Dynasty Sell Now: Elijah Moore

Here are other articles in this series:

Dynasty Sell Now: Travis Etienne
Dynasty Sell Now: Michael Pittman
Dynasty Sell Now: T.J. Hockenson
Dynasty Sell Now: Jordan Love

For a six-game stretch in the 2021 season, Elijah Moore was dominant. He posted 34 receptions, 459 yards, and five touchdowns. The entire 17-game pace would be 96-1,300-14. Pretty good. Those six games represent 17% of his two-year career. Yet that stretch makes up 42% of his career receptions, 47% of his career yards, and 83% of his career touchdowns.

51% of Moore's career fantasy points came during that stretch.

Experienced fantasy managers remember the legend of Travis Fulgham. In a five-game stretch in 2020, Fulgham posted a 29-435-4 line. Feel familiar? Over the rest of a three-year career, Fulgham posted just nine additional receptions for 104 yards and no touchdowns.

This example is a tongue-in-cheek extreme. Moore carries a much higher draft pedigree and has already outproduced Fulgham's career. But it illustrates what players are capable of in small sample sizes. And how future valuations can be clouded by that sample.

Drew Bennett is another test case. Those with way-back machine memories may remember Bennett, the wide receiver from UCLA who spent most of his career with the Titans in the early 2000s. Bennett enjoyed a successful career, totaling 4,412 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns over eight years. But long-time fantasy players may remember a singular stretch of his career from 2004. In a six-game span, Bennett posted 43 receptions, 783 yards, and nine touchdowns. Over a 17-game schedule, that totals a 122-2,218-26 line—a record.

These are entirely arbitrary test cases. But it is essential to recognize the impact small sample sizes can have on overall opinions regarding players. Much of dynasty value relies on levels of subjectivity—projection of what players can achieve over their careers. Moore is a case of just how fickle that valuation can be.

Why Sell?

Moore's Keeptradecut.com page is a roller coaster. He peaked at WR15 just before the 2022 NFL draft. The Jets selected Garrett Wilson in the top 10 that year, causing a temporary value drop. His value climbed in the following months, landing in the late teens before the season.

But then the season happened. Moore was in the doghouse and fell out of the rotation during the season. His dynasty value went from WR16 on September 4th to WR50 on November 6th. Dropping 34 positional spots in just two months without a significant injury is a wild fluctuation.

But his value has steadily climbed following a trade to Cleveland, returning to WR38.

But why?

Amari Cooper is the clear number one receiver. Donovan Peoples-Jones has outproduced Moore in each of the last two seasons. David Njoku is a crucial contributor at tight end. The Browns selected Cedric Tillman early in round three of the 2023 draft. Yet Moore carries a redraft ADP of WR48, and Peoples-Jones sits at WR66.

The bull case for Moore sees him locking down the team's slot position and even working out of the backfield without an actual receiving back.

But the bear case says this will be the highest his value climbs. Those managers are presented with a pivot of a player who enjoyed a small sample of success before quickly fizzling with his first team, and the Browns will start the relationship with a short leash.