Justin Fields has experienced a turbulent first three years in the NFL and has become one of the most polarizing quarterbacks in recent memory. As debates regarding Fields have become increasingly divided, critiques of his faults are often painted with a broad brush.
The central argument against Fields is that he holds onto the ball too long because he does not throw to open receivers, which leads to many of his sacks. The issue needed to be better defined, so I watched and charted every sack he absorbed in 2023. The objective was to understand how many of the sacks were solely Fields' fault, their exact cause, and to use that information to better assess his dynasty value going forward.
The findings were revealing.
A Common Theme
Sacks have been a common theme and a significant problem in Fields' NFL career.
In 2022, he was first in total sacks taken and first in sack rate at 14.7 percent. The league average sack rate was 6.45 percent that year. Fields led all other quarterbacks by a large margin. The last quarterback to come close to Fields' 2022 sack rate was David Carr in 2002 at 14.6 percent.
As a Fields enthusiast, I did not enjoy researching that statistic.
In 2023, Fields finished the year fourth in sacks taken with a sack rate of 10.6 percent (first among all quarterbacks who started at least 13 games). The average sack rate was 6.68 percent. Again, Fields significantly outpaced his cohorts.
For perspective, top fantasy quarterbacks generally hover no higher than a five percent sack rate, give or take. Yes, 2023 was an improvement for Fields, but historically, he was nowhere near a dynasty QB1 should be.
Assessing Blame
The Bears gave up 42 sacks in 2023, and Fields was at fault for 16. Of those 16, 14 were caused by his failure to throw to open receivers. The indictments made by Fields' antagonists are valid.
This issue is one of the major, if not the primary, hurdles in Fields' path to becoming a dynasty QB1 and a long-term quarterback for an NFL team. During these instances, two sacks resulted in turnovers, and only two were converted into first downs for a paltry conversion rate of 14 percent. It's one thing to cause setbacks because of recurring mistakes, but it's another not to be able to resolve those mistakes nearly every time they happen.
Third-Down Struggles
We now know that most of Fields' sacks occurred when he was not throwing to open receivers. But his struggles become clearer the deeper we explore the data.
Fields took 50 percent of his sacks on third downs when not throwing to open receivers and could not convert on any of them after taking the sack. He needs to make the biggest improvements on third downs. It is nearly unforgivable that a quarterback repeatedly takes sacks on third downs because he sees open receivers and does not throw to them. Another blemish on Fields' sack resume was that he averaged four self-inflicted sacks per game last season before being injured in Week 6.
A Reason for Hope
There is good news.
After returning from his injury, Fields' sack rate improved. He returned to action in Week 11, averaging 2.9 sacks per game for the rest of the season—a sack-per-game improvement. Those are significant numbers within moderate sample sizes.
If he can maintain that pace and margin of improvement in 2024, a corner will have been turned in his evolution as an NFL quarterback.
Expectations in Pittsburgh
Fields' primary positive traits are playing with physicality, athleticism, good accuracy, and arm strength. They have allowed him to finish as a QB1 in weekly average points scored in 2022 and 2023. Even with last year's late-season improvement, he still has work to do and trust to earn this offseason as he begins a new chapter with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Possibly working in his favor, the man he'll be competing with, Russell Wilson, hasn't been much better in the sack department. As noted above, Fields was first in overall sack rate in 2022 and 2023. Wilson was right behind him, finishing second (2022) and fourth (2023) in that category. These are raw sack rates without any context, but with Steelers coach Mike Tomlin suggesting the two quarterbacks are in a near-dead-even race for the starting gig going into the regular season, it's still a factor worth noting.
Fields must demonstrate he can avoid sacks by making anticipatory throws, especially on third downs.
What It Means and How to Leverage It
If Fields' dynasty managers are taking away anything from this, it should be his improved annual sack rate over the past two years and sacks per game after his injury in 2023. The risk is still there, but there has been progress.
Despite Fields' struggles, he is currently more of a hold than a sell in one-for-one trades for two reasons:
- Managers will not be able to get more than a mid to late second-round rookie pick in super-flex dynasty leagues (if you can get more, trade him away).
- If Fields finds success in Pittsburgh, then he would be far more valuable than the return that a second-round rookie pick could offer.
Additionally, given that he's competing with Wilson in Pittsburgh, the odds would favor Fields returning value in 2024. Managers looking to acquire Fields can now use this information to see how he improved while convincing Fields' dynasty managers why he isn't worth the energy to hold.
Fields is at a pivotal point in his career. There will never be a cheaper time to acquire him in dynasty leagues. Look to offer a mid to late 2024 rookie second-round pick and give them that David Carr stat outlined above. That should do the trick.
