Josh Gordon recently added attorney Maurice Suh to his suspension appeal which is scheduled with the league this Friday, August 1st. Suh has some name recognition, not for being a big defensive lineman in Detroit, but for helping Richard Sherman during his appeal process.
One of the best things about Footballguys is the unbelievable depth of talent on the staff. Quite often, when somethng big happens in the NFL, a lively discussion starts, and Gordon's recent actions was one of the more recent hot topics. The Footballguys staff roundtable gives you insight on both the NFL and also a behind-the-scenes look at Footballguys in a very entertaining and informative format. We hope you enjoy.
One of our newest staff members, Ari Ingel, who has an extensive legal background, kicks off this roundtable with the staff:
The Josh Gordon Discussion
Ari Ingel: As I'm sure many of you heard today, Josh Gordon hired an additional attorney, Maurice Suh, who previously helped Richard Sherman avoid suspension. The problem we have trying to determine the outcome of Gordon's hearing is that we don't know all the circumstances involving his recent failed test and we also don't know exactly how many tests he really has failed. Greg Little tweeted out months ago that the failure was due to a skipped test. Per the leagues drug policy, a missed test is the same as a failed test. But we have no clue if the league followed proper guidelines in alerting Gordon about the test or as we saw in Sherman's case, maybe it was a cup with a broken seal. The attorneys may even be able to argue that Gordon is not already in Stage 3 due to some murky rules governing what happens to a player when they are moved into Stage 2 upon entering the league, which was most likely the case with Gordon. But without all the facts we simply don't know. The problem is that the commissioner has relatively free reign to hand down punishment as he pleases. I agree that from the outside, Gordon looks like he is done for the year, but there are certainly many small factors that can help him argue a successful case otherwise. I also doubt he would have hired Suh if there weren't some nuances at play here.
Jeff Haseley: First off, I love the new legal addition we have on staff. Thanks, Ari. Good info here. I wonder what the outcry will be if Gordon only misses eight games? Or anything other than a full season. The Browns seem to think he won't be available. This could be a huge story if the verdict is a relative slap on the wrist due to technicalities.
Cian Fahey: Also, there's a rumour going around that Chris Mortensen said Gordon may get off on a technicality. I haven't seen a single credible source mention this. Just some guy on twitter who said he heard it. If anyone has one, it'd be nice to know what is true/untrue.
Dan Hindery: I saw that too, Cian. I think it must have been something Mortensen said on NFL Live. I’ve seen a couple articles that link back to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/Druboutin_Don/status/492763979643498496
Not sure if that tweet is accurate though. Always tough to rely on something (even if it is sincere) that is second hand.
Cian Fahey: That's the only source I've seen. If Mortensen had said it, I suspect every mainstream media member would have jumped on it.
Scott Bischoff: Hey guys, this brings up an interesting fantasy question, maybe more dynasty then redraft. What would you guys give up for Gordon?
Ari Ingel: If he wins ... the length of suspension depends on whether it was due to a procedural issue (i.e.: contaminated sample) or a policy issue (i.e.: he was really in Stage 2).
If procedural it could be no suspension, as in the Sherman case, as he would be deemed to be innocent of the infraction. If a policy matter, then maybe a six-game ban.
That he's hiring an additional attorney now means he is making some sort of argument. We just don't know enough facts to really have a clue how credible those arguments may be.
His DUI and speeding ticket shouldn't technically make a difference here, but if he escapes this, he certainly could get punished under the conduct policy for those.
Dan Hindery: Scott, I think I would rank him around 100 in my overall dynasty rankings. I wouldn’t give up a future first for him but would probably do a future second. Depends upon roster makeup, starting requirements, etc. He makes sense if you have a loaded team where you can take the risk by moving a low upside-high floor type guy for him.
I am currently doing a $200 dynasty startup, and Gordon went 4.05 (14 teamer, so #47 overall) just this morning. I thought that was WAY too early. Especially since this is a deep league with 1/2/3/1 and 3 flexes, so stars are a bit less important and safe production is at a premium.
Scott Bischoff: I've seen him go straight up for Kendall Wright, and I've seen him go for Jordan Cameron. I suppose the entire thing rests on how much risk you are willing to take on.
Thinking about the pairing of Johnny Manziel and Josh Gordon. When doing all of our charting of quarterbacks last year, Manziel was far and away the best deep ball thrower, along the lines of Robert Griffin's deep ball accuracy, which was ridiculous. Crazy as it sounds, they need each other.
Joe Bryant: Thanks, Ari. Loving having you on board for stuff like this.
I personally have had a weird gut feel that the punishment is going to be less than 16 games I see so many assuming.
Here are the questions I'd have.
- Do you think Suh really just now has come on board or we're just not hearing it about it? If it really is he's just now coming on board, isn't this ridiculously late in the game? Does that mean much?
- How tied are Goodell's hands on this? Because I'm thinking if he has much leeway, we'll see lighter punishment. Especially given the uproar over Ray Rice's two games. All we've been hearing is "knock your girlfriend out cold, get two games. Smoke a joint, get suspended for a year". Those folks conveniently leave out the fact Gordon's been in trouble pretty much forever. But details don't really play in the public court. It'll turn into a "look at the crimes and look at the punishment for these two guys". And I think Goodell is smarting over the beating he's taking over Rice.
