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Game Strategy
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Spread: Seattle -4.5
- Seattle Implied Team Total: 25.5
- Philadelphia Implied Team Total: 21
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
This is a weird Super Bowl, as despite a full season, it still seems as if we don’t really know how great both of these teams are. On the Seattle side, the targets are extremely narrow as so much of the offense runs through both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker. Meanwhile, on the Patriots side, the big question is what type of offense we will see this week. Drake Maye has not been able to re-create the exceptional play that he had during the regular season, as he’s completing just 55.8% of his pass and 6.9 yards per attempt which is 2.0 yards less than the regular season.
Admittedly, DraftKings screwed up the pricing on this slate. Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be far more expensive than the $11.6k/$17.4k pricing that he is currently at given the upside that he possesses compared to the rest of the field. What this is going to do is that it is going to cause a vast majority of players to play Smith-Njigba at captain. Smith-Njigba realistically should have been in the $13-$14k range just based on his 10 reception 100+ yard upside.
So the question is whether you could fade Smith-Njigba altogether? It’s certainly a viable strategy, as he’s topped 100-yards in just two of his last ten games, and what you get from Smith-Njigba is more of a high-floor compared to the rest of the field. However, New England is arguably the best scheme team in the NFL, and could they try to scheme a way to force Seattle to use different options than Smith-Njigba? The way that I’m personally approaching this week is either playing him in the captain, or completely fading him. It just seems like the middle ground of having him as a flex spot just seems to be a narrow margin path to victory this week.
Last year, we absolutely crushed it by fading the obvious top play in Saquon Barkley, instead focusing on Jalen Hurts and Xavier Worthy which greatly paid off. This is a similar spot this season, where Smith-Njigba is the clear number one target, but is also someone you could take the risk on to fade.
Injury Roundup
Drake Maye is dealing with a shoulder injury that had him as a limited participant over the last two weeks, but is not on the injury report and should be good to go this week. While Maye has been dealing with the shoulder injury, it has increased his rushing upside often to choose his legs in critical third downs throughout the post season.
Sam Darnold answered most questions about his oblique injury against the Rams throwing for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The big news for Seattle is that Nick Emmanwori seems good to go after a practice scare that caused him to miss Thursday’s practice with an ankle injury. The slot corner/safety is critical to a lot of what the Seahawks are able to do.
The big news for New England is that Robert Spillane will play this week after suffering an ankle injury against Denver. Spillane has emerged as the Patriots’ best run stopper.
Captain Considerations
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Drake Maye
- Ken Walker III
- Hunter Henry
- A.J Barner
- Mack Hollins
- Rhamondre Stevenson
New England Patriots Showdown Players
Quarterback
Drake Maye (Captain or Flex)
If you believe that the Patriots are going to win this game, you have to like the upside of Drake Maye. Maye has struggled throughout the playoffs, mostly due to the Patriots inability to protect him as he’s been sacked five times in each of his three playoff games. Despite lackluster passing numbers, he has excelled using his legs, as he’s run for 60+ yards in two of his three games this season, and based on both team’s excellent run defenses has a real chance to be the games top rusher this week. While Seattle’s passing defense has been great for most of the season, the big question is the schedule that they’ve faced. Outside of Matthew Stafford who threw for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns and 374 yards and 3 touchdowns, the quality of competition that the Seahawks have faced since Week 10 has been lackluster. They’ve faced Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford three times, Cam Ward, Max Brosmer, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Bryce Young, and Brock Purdy twice.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (Flex or Low-End Captain)
TreVeyon Henderson (Flex DraftKings Only)
It’s hard to trust anything related to TreVeyon Henderson this week as in their last game against Denver he saw just 6% of snaps. Running against one of the league’s best run defenses, the Patriots are going to need to heavily lean on Stevenson not necessarily as a runner, but as a receiver, which was something that emerged over the second-half of the year. No running back has topped 100-yards rushing against Seattle all season, and only the games truly elite (McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams) have been able to top 70 against this defense, so it’s unlikely that Stevenson is going to have tremendous upside, but on a single game slate, all you need is a touchdown which at 235 pounds Stevenson has nine touchdowns on the year.
For TreVeyon Henderson, the only reason that he is in consideration this week is because of the price on DraftKings. $3,800 for Henderson is a ridiculous price for a running back who prior to last week had at least 10 touches in 11 of 12 games. There’s a non-zero chance that last week’s outlier performance was driven by the weather and the Patriots just trusting their defense and the more reliable Stevenson, but they may need to look at Henderson’s upside this week if they are struggling to move the ball.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs (Flex)
Mack Hollins (Captain or Flex)
Kayshon Boutte (Low-end Flex)
New England’s wide receiver room leaves a lot to be desired. While Stefon Diggs will likely see the most interest from the field simply based on name value and his five 100+ yard performances this season, he’s simply disappeared this postseason while his price has remained high at $8,600 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel. Throughout the playoffs he’s averaging just 6.6 yards per catch, which simply is not good enough for a receiver who has just five touchdowns on the season.
Of the New England receivers, Mack Hollins is likely the most intriguing. The way to attack the Seahawks is against Tariq Woolen on the outside, as Devon Witherspoon is an elite coverage corner opposite of Woolen. It’s likely they’re going to match Woolen up with Hollins simply based on size, as the 6’4’ 220 pound Hollins is likely too big for Witherspoon, and more of a matchup that the Seahawks want given Tariq Woolen is also 6’4’’. They also likely will be more afraid of Kayshon Boutte’s explosiveness, but Hollins has had several big games this season and the lack of touchdowns is the only reason that he is priced as low as he is. If he can find the end-zone, he’s going to be a player who you’re going to need in your lineup to have a chance this week. Even if he doesn’t score, he very easily could get 40-50 yards which at his price could get him into an optimal lineup, especially if you’re trying to take a stars/scrubs approach.
