For the past several years, I have been running several staff Survivor Pools. For those who are not familiar with the concept, it is pretty simple - pick a winning NFL team each week. The catch is that you cannot use a team more than once all season. Lose and you are out. Hence - "Survivor", or "Eliminator" pools.
I've done some prep work each year in getting ready for the coming NFL season. I have outlined in the past my strategy for the general planning for Survivor Pools, and I will continue to review and refine that process. I like to read plenty of other people's thoughts on football and strategy, but one article caught my eye and sparked a new idea. Dave Larkin (right here at Footballguys) wrote an interesting article about the win totals that are published each year for NFL teams, and that gave me a few thoughts. What if I took those numbers and tried to forecast the best matchups throughout the season? Could I find the easy games to pick, forecast the landmine weeks, and maybe find a few diamonds in the rough? I think so, so this is my first attempt at doing just that. Stick with me as I go through this because I think the chart at the end of the article could be worth the price of the Insider Pro membership all by itself (yes, I'm boasting, but I think it is really, really valuable).
So here was my plan - break down the entire NFL schedule and use Las Vegas to help me out. We do this all the time in fantasy, daily or season long. The guys that run the sportsbooks in Las Vegas are sharpest of the sharps, so why not use their numbers to start our analysis? The first step was to assign every NFL team a number equal to their Over/Under line for wins for the coming season, and then to just compare each matchup for all 256 games. Now, there are a few wrinkles, mostly due to suspensions and changes since the numbers came out, but this is a reasonable start of a baseline to figuring out a plan for the Survivor season.
Let us start the breakdown for the 2019 season by looking at the expected wins set by Las Vegas. Sometimes these numbers can be challenging to find, but Betonline.ag offered up a very good option this year for Over/Under totals for team wins. Table 1 summarizes these numbers:
|
Team
|
Expected Winds
|
Team
|
Expected Wins
|
|
New England
|
11.5
|
Carolina
|
8
|
|
Philadelphia
|
10.5
|
Houston
|
8
|
|
Kansas City
|
10.5
|
NY Jets
|
7.5
|
|
LA Rams
|
10
|
Buffalo
|
7.5
|
|
LA Chargers
|
10
|
Jacksonville
|
7.5
|
|
New Orleans
|
10
|
Denver
|
7
|
|
Indianapolis
|
10
|
Detroit
|
7
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
9
|
Tennessee
|
6.5
|
|
Green Bay
|
9
|
Washington
|
6.5
|
|
Minnesota
|
9
|
Tampa Bay
|
6.5
|
|
Dallas
|
9
|
Oakland
|
6
|
|
Baltimore
|
9
|
NY Giants
|
6
|
|
Chicago
|
9
|
Cincinnati
|
5.5
|
|
Cleveland
|
9
|
Arizona
|
5.5
|
|
Atlanta
|
8.5
|
Miami
|
4.5
|
|
San Francisco
|
8.5
|
||
|
Seattle
|
8.5
|
Table 1: Expected Wins for All 32 NFL Franchises in 2019
Next comes the math part, where we take one team's expected wins and compare it to their opponent's number. Table 2 presents the results:
|
Team
|
W01
|
W02
|
W03
|
W04
|
W05
|
W06
|
W07
|
W08
|
W09
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
|
ARI
|
-1.5
|
-4
|
-2.5
|
-3
|
-0.5
|
-3
|
-1
|
-5
|
-3
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
BYE
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-4
|
|
ATL
|
-1
|
-2
|
-2
|
2
|
0
|
2.5
|
-0.5
|
0
|
BYE
|
-2
|
0
|
2
|
-1.5
|
0.5
|
-0.5
|
1
|
1.5
|
|
BAL
|
4
|
3.5
|
-2
|
0
|
-0.5
|
3.5
|
0
|
BYE
|
-2.5
|
3
|
1
|
-0.5
|
0.5
|
1
|
1.5
|
-0.5
|
0
|
|
BUF
|
-0.5
|
1
|
2
|
-4
|
0.5
|
BYE
|
3
|
-3
|
1
|
-2
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
-2
|
-1.5
|
-2
|
-4.5
|
0
|
|
CAR
|
-1
|
1.5
|
2
|
-0.5
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
BYE
|
-1
|
1.5
|
-1.5
|
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
1.5
|
-1
|
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
-2
|
|
CHI
|
0
|
1.5
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
BYE
|
-1
|
-1
|
-2
|
2
|
-0.5
|
3
|
1.5
|
0
|
-0.5
|
-1.5
|
-0.5
|
|
CIN
|
-3.5
|
-3
|
-2.5
|
-4
|
0
|
-4
|
-2
|
-3.5
|
BYE
|
-3.5
|
-1
|
-3.5
|
-2
|
-4
|
-6
|
0.5
|
-3.5
|
|
CLE
|
2.5
|
1
|
0
|
-0.5
|
0
|
0.5
|
BYE
|
-3
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
0
|
4.5
|
-0.5
|
3.5
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
|
DAL
|
3
|
2
|
4.5
|
-1.5
|
0
|
1
|
-1.5
|
BYE
|
2.5
|
0
|
1.5
|
-3
|
1.5
|
-0.5
|
0
|
-2
|
2.5
|
|
DEN
|
0.5
|
-2
|
-2.5
|
-0.5
|
-3.5
|
0.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-2
|
BYE
|
-2.5
|
-1
|
-3
|
-1.5
|
