Eliminator Pool: Week 8

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

For the first time this season, the staff had a perfect week! Week 7 was rewarding for everyone, and all six teams took care of business, starting with the four bigger favorites (Saints, Chiefs, Bills, and Chargers) even though it was a close call for New Orleans against Carolina. From Thursday (Eagles over Giants) to Monday (Rams over Bears), the staff nailed all six winners and logged a clean sweep. The group has to recover quickly and not get too confident, as the level of difficulty will increase, so let's take a look and see what NFL Week 8 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 8 has a clear choice as one of the worst teams travels to take on the Super Bowl champions. Kansas City (-19.5) is a huge favorite at home against the New York Jets, and the Money Line for the Chiefs (-2400 to -3000) implies that the Jets have at best a 4% chance to win. Those extreme numbers are rare in the NFL, so expect most everyone that has Kansas City left as a choice to take them this week (Note - seven of the staff have already used the Chiefs, so it will be interesting what team that they choose). As for contrarian picks, the next-best choice is Tampa Bay (-10.5, -540 to -600), as they travel to take on the Giants on Monday Night Football. Only two other teams are favored by five or more points in Week 8, so the choices are rather few. Green Bay (-6.5, -300) hosts the Vikings in a divisional clash, while the Titans (-6, -240 to -260) head to Cincinnati. Both teams are reasonable picks but not nearly as clear cut as the Chiefs or Buccaneers. These four teams should comprise most, if not all, of our staff picks in Week 8.

The picks are due in late on Wednesday night, and many of the picks did land on the two top teams mentioned earlier. The Chiefs received nine picks, while Tampa Bay was a reasonably close second with seven selections from the staff. Both the Eagles and Tennessee earned two selections, while Green Bay and the Rams (at Miami, -3.5 and -180 Money Line) received just one vote each. Philadelphia is an interesting pick as Andy Dalton may or may not start for the Cowboys, which explains the wide range in point spread (-3.5 to -7.5) and Money Line (-175 to -330) and adds risk to picking the game this early in the week. Some very interesting picks in Week 8 here with six different teams chosen, which certainly could make things interesting come next Tuesday in another exciting week in the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: The streak continues, and who am I to buck the clear pick for Week 8. A bad team visits a great team, which is expected to win 95% or more of the time. What is not to like? Don't over-think this week.

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Hicks: I’m saving the Chiefs for a matchup worthy of them. I have four strong favorites available to choose from in Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee. Although Dallas is a mess, there is a chance they find something in a divisional matchup, especially with Mike McCarthy challenging the team's manhood after failing to react after the Dalton hit. I can’t take Tampa Bay cause the Giants like beating Tom Brady, but I will go with Tennessee against the Bengals. The Bengals just don’t know how to win and the Titans could be undefeated if they had a reliable kicker.

The Pick: Tennessee Titans

Jeff Haseley: I have Kansas City open to use, but I'm going with Tampa Bay over the Giants. The Bucs are miles ahead of the Giants in terms of talent, coaching, experience, and knowledge of how to win games. Bucs will be my pick. I'll save the Chiefs for later when I really need a must-win.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Will Grant: Hard to imagine anyone not taking Tampa or KC this week. Both are coming off big wins last week where they scored more than 40 and both are facing opponents who give up a ton of points this year. KC is probably the safer choice, but I'm going to go with Tampa instead. The Giants have been close in their last three games, but they've all been against weak division rivals. Against Tampa this week, they are in for a tough match.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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