The Super Bowl is over, and eyes now shift to the 2023 season. Rookies have emerged as a critical component to capitalize on the value of fantasy football in all league formats. Early player valuations can be tricky without known landing spots. Lucky for you, we have a key.
Footballguys has released The Rookie Draft Guide version 1.0 (Get yours here free!) to prepare you for the upcoming rookie season. Meanwhile, Underdog Fantasy launched their 2023 Early Bestball drafts (sign up with code “Footballguys”). Using your free copy of The Rookie Guide, we can help guide you through player valuations in Underdog’s ADP.
Quarterback
Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson are the names to know. Hendon Hooker and Stetson Bennett are the other two sitting with ADPs in Underdog’s early 20-round draft formats, but both are likely facing long odds to see early playing time.
Neither player should be viewed as a dual-threat option, and NFL teams have opted to ease rookie quarterbacks into starting positions. Young carries the highest ADP as a 10th-round pick and QB20. Stroud is just behind, a 12th-round pick at QB 24.
Will Levis (16th round ADP, QB29) is on the fringe of interesting. He is a raw player who could bring in a rushing floor. Levis rushed for nearly 400 yards in 2021 before sliding back hard to negative yardage in 2022 (sacks are negative rush yardage in college football). That raw package and ADP above players like Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Ryan Tannehill, projected as Week 1 starters, make it an aggressive selection.
Anthony Richardson is the one who stands out. QB33 and an ADP in the 18th round, Richardson lands after players who project into immediate starting roles. Richardson rushed 654 yards in 2022 and brought that skillset into the NFL. Richardson is rookie QB3 in the guide, owning to the fantasy upside and the expectation he will be viewed as a franchise quarterback quickly. Frankly, the risk/reward is here. Richardson makes an intriguing QB3 in the deeper 20-round draft format, particularly paired with a high-end quarterback selection.
Running Back
| Player | Overall ADP | RB ADP | Rookie RB Rank | Variance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog | FBG Rookie Guide | ||||
| Bijan Robinson | 12.6 | RB4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 56.0 | RB19 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Zach Evans | 193.2 | RB60 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Tank Bigsby | 172.0 | RB54 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Tyjae Spears | 152.4 | RB47 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 103.5 | RB33 | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| Devon Achane | 158.3 | RB49 | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Eric Gray | 226.9 | RB70 | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Sean Tucker | 142.3 | RB43 | 4 | 9 | -5 |
| Kendre Miller | 216.2 | RB68 | 13 | 10 | 3 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 231.6 | RB72 | 15 | 11 | 4 |
| DeWayne McBride | 188.2 | RB59 | 9 | 12 | -3 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 238.7 | RB79 | 16 | 13 | 3 |
| Roschon Johnson | 209.4 | RB65 | 12 | 14 | -2 |
| Chris Rodriguez | - | - | NR | 15 | - |
| Chase Brown | 178.2 | RB56 | 8 | 16 | -8 |
| Travis Dye | - | - | NR | 17 | - |
| Deuce Vaughn | 206.5 | RB64 | 11 | 18 | -7 |
| Mohamed Ibrahim | 238.9 | RB84 | 17 | 19 | -2 |
| Tiyon Evans | - | - | NR | 20 | - |
| Lew Nichols | - | - | NR | 21 | - |
| Keaton Mitchell | 239.5 | RB88 | 18 | 22 | -4 |
| Tavion Thomas | - | - | NR | 23 | - |
Zach Evans (Ole Miss) - BUY
Evans is RB3 in the rookie guide and rookie RB10 in Underdog's ADP. As a former five-star recruit in the 2020 class, Evans has had a checkered past. The talent and athleticism that made him a highly coveted recruit are still present. There is minimal risk involved in his current ADP.
Eric Gray (Oklahoma) - BUY
Gray was expected to break out in 2021 after transferring to Lane Kiffin's potent Oklahoma offense. That did not happen, as Kennedy Brooks ran away with the top job. But Gray's breakout finally arrived in 2022. Gray has garnered strong draft buzz early in the process as a player who can contribute immediately in the passing game. His lagging fantasy reaction is a blowback from the devy and college fantasy community after he carried a high valuation in the summer of 2021. He is an excellent bet in one of the last rounds.
Sean Tucker (Syracuse) - FADE
Time is the concern for Tucker. Tucker's speed will play immediately. He struggles running between the tackles and needs to improve his balance. He should be expected to contribute less in the passing game. He is valued right behind Jerick McKinnon, who swung fantasy leagues in the Chiefs' offense in 2022. McKinnon is a pending free agent, but an illustration that Tucker's ADP as the rookie RB4 and an 11th-round pick requires much more risk than other rookie running backs of similar talent profiles valued rounds later than him.
Others of Note
Chase Brown and Deuce Vaughn carry higher ADPs in Underdog than in the draft guide, reflecting expectations of more minor roles within offenses, especially immediately. Meanwhile, players like Kenny McIntosh (an excellent receiver) and Chris Rodriguez (a powerful back who can claim a short-yardage role) are viewed higher in the rookie guide. They can project to slide into roles more quickly, contributing while allowing time for growth.
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