Reading the Defense: Week 2

IDP fantasy football is gradually adopting the concept of “true positions.” Footballguy Gary Davenport wrote about the effects of true-position designation in May of last year. In short, true-position designation groups players together by function. While 4-3 and 3-4 formations remain alive and well in the NFL, nickel personnel took two-thirds of all defensive snaps leaguewide in 2023.

Players who rush the passer from the edge of the formation receive an “Edge Defender” designation (abbreviated ED or DE depending on website). The “true position” of a defender along the line of scrimmage directly across from and offensive lineman is “interior defensive line” or defensive tackle. Nickel personnel involves two edge defenders, two defensive tackles, two off-ball linebackers, and five defensive backs.

By adopting true-position designations, a fantasy football platform groups Khalil Mack with Myles Garrett. Cameron Heyward and Chris Jones are lumped together as defensive tackles. Prior to the change, many of the NFL’s premier pass-rushers were marginal starters in most IDP fantasy football formats. As a company, Footballguys has followed the lead of game platforms by ranking players by true positions.

Opposition to true-position designation remains. Critics note retention of terms like “outside linebacker” on depth charts appearing on team websites. NFL defenses are still based on 3-4 and 4-3 architecture just as they were in the 20th century. The difference is that every team substitutes a run defender with a coverage player most of the time. NFL teams’ unofficial depth charts report not 11, but 12 starters, one of which is the primary nickelback.

In the previous decade (2010-2019), opponents of true-position designation fairly noted that strong safeties were playing high percentages of their snaps in the box at linebacker depth. The argument that nickel personnel should be used to determine position designations would have classified Keanu Neal and Landon Collins as linebackers.

The inconsistency of strong safeties with true positions largely resolved itself with the trend toward two-high-safety structures. While some teams remain highly reliant on one-high coverages, their safeties are more interchangeable in this decade than the last.

The prototypical nickelback of the teens was a 5-8 cornerback deemed too short to take on ‘X’ receivers on the boundary but quick enough to face slot receivers like Wes Welker. One such player was even named Nickell, a fact appreciated by Gregg Williams, a defensive coordinator featured on Hard Knocks.

Use of man coverage has declined significantly since the playing days of Nickell Robey-Coleman. No team played it more than 40 percent of the time in 2023 according to Sports Info Solutions. Meanwhile, reliance on two high safeties puts more responsibility on the nickelback in run defense. Most teams therefore rotate cornerbacks and safeties through the slot based on situation and personnel.

Cornerbacks with an Edge

In Week 1 of the 2024 season, ten nickelbacks played more than 89 percent their defense’s snaps. Perhaps coincidentally, four of the teams with a full-time nickelback ranked top four in EPA per dropback. Of these ten players, seven are cornerbacks by trade: Kyler Gordon, Marlon Humphrey, Deommodore Lenoir, Jourdan Lewis, Kenny Moore II, Mike Sainristil, and Devon Witherspoon.

In 2023, 10 of the top 20 cornerbacks on the Footballguys leaderboard were slot defenders and the primary nickelback for their teams. Several of them did not even play full-time. They enjoyed higher rates of tackles per snap than their peers on the boundaries. Their coverage responsibilities are shallower on average.

A nickelback’s proximity to the edge makes him an opportunistic blitzer. The aforementioned top ten slot cornerbacks combined for 15.5 sacks in 2023. Week 1’s most frequent blitzers from the defensive backfield are all slot defenders. New Orleans’s Alontae Taylor demonstrated the upside for fantasy gamers.

Pass rush snaps from CBs in Week 1
Devon Witherspoon 7
Roger McCreary 6
Mike Sainristil 4
Alontae Taylor 4
Nate Hobbs 4
per PFF https://t.co/FrJ6o5Bt8j

— Master IDP (Leo) (@MasterIDP) September 12, 2024

The Colts’ Kenny Moore II collected 102 tackles from the slot in 2021. He outscored every other cornerback and all the safeties too, finishing as fantasy football’s top defensive back.

Quentin Lake, Los Angeles STAR

Three players who came into the league as safeties played full-time and occupied the primary nickelback role for their respective teams in Week 1. Quentin Lake is the incumbent STAR in Los Angeles. The former 6th-round pick is blossoming in his third year, adding snaps at safety in base defense to his duties. Lake led the Rams with 10 combined tackles in Week 1.

Lake’s role in 2024 is important to track for fantasy football. The tackle total is a positive early sign, but evidence suggests relatively little advantage in tackle collection from the slot versus the average for all safeties. Lake says he “has more opportunities to make plays on the ball” at STAR than he did at safety.

#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:

BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ?‍??
SLOT: 9.6% ?

-- Average: 9.1% --

DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?

— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024