-4
|
0
|
1
|
|
DET
|
1
|
-3
|
-4
|
-3.5
|
BYE
|
-2.5
|
-2
|
1
|
0.5
|
-2.5
|
-2
|
0
|
-2
|
-2.5
|
0.5
|
-0.5
|
-2
|
|
GB
|
-0.5
|
0
|
2
|
-1.5
|
-0.5
|
2
|
3
|
-2
|
-1.5
|
1
|
BYE
|
0
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
0
|
-0.5
|
1.5
|
|
HOU
|
-2.5
|
0.5
|
-2.5
|
0
|
-0.5
|
-3
|
-2.5
|
2
|
0.5
|
BYE
|
-1.5
|
-2
|
-3.5
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1.5
|
|
IND
|
-0.5
|
3
|
1.5
|
4
|
-1
|
BYE
|
2
|
3
|
0.5
|
5.5
|
2.5
|
1.5
|
3.5
|
3
|
-0.5
|
2
|
2
|
|
JAX
|
-3
|
-1
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
-2.5
|
1.5
|
0
|
-0.5
|
BYE
|
-3
|
0.5
|
1
|
-2.5
|
1
|
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
KC
|
2.5
|
4
|
1.5
|
3
|
0.5
|
2.5
|
3
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
3.5
|
0.5
|
BYE
|
4.5
|
-1.5
|
3.5
|
1
|
0.5
|
|
LAC
|
0
|
2.5
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
0.5
|
1
|
3.5
|
-0.5
|
BYE
|
2.5
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
-1
|
|
LAR
|
0.5
|
-1
|
-0.5
|
2.5
|
0
|
0.5
|
0
|
3.5
|
BYE
|
-0.5
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
0.5
|
-0.5
|
0
|
3.5
|
|
MIA
|
-4.5
|
-7
|
-5
|
-5.5
|
BYE
|
-2
|
-3.5
|
-5
|
-3
|
-6
|
-3
|
-5
|
-6
|
-3.5
|
-2
|
-1
|
-7.5
|
|
MIN
|
0.5
|
-0.5
|
3
|
-0.5
|
2.5
|
-1.5
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
-2
|
-0.5
|
2
|
BYE
|
0
|
2
|
-1.5
|
0
|
0
|
|
NE
|
2.5
|
6.5
|
4
|
3.5
|
4.5
|
5.5
|
3.5
|
2.5
|
2
|
BYE
|
0.5
|
2.5
|
3
|
1
|
5.5
|
4
|
7
|
|
NO
|
2
|
0.5
|
1
|
1
|
3.5
|
2
|
0.5
|
4.5
|
BYE
|
1.5
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
1.5
|
0
|
3
|
1.5
|
|
NYG
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-1
|
-0.5
|
-3
|
-6
|
0.5
|
-1.5
|
-3
|
-2
|
BYE
|
-3.5
|
-3
|
-5
|
1.5
|
-1
|
-4.5
|
|
NYJ
|
0
|
-1.5
|
-4.5
|
BYE
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-4
|
-0.5
|
2.5
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
3
|
-2
|
-1.5
|
-0.5
|
|
OAK
|
-1
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
-3
|
BYE
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-1
|
-4
|
0.5
|
-2
|
-5
|
-0.5
|
-1.5
|
-4.5
|
-1.5
|
|
PHI
|
4
|
1.5
|
3.5
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
2.5
|
1.5
|
BYE
|
-1
|
2
|
5.5
|
4.5
|
3.5
|
1.5
|
4
|
|
PIT
|
-3
|
0.5
|
0
|
3.5
|
0
|
-1.5
|
BYE
|
4.5
|
-1
|
0
|
-0.5
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
1.5
|
1
|
-0.5
|
|
SEA
|
3
|
-1
|
-1.5
|
2.5
|
-0.5
|
-1
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
2
|
-0.5
|
BYE
|
-2.5
|
-0.5
|
-1
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
|
SF
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
-0.5
|
BYE
|
-0.5
|
-1
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
2.5
|
0
|
3
|
-0.5
|
-1
|
-2
|
0
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
|
TB
|
-2
|
-2
|
0.5
|
-3
|
-4
|
-1.5
|
BYE
|
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
1
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
-1
|
-1.5
|
-2
|
|
TEN
|
-3
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
-1
|
-1
|
-3.5
|
0
|
-2
|
-4
|
BYE
|
-1
|
-4
|
0
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
-2
|
|
WAS
|
-4.5
|
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
0
|
-5
|
1.5
|
-2
|
-3
|
-1.5
|
BYE
|
-1
|
-0.5
|
-2
|
-3
|
-4
|
0.5
|
-3
|
Table 2 - The 2019 NFL Schedule Using Team Win Differentials
|
Team
|
W01
|
W02
|
W03
|
W04
|
W05
|
W06
|
W07
|
W08
|
W09
|
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
Total
|
|
4+
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
22
|
|
3.5
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
1
|
15
|
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
27
|
|
2.5
|
3
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
23
|
|
Totals
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
7
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
87
|
Table 3 - Weekly Schedule by Graded Matchups
A few questions arose based on these numbers - what is a good matchup? If a team expected to win 10 games faces a team expected to win only three, of course, that is a good one - but what about 9 vs. 7 or 8 vs. 6? Great questions, so the first thing to consider is to not only look at what the numbers came out to be, but also to try and draw a few lines in the sand. After looking at all 256 matchups, one adjustment was made for each team's number, and that was to add 1/2 to their total if they were the home team. You can make an argument as to what that number should be, but 1/2 a win seemed reasonable. Below is the first version of the chart that resulted, with some highlights to point out the big disparities.
