
Something about typical fantasy rankings has been bothering me lately. By listing all relevant players in order of draft desirability, we still don't really have anything actionable until we add a denominator of ADP. If I tell you a player is my #5 running back, that doesn't tell you whether I would recommend drafting him or not. When you add the dimension of ADP, it becomes clear right away who my rankings recommend targeting and who my rankings recommend avoiding. This leads to an experiment idea of rethinking rankings. Instead of ranking players by draft desirability (or projected end of year finish), why not rank players by desirability of drafting them at ADP? This table will show you the rough ADP of a player, and where I would consider drafting the player. This ranking should help when prioritizing targets pre-draft and understanding the next best outcomes when targeted players go off the board ahead of you. Any and all feedback welcome!
Rank | Player | Team | Projected ADP | Worth Drafting in? |
1 | Arian Foster | HOU | 7th-10th | 5th |
2 | Frank Gore | IND | 3rd | 2nd |
3 | Andre Ellington | ARI | 4th | 3rd |
4 | Lance Dunbar | DAL | 15th or later | 11th-12th |
5 | Justin Forsett | BAL | late 2nd | 2nd |
6 | Le'Veon Bell | PIT | Early 1st | #1 |
7 | Ameer Abdullah | DET | 5th/6th | 4th |
8 | Danny Woodhead | SD | 10th-12th | 7th-8th |
9 | Chris Ivory | NYJ | 7th/8th | 6th/7th |
10 | Darren Sproles | PHI | 12th | 10th |
11 | Adrian Peterson | MIN | Early 1st | Early 1st |
12 | Jamaal Charles | KC | Early 1st | Early 1st |
13 | C.J. Anderson | DEN | Late 1st | Mid 1st |
14 | Marshawn Lynch | SEA | Mid 1st | Mid 1st |
15 | Eddie Lacy | GB | Mid 1st | Mid 1st |
16 | Lamar Miller | MIA | 3rd | Early 3rd |
17 | Duke Johnson | CLE | 8th | 6th/7th |
18 | C.J. Spiller | NO | 4th but will drop | 5th/6th |
19 | Matt Forte | CHI | Late 1st | Early 2nd |
20 | DeAngelo Williams | PIT | 13th-15th | 12th |
21 | Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 4th | 4th |
22 | Mark Ingram | NO | 3rd/4th | 3rd/4th |
23 | Rashad Jennings | NYG | 6th | 6th |
24 | LeGarrette Blount | NE | 6th | 6th |
25 | Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 6th/7th | 6th/7th |
26 | Jonas Gray | NE | 15th or later | 13th-15th |
27 | Chris Polk | HOU | 15th or later | 13th-15th |
28 | Khiry Robinson | NO | 15th or later | 13th-15th |
29 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | 8th/9th | 8th/9th |
30 | David Cobb | TEN | 10th-11th | 10th-11th |
31 | Ryan Mathews | PHI | 8th/9th | 10th |
32 | Doug Martin | TB | 7th | 7th/8th |
33 | TJ Yeldon | NO | 5th | 6th |
34 | Knile Davis | KC | 11th | 12th |
35 | Todd Gurley | STL | 4th | 5th |
36 | Joseph Randle | DAL | 4th | 5th |
37 | Reggie Bush | SF | 10th-11th | 12th |
38 | Melvin Gordon | SD | 3rd | 4th |
39 | Jeremy Hill | CIN | 2nd | 3rd |
40 | Demarco Murray | PHI | 2nd | 3rd |
41 | Alfred Morris | WAS | 3rd/4th | 5th |
42 | Joique Bell | DET | 6th | 7th/8th |
43 | Montee Ball | DEN | 13th-15th | 15th or later |
44 | Alfred Blue | HOU | 9th/10th | 13th-15th |
45 | Charles Sims | TB | 10th | 13th-15th |
46 | Tre Mason | STL | 7th/8th | 12th |
47 | Shane Vereen | NYG | 6th/7th | 10th |
48 | Giovani Bernard | CIN | 5th/6th | 7th/8th |
49 | Bishop Sankey | TEN | 10th-11th | 15th or later |
50 | Darren McFadden | DAL | 10th-11th | 15th or later |
51 | David Johnson | ARI | 10th | 15th or later |
52 | Tevin Coleman | ATL | 6th | 8th/9th |
53 | Latavius Murray | OAK | 4th | 6th-7th |
54 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | 2nd | Late 3rd |
55 | Carlos Hyde | SF | 3rd/4th | 6th |