Player Spotlight: Colin Kaepernick

In his first full season as a starter, Colin Kaepernick led his team to their second straight NFC Championship Game. One thing is certain, if fantasy leagues gave points for quarterback "wins" or playoff performances, Kaepernick would be a much more valuable fantasy asset. In six playoff games the 4th year quarterback has run for 507 yards and 4 touchdowns and averaged nearly 30 fantasy points per game. He has a 17-6 record as a starter in the regular season and is 4-2 in the playoffs. The 49ers organization and their fans have every reason to defend him as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league from their perspective. He is a perfect fit for his head coach Jim Harbaugh. Of course, Harbaugh (and his system) are part of the problem for the idea of Kaepernick as a consistent QB1.

In 2013 Kaepernick attempted less passes than Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan completed. Since he only completed 58% of his passes that left Kaepernick with a paltry 243 completions last year. Part of that can be attributed to his receiving corps, which should be better in 2014. Michael Crabtree should be 100% heading into camp and the team added Steve Johnson for a conditional 4th round pick. With 33 year-old Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis still in the mix, Kaepernick should have his best complement of weapons since he took over midway through 2012. That being said I don't think anyone is going to be listing Crabtree-Boldin-Johnson as one of the top receiving corps in the league...and the team continues to add talented young running backs.

While Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman has hinted at a new offensive philosophy it's difficult to see a team that has made back-to-back NFC Championship Games with a run-heavy approach suddenly airing the ball out. This offense wasn't just below average through the air; they were the third worst unit in the league at less than 190 yards a game. Even so, Kaepernick finished as QB11 in standard scoring leagues. How? Because of his legs.

Through his first two years as a starter, more than 28% of Kaepernick's fantasy production has come on the ground. This is becoming more common, and being a threat on the ground certainly adds to a quarterback's fantasy value. But when a quarterback gets more than a quarter of his production on the ground and still struggles to get into the top ten that isn't necessarily a good thing. Often a young quarterback that relies on his legs early in his career sees a significant drop in that production later. Here's a look at the ten quarterbacks from 1980-2012 that scored at least 450 fantasy points in their first 2 seasons, sorted by the percentage of those points that came on the ground:

It's pretty clear that the bottom half of that list is much more appealing than the top half. Does that mean Kaepernick is doomed to a disappointing future? Of course not, but it does look like fantasy points that come through the air are more predictive than those that come on the ground for young quarterbacks. Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III could all fall into the same argument, but only Griffin has relied on the ground game as much as Kaepernick.  The 49ers should continue to try to reign in their young quarterback to preserve his future, and that will mean that he needs to do more through the air.

POSITIVES

• Kaepernick is a young quarterback that is still improving. We have good reason to expect growth from him in his third year as a starter.
• He will have more competent targets to throw to than he's ever had in his career, including a couple of veterans that should make his job easier.
• Kaepernick produces on the ground even when he isn't successful through the air, raising both his floor and his ceiling.

NEGATIVES

• Despite the talk of a more pass-happy offense, the 49ers figure to once again finish in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts.
• The NFC West has turned into a division full of defensive teams and his schedule will not be conducive to huge games.
• Kaepernick's limited success through the air so far in his career may not bode well for his fantasy value going forward.

Colin Kaepernick Projections

FINAL THOUGHTS

Kaeprnick should continue to be a darling in San Francisco and a winner on the field. As long as he stays healthy he'll be a borderline QB1, more likely falling into the high-end QB2 range. He reaches his upside if Anquan Boldin can fight off Father Time, Greg Roman opens up the offense, and Kaepernick proves he can manage more than 26 attempts a game on a regular basis. On the other hand, Kaepernick's propensity to tuck the ball and run puts him at an increased risk for injury and their are plenty of defenders in the NFC West willing to land that crushing blow. If Kaepernick does stop running as much and fails to improve his passing stats he could fall into the QB18-20 range. He's currently being drafted as QB11 which is a little high for my liking but not too far off. If you draft him as your QB1 be prepared to take another quarterback soon.

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Lindasy Jones at USA Today writes:

To Roman, all of these new pieces mean the offense could wind up being drastically different. He was coy this week about his plans, but it seems he'll employ more three- and perhaps even four-wide receiver sets to give Kaepernick extra options.

"I think it gives us an opportunity as an offense to do a lot more," Kaepernick, who's entering his second season as the opening day starter, said.

Read more from Jones here.

Eric Branch at sfgate.com writes:

Another possible reason for moving away from ground-and-pound: Colin Kaepernick, who has made 23 regular-season starts, is entering his second full season as a starter and is better equipped to utilize his pass-catching options.

"That's definitely a factor," Roman said. "It really is his second full year starting. ... So he's seeing things now that he didn't see before."

Read more from Branch here.