Defensive Team by Committee

Chase Stuart's Defensive Team by Committee Chase Stuart Published 08/08/2014

For twelve straight years, Footballguys has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, making it difficult to predict which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will excel. And, at least in theory, the teams available at the ends of your drafts should provide less rewards. So how do you get great production out of the position while saving your most important draft picks?

We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. By starting your defense based on matchups, your D/ST will generally face a weak offense, meaning your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

When picking a D/ST committee, you should look for four factors:

  •     A very easy combined schedule
  •     Two teams with late average draft positions (ADPs)
  •     Elite pass rushers and defensive backs with good hands
  •     Reason to expect improvement in 2013

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - 2 x (Interceptions thrown + Fumbles Lost).  While most leagues award significant points for sacks, we don't project offensive sacks allowed data. But don’t worry: we’ll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC.  Here is how Footballguys projects the offenses:

RkTmProj Off FP
1 DEN 314.9
2 NO 293.1
3 GB 288.3
4 PHI 281.2
5 NE 279.6
6 SEA 270.3
7 SF 265.1
8 DET 263.8
9 IND 262.3
10 WAS 256.9
11 DAL 256.1
12 SD 253.4
13 CHI 250.7
14 ATL 250.1
15 KC 248.5
16 STL 236.9
17 CAR 236.6
18 PIT 236.3
19 BAL 234.3
20 CIN 234.3
21 BUF 228.7
22 TB 228.6
23 TEN 224.9
24 HOU 222.1
25 NYJ 221.7
26 OAK 220.9
27 MIN 220.2
28 MIA 220.1
29 NYG 216.8
30 ARI 215.5
31 CLE 204.1
32 JAX 185.6

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned each team the offensive rating of their opponent in each week. I also added three points to the offense's rating when they are at home and took away three points when the offense is on the road.  Bye weeks are valued at 500 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team’s schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in Week 17.

2014 Defensive Team by Committee: Tennessee and Indianapolis

Right now, neither the Titans nor the Colts are being drafted in most fantasy leagues; that means it's easy for you to snatch them up with your final two picks.  The fact that both units are going undrafted may give you pause: after all, neither team, on paper, has a talented defense.  But let me offer some counterpoints.

  • Four games against the Jaguars
  • Two games against the Browns
  • Two games against the Texans
  • Two games against teams that play in East Rutherford, New Jersey
  • One game against the Titans

That's 11 games against bottom-10 offenses.  Games against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Cincinnati are hardly nightmare matchups, which leaves a home game against Dallas the scariest matchup on the schedule.  Unfortunately, the two hardest games this schedule faces are in weeks 1 and 2; after that, it's a fantastic slate of opponents for this committee.

  • Week 1:  Titans @ Chiefs (251.5)
  • Week 2:  Titans vs. Cowboys (253.1)
  • Week 3:  Colts @ Jaguars (188.6)
  • Week 4:  Colts vs. Titans (221.9)
  • Week 5:  Titans vs. Browns (201.1)
  • Week 6:  Titans vs. Jaguars (182.6)
  • Week 7:  Colts vs. Bengals (231.3)
  • Week 8:  Titans vs. Texans (219.1)
  • Week 9:  Colts @ Giants (219.8)
  • Week 10: Titans @ Ravens (237.3)
  • Week 11: Titans vs. Steelers (233.3)
  • Week 12: Colts vs. Jaguars (182.6)
  • Week 13: Titans @ Texans (225.1)
  • Week 14: Colts @ Browns (207.1)
  • Week 15: Titans vs. Jets (218.7)
  • Week 16: Titans @ Jaguars (188.6)

Tennessee Titans Defense

DL: Ropati Pitoitua, Sammie Lee Hill, Jurrell Casey
LB: Derrick Morgan, Shaun Phillips, Kamerion Wimbley, Wesley Woodyard, Zach Brown, Akeem Ayers
DB: Jason McCourty, Coty Sensabaugh, Bernard Pollard, Michael Griffin

The big change in Tennessee is the arrival of defensive coordinator Ray Horton and the switch to the 3-4 defense.  Horton has coached aggressive defenses in Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Cleveland, and his style is a welcome arrival in Nashville.  Horton inherits a front seven loaded with talent, including Jurrell Casey, perhaps the most underappreciated player of 2013. He also gets to work with a pair of exciting edge rushers in Derrick Morgan and Shaun Phillips.  The secondary is a question mark, but that conern is mitigated when the unit gets four games against Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Indianpolis Colts Defense