- How quickly should we have a result after the hearing?
Ari Ingel: Adam Schefter stated on ESPN that Gordon brought Suh on board earlier this month in preparation for the appeal. So it wasn’t just this week. This isn’t some complex case, so a top attorney doesn’t need that much time to digest what is going on here.
I’m assuming Gordon and his team probably him felt they needed additional muscle, even though Heather McPhee, the NFLPA attorney is well known and highly regarded. Once again, for me, the fact that he brought Suh onboard means they are putting together a legitimate argument. If he had simply failed another test, there really is no wiggle room. Something more is going on here.
As I mentioned before, if there was a procedural mistake it could be no suspension, as in the Sherman case. If a policy matter (i.e.: he was really in Stage 2), then it would be a six-game ban. The rules don’t talk of a eight-game ban as some people have mentioned. Von Miller got eight games because he also ran afoul of the conduct policy by trying to subvert the testing process. That eight games was an arbitrary sentence by the commissioner.
But after the appeal is heard by the commissioner, per league rules, he has to release a written decision "within a reasonable period of time.” I would read reasonable to mean no more than five to ten days.
And the commissioner does have a lot of leeway. As we saw last year with Gordon, he reduced his suspension from four games to two. If I was on team Gordon I would argue that banishment is not the best way to go, given the Ray Rice ruling and given the fact that Justin Blackmon was just arrested again. Being away from football is usually what gets these guys into trouble. The NFL may look better if they started to actually try and help them instead of banishing them. That said, it is a slippery slope … they just suspended LaVon Brazill for a year, and the league doesn’t want to look like they are going light on star players either.
The DUI and the speeding ticket technically shouldn’t play any role here as those come under the conduct policy. But it certainly doesn’t help when you are trying to beg for mercy.
Joe Bryant: Great. Thanks, Ari. I'm super interested.
Jason Wood: I realize for redraft leagues this is a hugely important potential loophole. However, I think anyone that bets on Gordon in dynasty leagues has very little life experience. Gordon has shown such a wanton disregard for making the right choices in his life that assuming he won't make another mistake(s) is tantamount to believing the Tooth Fairy is going to beat out Johnny Manziel for the Browns starting quarterback job.
Maurile Tremblay: If the Tooth Fairy is a Brian Hoyer alias, I think that's about right.
Ari Ingel: If he is cleared … in dynasty it may be good to try to trade him ASAP for a Keenan Allen or Alshon Jeffrey. Gordon will be in Stage 3 for the rest of his career, and any slip up will have him facing a one-year suspension again.
Then again Cris Carter turned things around and became one of the greatest receivers ever in the NFL.
The news of Suh coming on gives me a bit of new hope. I can’t imagine the commish wants to suspend one of the best young players in the league.
Scott Bischoff: I agree completely about moving him in dynasty formats. If it is eight games, I think it will excite people and an advantage can be had because of that excitement, but Ari is right, one slip up for the rest of his NFL life.
Adam Harstad: I agree with Jason that the real concern with Gordon in dynasty is not whether he plays this year, and how much; the concern is how long he can remain on the right side of the league going forward. He failed two tests at Baylor, got kicked out, failed a test at Utah, got kicked out, failed a test in Cleveland, got suspended, and then did whatever triggered this controversy. At a minimum, we know he's still hanging out with guys who not only smoke weed, but carry it on them while kicking it with him.
In the past, for want of some sort of framework that I could use to help gauge risk, I have called him an addict. A lot of people disagree with the appropriateness of that comparison, but I've found it useful, and his behavior to this point looks an awful lot like what we should expect out of someone with an addiction problem. Now, when Gordon's value was sky high, I said that probably wasn't appropriate given the bleak picture that addiction statistics paint about the odds of getting clean without a relapse. At the same time, now his value is in the toilet, and I'm not sure that's appropriate, either. Maybe 50-66% of addicts relapse within a year, depending on the statistics you use. Conversely, though, that means 33-50% DON'T relapse. With Gordon's talent and youth, I will happily bet on those odds. A lot of people are under the impression that Gordon will never play another snap of pro football. I will be very surprised if that winds up being the case.
Alessandro Miglio: This is all great stuff. While it is certainly titillating to think Gordon's suspension might be lifted or shortened due to a technicality, I don't have high hopes.
I do think, however, that the league would be confident headed into an appeal hearing that Gordon may yet win, however. If Gordon really does have something up his sleeve, it's feasible the league will be caught with its pants down a la MLB with Ryan Braun (the first time).
As for value going forward... I think he immediately skyrockets into the second or third round of redraft leagues if the suspension is lifted. It would be risky, to be sure—when is the next suspension coming?—but how do you pass on a guy who led the league in fantasy scoring in just 14 games last season? I'm also inclined to give him a big bump in dynasty leagues, but not nearly as much—he would still be, after all, one strike away from a lengthy suspension, and he hasn't given much indication that he has repented from his suspension-inducing ways. I would probably try to trade him away for a hefty price if I had him, and buying him might prove too costly.
Jeff Pasquino: And with that, those are all of the two cents from several of the staff here. As Joe loves to say, you'll know when we know. The staff takes pride in discussing issues like these so that we all get a little smarter, and then we all can share it with you.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
