The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Subscription, and you'll get all of our content. We're so confident you'll love it that we offer an industry-leading 30-day Money-Back Guarantee, ensuring zero risk.
RELATED: See More Like This here.
An Overview of the Buffalo Bills Defense
The Bills have played good defense over the last few years. The 2024 edition slipped in some areas, but did enough to make Buffalo contenders. The secondary gave up a high percentage of completions and ranked 22nd in yards, while the run defense was 12th in yards and 18th in yards per carry. The pass rush was mediocre as well, with Buffalo's 39 sacks tied for 18th. What saved the unit from utter mediocrity was their knack for making game-changing plays. With 16 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries, the Bills were third in turnover and 11th in points allowed.
The organization was not happy with last year's performance, so they made a concerted effort to address this side of the ball. Free agency brought Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht to boost the pass rush, along with corner Dane Jackson and safety Darrick Forrest to provide depth in the secondary. The team was not done there as the draft was all bout defense. Buffalo added defenders in each of the first six rounds, starting at the corner position with Maxwell Hairston. Adding bodies is no guarantee of improvement, but it is a clear indicator of effort and intent. I expect a better showing.
Buffalo Bills Defensive Linemen
There is only one projected new starter along the Bills' front, but there will be several new faces in the rotation. The impact of Joey Bosa can be huge if he can only stay on the field. He is entering his tenth season, spending the first nine with the Chargers. Bosa managed a full slate of games in just four of those nine, with the last coming in 2021. He's missed 23 games over the last three seasons and is already sidelined by a calf injury that will keep him out until at least the start of training camp.
If Bosa is healthy, he should be a big boost for the Bills. In the four years that he was not injured, Bosa totaled 41.5 sacks and forced 13 turnovers. In three of the four, he put up at least 51 tackles. It comes down to the old cliché: the most important ability is availability.
Greg Rousseau turned in the most productive of his four seasons as a pro in 2024. Injuries across the league helped him to a top-ten final rank, while his per-game average was 17th. Rousseau set career marks in tackles at 36, assists at 17, and turnovers with 4, while tying his 2022 mark of 8 sacks.
It's not hard to figure out why Rousseau had his best year; it was because they finally let him stay on the field enough to make an impact. Over his first three years, Rousseau never played more than 585 snaps while averaging 524. In 2024, he played 735. The dilemma for fantasy managers is that we don't know whether the increase in snaps was intentional or simply a result of injuries removing some players from the rotation. If he plays 700+ snaps again, Rousseau is a safe bet to be a solid second starter for us. If Buffalo returns to using 4-5 players in a virtually equal rotation, as they have in the past, Rousseau becomes borderline roster-worthy as little more than a matchup-based bye-week flier.
Over his first four years with the Bills, A.J. Epenesa served as a rotational backup, playing mostly on passing downs. In 2024, he had the chance to start opposite Rousseau. The result was his highest career tackle totals with the same number of sacks (6) that he recorded in each of the two previous years. The bump in snaps was not enough to make Epenesa fantasy relevant. If Bosa misses time, Epenesa would move back into the starting role, but there is no reason to think his numbers would be any better.
Between the signing of Bosa and Michael Hoecht, and the selection of Landon Jackson in round three, it looks a lot like Buffalo will go back to the mass rotation concept that we've seen in the past. If they are rotating five players, it makes no difference how good any of them are. There will not be enough snaps for anyone to have consistent value.
In Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, Buffalo has an outstanding tandem of starters on the inside. Oliver has been a mainstay in Buffalo's lineup since joining the team as a first-round pick in 2019. He is a steady contributor both on the field and on the stat sheet. As the 3-technique tackle, Oliver averaged 26-15-4, a turnover, and 3 batted passes over his first three seasons. While those are not big numbers, they were enough to make him roster-worthy as a low DT2 or solid DT3.
Many players put up their best numbers in contract years. Oliver missed that memo. He signed an extension heading into the 2023 season and then blew up the box scores for the best production of his career at 34 tackles, 17 assists, and 9.5 sacks. Unfortunately, 2024 was an ugly year for Oliver. He was shut out in two of the first four games before suffering a hamstring injury in week five. Oliver was back on the field in week seven, but was not the same player. It was not until week 15 that he started to look healthy.
