Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll use some data to break down Andre Holmes massive 28-point outburst.
The further we go into the regular season, the harder it is to find potential strong starters on the waiver wire. The overwhelming majority of the players still hanging around are just bye week fill-ins, and matchup plays. Yet, more than likely there was one of the former types picked up off your league’s waiver wire this week. That would be Raiders’ wide receiver, Andre Holmes.
Holmes drew national attention after a stellar game for Oakland during last season’s Thanksgiving battle with Dallas. He made several difficult catches, and flashed serious athletic ability. The Hillsdale product bounced around several practice squads to start his career, but that game began his emergence in a permanent home with the Raiders. Those memories, and lack of options in the Oakland passing game made Holmes a deep sleeper on the most cunning owners’ radars. He was a popular final round pick among the sharpest toothed sharks in drafts held before the preseason.
The hope evaporated after a rough exhibition series and a two snap Week 1 game. Holmes found himself on the cutting room floor of most fantasy rosters. Yet, all of a sudden here in the build up to Week 7, he is back in our good graces. Five catches for 74 yards and a touchdown against Miami in Week 5 reminded us of his existence. Two scores and 121 yards last week helped him burst back on to the fantasy scene. While he was a top priority for many owners—the ones that were paying attention—on the waiver wire this week; we have to wonder what he’ll look like going forward. Reception Perception can tell use exactly how well he is playing to see.
Alignment Data and Targets
Andre Holmes’ size, 6’4 and 210 pounds, profiles as a strong X-receiver. His strong athletic ability furthers that idea. More often than not, these receivers play on the left side of the formation, and with a foot on the line of scrimmage. While Holmes took the majority of his 49 snaps in those spots, it was not an exclusive assignment.
Holmes was on the outside right side of the field for 26.5% of the snap, and even 16.3% in the slot. On 44.9% of his plays, he started out behind the line of scrimmage.
This data might tell us that the Raiders are willing to try Holmes on a little bit of everything. His body type and physical profile fits that of a number one NFL outside receiver. The majority of his alignment data goes along. However, Holmes was not limited to just that role by the Raiders new coaching staff last week. Perhaps this means they want to experiment with him. Either to scheme him touches because they have faith, or just to see if anything sticks full time.
Andre Holmes received 12 targets in Week 5. His Week 6 target data does show that the Raiders are beginning to mix him in more:
There is good news and bad news surrounding the target data. Holmes was targeted on 25.8% of his routes against the Chargers. Those are numbers consistent with many of the other well performing wide receivers we’ve looked at this year. The trouble is that he did not always come through for the team. Holmes’ catches on 8.1% of his routes is a bit troubling, as was him only catching 50% of his targets. The 25% drop rate is strikingly high (one coming on a screen pass).
If you are buying into Holmes as a strong fantasy asset going forward, these numbers have to worry you a bit. Will there be weeks his mistakes are too overwhelming? I don’t worry too much about dropped passes, especially when the player is a big play waiting to happen. Yet, coaches get frustrated and will faze a player out of the game. Which does not help your fantasy team.
Route Analysis
It’s important to look back on the Reception Perception series here at Football Guys. We’ve seen that Brian Quick, Terrance Williams and Torrey Smith all carried high percentage figures on nine routes. Andre Holmes continues that trend. Even so, Holmes 35.5% figure for nine routes run is strikingly high. The Raiders know his size, speed and ability to track the ball in the air is a great mixture for success on deep routes. That’s a good sign that the new coaches will give him chances for big plays. But do not discount the rest of the chart, which his fairly balanced. Holmes ran every pattern, except the flat route, at least one time. He got to try a little bit of everything, but how did he do on the routes?
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Other than a zero-percent figure on his one “other” route, Holmes posted a better then 50% SRVC figure on all types of routes. He was quite strong on comeback and curl routes, some of the route he ran frequently in Week 6. The most important thing to note is his 63.6% SRVC figure on nine-routes. We know Holmes ran verticals on 35.5% of his eligible routes. Usually we do not see such a high SRVC on nine routes, especially when a receiver goes on those patterns so often. For comparison’s sake, Terrance Williams ran nine-routes on 26.6% of the time in Week 4, and only had a 37.5% SRVC. That makes Holmes’ numbers look quite good.
He was also very productive on nine routes, hauling in 18.7 PPR fantasy point on such patterns. Holmes got open (against two good corners) and made due on the opportunities. That, and the general positivity gleaned from his SRVC metrics, makes the drops and worrisome target data easier to swallow. In general, Holmes did a good job beating the ton of man coverage San Diego corners threw at him:
If he can beat Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers with regularity, you feel good about him in better matchups.
Going Forward
Andre Holmes has talent, opportunity and is coming of two productive weeks in a row. That alone means he belongs on all fantasy rosters. Despite and explosive Week 6 performance in a good matchup, there is enough evidence to give pause to him now being an every week starter. His target data makes you think that he might struggle to maintain consistency, as he didn’t convert on a high percentage of routes. The coaches may grow weary of his drops and mistakes, even if that is not wise.
Yet, Holmes will probably be the last wide receiver you can get off the waiver wire that can start for you in most weeks. His SRVC figures were favorable, and that helps the worries about consistency. Holmes was getting open on most of his chances, but only targeted on the big play chances. More weeks like last could force the team to feed him on higher percentage chances.
For now, all the Andre Holmes Week 6 Reception Perception data screams a high-upside WR3 or FLEX play. He’s the best play on a sketchy Oakland offense, based on the tantalizing upside alone. His floor may rise as the season goes on. Considering you just got him off the waiver wire, that is pretty good.