Kayshon Boutte is a wildcard. He’s been the Patriots top receiver throughout the playoffs, but that’s mostly due to a 30 and 40 yard reception. He’s entirely big play dependent, but expect him to be popular this week given that big play potential and being in the mid-range where there is not a lot of upside this week. The challenge for Boutte is that he’s going to be facing arguably the league’s best cornerback in Devon Witherspoon, which should make it challenging to find an explosive play. Some may take him as their captain this week in hopes that he catches one or two long passes, but he’s likely only a play if you’re taking a Patriots stack, or if you’re going with a 5 Seahawks/one Patriot build and need him to fit in based on price. He should not be a core player on your roster just given the matchup and how highly rostered he will be.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (Captain or Flex)
If there’s a weakness on this Seattle defense it is that they’ve been unable to defend the tight end this year. Allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, since Week 10 they’ve allowed at least 9 DraftKings points to the following players, Trey McBride (30.7), Colby Parkinson (9.4), Gunnar Helm (11.1), T.J. Hockenson (11.9), Kyle Pitts (15), Terrance Ferguson (12.3), Jake Tonges (9.9), and Colby Parkinson (9.2). Hunter Henry has been noticeably unproductive the last two games, but was the second leading receiver on the Patriots this season, and led the team in receiving touchdowns. This is a spot where New England may look to the tight end often to try to get their second-year quarterback back on track and completing some early passes.
Seahawks Showdown Players
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (FLEX)
While Darnold is coming off of a season-high in passing yards, the upside for him is somewhat capped on most days. Despite having the league-leader in receiving yards, Darnold had just three 300-yard games this season including the playoffs, and just four games with 3 or more touchdowns. For a player who has minimal rushing upside, as he had less than 100 yards during the regular season this is a situation where if you’re going to play him, he’s better served as a flex play than as a captain given the price. In every game that Darnold threw for over 300 yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba also had over 100 yards, which given the minimal price difference between the two, it’s hard to see a situation in which Darnold is the winning captain over one of his receivers.
Running Backs
Ken Walker III (CPT or FLEX)
While New England’s run defense is arguably the best in the NFL, there is value in looking at Walker this week given the pricing not fully caught up to the injury of Zach Charbonnet. Walker has at least 20 touches in each of his last three games and the one bright spot is that as great as New England has been against the run, they’ve been dominant up the middle. Where Walker excels is leveraging the Seahawks tackles in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas to cut outside which will avoid Milton Williams for New England.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Captain or Flex)
Cooper Kupp(FLEX)
Rashid Shaheed (Low-End Flex)
The matchup is a difficult one this week for the Seahawks, but they are going to need to throw the ball to win this week as New England also boasts the league’s best run defense.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba needs no explanation. He’s clearly the position player who has the highest upside on this slate, so it’s likely the first decision that you’re going to have to make this week is what you’re going to do with Smith-Njigba. If you’re building multiple lineups, it likely makes sense to play him in as a captain in at least one, but you could completely fade him this week as we’ve seen players game planned out of games during the Super Bowl two-week preparation.
Once you get past Smith-Njigba the options are somewhat thin. We’ve seen Cooper Kupp have a consistent, but low-upside role as he’s topped 50 yards just once in his last ten games. In a Seattle stack, he’s definitely viable especially given that he’s the only other receiver on Seattle to have 10 or more red zone targets this season.
Rashid Shaheed is a tough one. He’s going to get looks from people given his 51 yard reception last week. However, that was his first game in his last five to have more than 10 yards, as he just has not been a big part of this offense in recent weeks. Even if he catches a long pass, it is going to need to be for a touchdown, as he’s too highly priced at $4,200 given the volume that he sees on a week-to-week basis.
Tight End
A.J. Barner (Captain or Flex)
Barner has been on a bit of a cold streak in recent weeks as he’s failed to top 20 yards in each of his last three games. However, this was a player who, prior to this latest three-game stretch, had at least 25 yards in five straight games, and what is intriguing about the 6’6 260-pound athletic tight end is his red zone opportunities. With Zach Charbonnet out, the Seahawks may need to look more heavily towards the passing game similar to what we saw against the Rams in which Darnold threw nine times in the red zone. Barner is second on the team in red zone targets, just two behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so if he is able to find the end-zone he’s going to be an excellent value at his price this week.
Under the Radar
George Holani (FLEX)
If you wanted to take a chance on Holani on the chance that Ken Walker III suffered an injury or just needed a bottom-of-the-barrel flex, you could look at him. Holani is primarily playing the third-down role for Seattle, as he had 34% of snaps last week and did catch three passes.
Kickers and Defenses
While kickers are always a challenging spot to take on Showdowns, this could be a week that you look towards them. Both teams have such thin options that can be relied upon, that if this does become a lower scoring game, we could be looking at more field goals. Jason Myers for Seattle kicked the second-most field goals this season including nine made field goals from 50+ yards. Andy Borregales has been in the middle of the road this season, but has been excellent from distance when given the opportunity making all four of his kicks from 50+ during the regular season.
Defenses are where this thing could be won. Drake Maye has been sacked five times in each of his three playoff games this year, and is now facing two former All-Pro pass rushers in DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams. Seattle had the eighth-most sacks during the regular season. On the other side of the ball, no quarterback turned the ball over more than Sam Darnold and the Patriots pass rush has stepped up in a big way this postseason as they lead all playoff teams in sacks during the playoffs with 12 sacks during their three games. Whatever team is able to rush the passer and force turnovers could be a key to victory and an excellent flex play this week.
