Prop Talk Week 20

Week 20 Plays

Isiah Pacheco Over 50.5 Rushing Yards

Isiah Pacheco has seen a dropoff in volume over the last two weeks, but that’s not entirely his fault. In Week 18, we largely need to throw those numbers out as the Chiefs were rotating in non-starters such as Ronald Jones II to ensure that their starters will be rested for the playoffs. In Week 17, Pacheco had just 9 carries which is far less than his 18.2 average in his prior six games. This was a weird game as the Chiefs ran the ball just 12 total times with their running backs and Pacheco still had 75% of the carries in that game. With the Chiefs having Super Bowl aspirations, look for them to get back towards a more balanced approach this week as he may not get the full 18 carries as he saw from Weeks 10-16, but even if he can get 15 carries this week, he should be in a great spot to top 50.5 Rushing Yards.

Jalen Hurts Under 245.5 Passing Yards

Everything about Week 18 was weird for the Eagles. In what should have been a walkover game for the Eagles as the Giants were resting their starters and the Eagles needed to win the game, was anything but that. The Eagles struggled against what looked a bit like a preseason version of the Giants with Davis Webb at quarterback as the Giants held on to win 22-16. Hurts in his first game back from his shoulder injury did not look 100% healthy as he threw for just 229 yards and no touchdowns. The Eagles have not been clear on the extent of the Hurts injury, and based on how this team looked, one has to wonder if it is going to be a lingering issue throughout the remainder of the season and if so 245.5 is too many yards.

Jerick McKinnon to Score a Touchdown (-110)

It’s crazy to see how the Chiefs have essentially just found a perfect role for Jerick McKinnon mid-season. McKinnon has become a red zone specialist as he has scored a touchdown in each of his last six games and has 9 touchdowns in those contests with 8 of them being through the air. McKinnon has taken over from a total red zone volume as he has now surpassed Travis Kelce as McKinnon has 36 red zone opportunities to Kelce’s 32.

Miles Sanders Under 68.5 Rushing Yards

The Eagles have given some interesting clues over the last two weeks that could be future forward-looking indicators as far as what their plan is against the Giants this week. Based on snap counts over the last two weeks, the Eagles appear to be wanting to go with a committee backfield as Sanders had been trending between 55-65% of snaps from Weeks 1-16 and now he has consecutive games of 40% snap share while Boston Scott has seen his snaps rise from 10-20% up to 33% in each of the last two games. It could mean absolutely nothing, but consistent volume has been an issue for Sanders all season, and now they are taking him off the field more often. Over his last ten games, Sanders has topped 13 carries just four times which he is going to need to top 13 carries in order to get 68.5 yards, so while it is possible that the Eagles go back to him like they did in Week 14 against the Giants where Sanders ran 17 times for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, it is more likely that they take this committee approach that they used in Week 18 against the Giants where Sanders had just 11 carries for 33 yards.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Brandon Aiyuk and Brock Purdy have found a chemistry over the last four weeks that should have 49ers fans excited about the possibility of finding another weapon that the 49ers can turn to alongside Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. Aiyuk has had a volatile year, but over the last four games, he has 59 yards or more in each of those games and is averaging 78 yards in those four contests. What is even more encouraging is that Aiyuk who is a deep threat receiver has at least five targets in those four games which and is averaging 15.0 yards per reception in those contests. Aiyuk will likely see a lot of Trevon Diggs who while he has a reputation of being a good corner, he is a gambler as he will often try to undercut routes for an interception which could make the Cowboys susceptible to a deep play with Aiyuk.