Finally here is Table 3, which provides a summary of each week by matchup category, where dark blue (4+ difference) is better than medium blue (3.5), which is better than light blue (3) and very light blue (2.5). Targeting teams in that color order can really help out a successful Survivor weekly plan in the preseason.
Viewing Tables 2 and 3, quite a few things jump out for this year. First, only 22 of 256 games (8.5%) have a margin of four or higher. That is similar to 2018 (only 17 of 256, 6.6%) but both seasons projected as VERY different than the number in both 2017 (41) and 2016 (42), which is the first sign that 2019 might be a very difficult year in Survivor Pools. As you might expect, the high margin games are the matchups we really want to target, if possible - but we cannot pick against Miami every week. After all, the Dolphins will win a few games, and we would very likely be reusing several teams if we did just that. The games at "3.5" (15 contests),"3" (27 matchups) and "2.5" (23 more games) add up to a total of 65, or just over 25% of the total schedule, and now we have eliminated nearly two-thirds of the games in the regular season. This is another sign that 2019 will be tough, as in the past three seasons the games at "3" or better were 19% (2018), 28% (2017) and 31% (2016), while this year's schedule has 64 games in these three best categories, which is exactly 25%. That is why we have to occasionally dip down to those "2.5" games. The big takeaway so far - 2019 is going to be a very difficult year for Survivor pools, and planning is paramount for success in the coming season.
Visually I like Table 2 because I can easily see which weeks are going to be tough to navigate. For example, Weeks 7, 9 and 11 have zero green squares, so these are going to require more planning and homework. The weeks with a lot of teams on a bye should be pitfalls since there are fewer teams to consider, and this correlates well with the three weeks just mentioned (Week 7, 9 and 11 all have four teams on a bye week). Oddly enough, the one week where six teams have the week off is Week 10, but fortunately, the Colts host Miami, resulting in the one critical green square for the week. Knowing that these four weeks are going to be challenging gives us a great head start on picking key teams to reserve for those tougher slates of games.
One last point about the numbers that I chose to highlight (game differentials of 2.5 or more) and the 0.5 margin for a home team - there are more algebraic equations that can be used from Las Vegas to see if these numbers really do make sense. We have several unknowns here in August, but we do know what the sportsbooks have told us about the season-long aspect of teams via the win totals and also the opening lines for Week 1 matchups. By taking those 16 games for Week 1, I was able to compare the current spread of each game for all of the 16 contests. Focusing on the six games where the point spreads are 6 points or more, the correlation to the first chart is very strong - Philadelphia has the highest green score for Week 1 (a green "4") and is a -9 point favorite at home against Washington, while Baltimore is also a "4" but only a 4.5 favorite in Miami. Three other teams are favored by at least six points, and all of them look good against the chart. Seattle is a 9-point home favorite against the Bengals, and they are a "3" in Table 2, while Dallas is favored by 7.5 in their home opener against the Giants. Dallas also scores well on the Table with a "3" for Week 1. Lastly, we have the Saints at home on Monday Night Football against Houston, where New Orleans is a 7-point favorite and also is listed as a "2" on the chart. In fact, every team highlighted for Week 1 in Table 2 with a 2.5 score or higher made this list, except for a near-miss of the Browns (a 5.5-point favorite at home against Tennessee) and the road-favorite Kansas City Chiefs, who are just a 4-point favorite in Jacksonville. Overall this is quite a result and an endorsement for Table 2 and this method, as 5 of 6 bigger favorites are directly pointed out in the chart as teams to focus on for Eliminator selections. So overall the chart looks like a great start for preparing for Survivor planning for the regular season and targeting blue or green squares should lead to finding favorites in the range of a touchdown or more. By using another conversion table, again supplied by our friends in Las Vegas, an NFL game with a point spread of 6 or 7 points implies a money line of -300 to -360 towards the favored team. That translates to a likelihood of winning the game around 70-75% of the time. That's exactly what we were looking for - games with high probabilities of winning for the targeted team.
I hope that you found this analysis and table useful, and I welcome all comments and feedback on the results.
Good luck this year.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