It's hard to say which version of Oliver we will get this year. Will it be the guy with 35-40 combined stops and 3-4 sacks, or the one with 45-50 tackles and 6-7 sacks? It's worth picking him up in the late/last rounds as a backup with upside, just in case.
Jones will get the starting nod next to Oliver. He is a space eater and a good anchor versus the run, but is unlikely to be an IDP factor. Six Buffalo tackles saw significant action last season. Only Oliver was on the field for more than 50% of the action every week.
With free agent addition Larry Ogunjobi serving a six-game suspension to start the year, second-round pick T.J. Sanders and fourth-rounder Deone Walker should factor into the rotation right away. With a powerful upper body and quick hands, Sanders has a knack for getting off blocks and making plays in tight places. He was a standout against the run and a contributor to the pass rush over two years as a starter for South Carolina, totaling 93 combined stops and 8.5 sacks. While the ability is there, the opportunity likely will not be.
Walker is huge at 6-foot-7, 331 pounds. He will likely be groomed to take over for Jones, who will be 34 by the end of the season. Walker had a big year for Kentucky as a sophomore in 2023, totaling 55 stops, including 7.5 sacks.
- Edge Greg Rousseau – Decent second starter if the snap count is there
- Edge A.J. Epenesa – Marginal value at bets
- Edge Joey Bosa – Major injury risk with second starter upside
- Edge Michael Hoecht – Six-game suspension to open the season
- Edge Landon Jackson – Possible dynasty consideration
- Edge Javon Solomon – No impact
- DT Ed Oliver – Target as depth with high DT2 upside
- DT DaQuan Jones – Marginal impact at best
- DT Deone Walker – Rotational rookie
- DT T.J. Sanders – Injury sleeper/dynasty prospect
- DT Larry Ogunjobi – marginal impact after serving a suspension
Buffalo Bills Linebacker
The only unknown with Buffalo's linebackers is how many games they will get in before injuries become an issue. Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano are the undisputed starters, with Bernard in the middle and Milano on the weak side. Both are proven commodities on the field and productive fantasy targets, at least when they are healthy. That has been the problem, especially with Milano, who has been available for nine games over the last two seasons.
The last time he played a full slate of games was 2022. That season, Milano was 71-27-1.5 with five takeaways and an impressive (for a linebacker) 11 passes defended. Those numbers added up to make him top 25 at the position and a solid second starter. Milano is capable of similar production, but don't be the manager who drafts him in the LB2 range. He missed most of 2023 with a leg injury, followed by a biceps tear that ended his 2024. In between and around those injuries, Milano dealt with groin and hamstring problems. Soon to be 31 years old, those injuries could begin to take a toll. The good news is that no one is looking over his shoulder, yet. If he is healthy, Milano is safe in the Buffalo lineup.
Terrel Bernard is a much lesser risk, but there are still concerns. He has battled injuries dating back to a fractured foot that required surgery in 2022, a torn meniscus that required a knee scope, an ankle, and two strained pectorals. While the foot in 22 was by far the most serious, all of these issues caused Bernard to miss at least one game.
The one season that Bernard did not miss time was 2023. Even then, he was questionable right up to week one and was carted off with an ankle injury in the postseason. You would never have known it from his play or production, though. Bernard opened as the starting middle linebacker, playing every snap and setting the pace with 11 total tackles in week one. When the numbers were all in, he was 84-59-6.5 with 6 turnovers, 5 passes defended, and a rank of sixth at the position. Bernard's week-to-week consistency was as impressive as his overall numbers. He totaled nine or more points in fourteen games, with at least twelve and a half points in ten.
Bernard played in 13 games last year, going 55-49-1 with three turnovers, despite the nagging injuries. He's a tough cookie who not only gutted it out to play through injuries but managed to be productive in those games. The injury risk is enough to keep him behind the top-tier guys. Target Bernard in the early to mid LB2 range. If he makes it through a full season, he could be a bargain there.
With the injury to Milano in 2023, the Bills learned that their linebacker depth was suspect. They gave then-rookie Dorian Williams a look. When he underperformed, they switched to Tyrel Dodson for a while. The team would eventually lure A.J. Klein off the couch to start in the playoffs. Williams was much better when he got the call last year, and was even fantasy-relevant for much of the season, reaching double-digit points in eight of eleven games before heading back to the bench. The fact that no significant additions were made at the position could be a sign that the coaching staff is gaining confidence in the third-year player.
