponents - and that means taking different teams than they select.

Now, for this week, I am looking squarely at Carolina. Not only are they big home favorites against Washington, but they are likely to be underdogs in all of their remaining games (at Atlanta, vs. Seattle, at Indianapolis and the home finale against New Orleans). Kansas City is a team to save for later - either Week 15 against Denver or Week 17 against the Chargers, plus the Raiders are a dangerous divisional foe. Contrarian but solid choices this week include the Bears at Detroit (but Thanksgiving in Detroit can be tricky, even more than a typical road Thursday contest) or the Saints (and they do have favorable Week 15 and Week 17 matchups). The Jets in Cincinnati may be tempting, but that is a risky play. Lastly, Green Bay is favored to rebound on the road against the Giants after a tough loss to the 49ers, but the Packers host that same Washington team I am targeting next week in Lambeau. Fade Washington, likely this week and next.

The Pick: Carolina Panthers

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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