NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Vegas has been somewhat baffled by this game, thanks to the uncertainty around Trevor Lawrence's knee. After his injury last Sunday, the line opened New Orleans –3. His return to practice caused it to dip to New Orleans –1.
It should be noted, though, that the game total has dropped with the news of Lawrence practicing, from 42.5 to 39.5. In other words, Vegas expects a defensively-driven (and perhaps sloppy) evening of football. The Jaguars are considered tight favorites, but it's anyone's game, and scoring will likely come at a premium.
These two teams enter the game relatively healthy – assuming Trevor Lawrence can suit up. Wideout Zay Jones didn't practice all week and will sit tonight. Across the field, the Saints should get back runner Jamaal Williams from IR, and top receiver Chris Olave looks good to go.
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