When I said "no significant additions", I meant not players with long-term starting potential. Buffalo picked up Shaq Thompson at a bargain price in early June. Entering his eleventh season and coming off an Achilles' injury, I'm not sure he is a starter at this point. He certainly has the experience and the versatility to fill in at either position. That said, I'm not sure there is a lot left in the tank. Hopefully, the Bills will not need to test that theory.
- WLB Matt Milano – Decent LB3 but a major injury risk
- MLB Terrel Bernard – Target as a priority LB2 with mid LB1 potential
- SLB Dorian Williams – Injury sleeper
- WLB Shaq Thompson – Injury sleeper
- MLB Baylon Spector – No impact
Buffalo Bills Defensive Backs
There were changes in the Bills' secondary before last season, and there are more coming in 2025. The most obvious is at corner where Buffalo drafted Maxwell Hairston in round one. Hairston is on the small side at 183 pounds and does not get excited about run support, but he is scheme versatile with the ability to play press, zone, or off-man coverage with equal success. Most importantly for the Bills, he is a ballhawk with long arms and excellent ball production. Hairston picked off six passes and returned three for scores over his final 20 games at Kentucky. He may be too light in the tackle columns to provide much fantasy value beyond possibly year one, but Hairston should be in the Bills' lineup by the time they break camp.
Christian Benford should get the call at the other outside corner spot. The 2022 sixth-round pick impressed as a rookie and took over the starting job in year two. Unlike most situations with young corners, his box score production has grown over the last two seasons. In 2024, Benford stepped up with 50-14-1, 5 turnovers, and 10 passes defended to finish among the top 20 at corner. Unlike his young counterpart, Benford has good size for a corner and seems to relish contact. Between the rookie and Taron Johnson, there will be heavy competition in Buffalo's secondary. We'll have to see if Benford is up to the task.
Speaking of Taron Johnson, there are not many corners that can be counted on by IDP managers year after year. Johnson is one of them. He works from the slot, where, in the Bills' scheme, he draws run support duties similar to those of a strong safety a fair portion of the time. At a glance, his totals of 42 tackles and 23 assists are paltry. At least until you consider that he missed the first five games. Johnson added five splash plays to be one of two corners averaging double-digit points. This is a corner that recorded at least 67 solo stops in three of the four seasons leading up to 2024. He may not be number one at the position in 2025, but he is possibly the safest bet in the game to land in the top 10.
Buffalo signed Dane Jackson to go with Cam Lewis as depth at the corner positions. Both of these guys are solid, yet unspectacular players who can fill in without a major drop-off. All in all, the Bills are both talented and deep at corner.
Taylor Rapp's job at free safety is not in jeopardy. He has become a dependable center fielder and cleanup man. Rapp will contribute a few big plays, but his last line responsibilities keep him deep and out of the action too often for consistent box score production.
Possibly the most heated competition on the Bills' defense will come at strong safety, where Damar Hamlin faces a challenge from Cole Bishop. Hamlin did a solid job in the role last year, posting 62-27-0 with three turnovers despite missing three games. Hamlin is all hustle and heart, but is not the most physically gifted.
It is Bishop who has the highest ceiling of the safeties. While he can play either spot, his skill set leans toward that of a physical box safety. Bishop was a three-year starter at Utah and played a lot of football in college. His opportunity was limited as a rookie when he served as the third safety. In the three games he started late in the year, Bishop totaled 15 tackles and three assists. Whoever comes away as the starter will have fantasy value. If it happens to be Bishop, the ceiling is a little higher.
- FS Taylor Rapp – Marginal IDP value
- SS Cole Bishop – Breakout candidate
- SS Damar Hamlin – Decent third starter or quality depth if he wins the job
- FS Jordan Hancock – No impact expected
- CB Maxwell Hairston – Rookie corner rule applies
- CB Christian Benford – Consider him depth with CB2 upside
- CB Taron Johnson – Most dependable fantasy corner in the game
- CB Cam Lewis – No impact
- CB Dane Jackson – No impact
That's a wrap for the Bills. On to Miami.
Enjoy this article? Find more from John here.
_(1000_x_500_px)_png)