DL: Arthur Jones, Josh Chapman/Montori Hughes, Cory Redding
LB: Robert Mathis, Erik Walden, Jerrell Freeman, D'Qwell Jackson, Bjoern Werner
DB: Gregory Toler, Vontae Davis, LaRon Landry, Sergio Brown/Delano Howell

The key for Indianapolis is Robert Mathis, who will miss the first four games of the year for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs. Indianapolis is only used six times in this commitee, but Mathis will not be around for a pair of juicy games against the Jaguars and Titans. Still, that's not enough to write off the defense, and the best part about the Colts defense may be the offense.  Andrew Luck looks primed for a career year, and a strong Colts offense will only help the team's defense when it comes to producing sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns.  Like Tennessee, the Colts play a 3-4 defense, and boast a talented front seven.  Against weak offenses, that may be enough to produce strong fantasy numbers.

Want Just One Defense?

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. If that's your plan, it still pays to know the ability level of the offenses that each team will face. The Titans have the easiest schedule in the league, with the Cardinals and 49ers having the toughest schedules (i.e., they face the best offenses). The full list is presented below: Note that both the bye week (which was considered a 500 point week earlier in the article) and Week 17 have been removed.Here's a look at the SOS on a per-game basis for each fantasy defense:

RkTeamSOSRkTeamSOS
1 TEN 231.4 17 SD 245.0
2 PIT 232.5 18 DAL 245.1
3 BAL 235.0 19 OAK 245.3
4 CLE 235.0 20 TB 246.4
5 HOU 235.5 21 NYG 247.1
6 IND 236.8 22 GB 247.9
7 WAS 239.1 23 MIA 248.1
8 JAX 239.1 24 STL 248.4
9 CIN 240.5 25 KC 248.5
10 DET 241.2 26 NYJ 250.4
11 BUF 243.1 27 CAR 251.6
12 PHI 243.2 28 SEA 251.6
13 ATL 243.2 29 CHI 253.4
14 NO 243.5 30 MIN 254.0
15 DEN 244.1 31 SF 255.0
16 NE 244.8 32 ARI 255.9

As expected, the AFC South and AFC North teams tend to dominate the list. Those teams feature a lot of sub-par quarterback and/or offensive line play, and those defenses are primed for solid games in those matchups. Houston is an intriguing defense to watch -- with J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and an easy schedule, the Texans are poised for a bounceback year. Alas, the team isn't being drafted like a 2-14 team: Houston's D/ST is going as the 9th or 10th defense off the board in most leagues.

Every Combination

Finally, here's a look at how every combination fares:

RkCombinationValueRkCombinationValueRkCombinationValueRkCombinationValueRkCombinationValue
1 IND-TEN 216.4 101 IND-JAX 226.5 201 PIT-SF 229.8 301 CIN-KC 233 401 MIN-STL 237.7
2 IND-PIT 217.7 102 STL-TEN 226.5 202 NO-OAK 229.8 302 MIA-NYJ 233.1 402 NYJ-TB 237.7
3 TEN-WAS 217.7 103 ATL-KC 226.5 203 BAL-SF 229.8 303 PHI-STL 233.1 403 CHI-SEA 237.7
4 CIN-PIT 217.9 104 KC-WAS 226.5 204 OAK-SD 229.8 304 DEN-PHI 233.2 404 BAL-DAL 237.7
5 SD-TEN 218.3 105 HOU-TB 226.5 205 BUF-DEN 230 305 DAL-KC 233.2 405 SEA-SF 237.8
6 DAL-TEN 218.7 106 CLE-OAK 226.5 206 CIN-PHI 230 306 GB-OAK 233.3 406 CAR-STL 237.8
7 BUF-IND 218.9 107 ATL-IND 226.6 207 ATL-STL 230 307 CHI-CLE 233.3 407 NYJ-PHI 237.8
8 HOU-PIT 218.9 108 NE-TEN 226.6 208 CLE-KC 230 308 MIA-STL 233.3 408 CHI-DAL 237.8
9 CIN-TEN 219.4 109 CIN-GB 226.6 209 DEN-MIA 230.1 309 BAL-STL 233.4 409 MIN-TB 237.9
10 PIT-TEN 220.3 110 MIA-PIT 226.6 210 CLE-TB 230.1 310 BUF-SEA 233.4 410 CHI-NO 237.9
11 CIN-HOU 220.7 111 CAR-DAL 226.6 211 CAR-WAS 230.1 311 DEN-NYJ 233.4 411 ARI-CAR 237.9
12 BAL-SD 220.7 112 BUF-KC 226.6 212 GB-SD 230.1 312 CAR-SD 233.4 412 MIN-NYG 238
13 BUF-PIT 220.9 113 BAL-DEN 226.6 213 JAX-NE 230.1 313 OAK-WAS 233.4 413 SF-TB 238.1
14 BUF-CIN 220.9 114 BUF-SD 226.7 214 DAL-TB 230.1 314 BUF-CAR 233.5 414 CAR-NE 238.2
15 HOU-TEN 220.9 115 STL-WAS 226.7 215 NE-NYJ 230.1 315 KC-NYG 233.5 415 ARI-NO 238.2
16 IND-STL 221 116 ATL-PHI 226.8 216 BUF-SF 230.1 316 KC-PHI 233.5 416 DAL-SEA 238.3
17 OAK-TEN 221.1 117 BUF-JAX 226.8 217 JAX-PHI 230.1 317 GB-JAX 233.5 417 IND-SD 238.3
18 HOU-PHI 221.3 118 HOU-STL 226.9 218 BAL-KC 230.1 318 CAR-DEN 233.5 418 CIN-CLE 238.3
19 CLE-IND 221.5 119 ATL-JAX 227 219 SD-TB 230.2 319 ATL-SEA 233.6 419 DEN-SF 238.4
20 BAL-TEN 221.5 120 DET-SD 227.1 220 BUF-TB 230.3 320 SF-WAS 233.6 420 CHI-TEN 238.4
21 DET-IND 221.7 121 CIN-NYG 227.1 221 DET-WAS 230.3 321 CAR-NO 233.6 421 ARI-NYJ 238.7
22 CLE-HOU 221.9 122 IND-NYJ 227.2 222 CLE-NYJ 230.3 322 MIA-NO 233.8 422 BUF-DET 238.7
23 BAL-BUF 222.1 123 NYJ-WAS 227.2 223 BUF-NYJ 230.3 323 NE-NYG 233.8 423 ARI-MIA 238.8
24 BAL-CLE 222.1 124 CIN-NO 227.2 224 BUF-NE 230.4 324 NYJ-SEA 233.8 424 ARI-DAL 238.8
25 CIN-SD 222.3 125 ARI-IND 227.2 225 BUF-NO 230.4 325 DET-MIN 233.8 425 MIN-NYJ 238.8
26 IND-MIA 222.4 126 CAR-CIN 227.3 226 DEN-JAX 230.4 326 OAK-SEA 233.8 426 DEN-GB 238.9
27 JAX-PIT 222.4 127 DEN-PIT 227.3 227 DAL-NE 230.5 327 CHI-HOU 233.9 427 HOU-SD 238.9
28 CLE-PIT 222.5 128 CLE-GB 227.3 228 DEN-OAK 230.5 328 DEN-NYG 234 428 SD-SF 239.3
29 PHI-TEN 222.5 129 SF-TEN 227.3 229 HOU-NO 230.7 329 SF-STL 234 429 CAR-CHI 239.4
30 CLE-TEN 222.5 130 ATL-HOU 227.3 230 CAR-HOU 230.7 330 BUF-OAK 234.1 430 GB-NE 239.5
31 CIN-IND 222.6 131 CLE-NO 227.4 231 NE-SEA 230.8 331 CHI-STL 234.2 431 CHI-SD 239.6
32 CLE-WAS 222.7 132 DAL-OAK 227.4 232 IND-SF 230.8 332 CHI-PHI 234.2 432 CHI-MIN 239.8
33 BAL-HOU 222.7 133 NYG-WAS 227.4 233 ARI-PIT 230.8 333 GB-STL 234.2 433 GB-TEN 239.9
34 BAL-IND 222.9 134 MIA-SD 227.4 234 CIN-DAL 230.8 334 DAL-DEN 234.2 434 DET-TEN 240.1
35 ATL-BAL 222.9 135 MIA-WAS 227.5 235 ARI-HOU 230.9 335 NE-STL 234.3 435 IND-NE 240.1
36 CIN-WAS 222.9 136 DET-KC 227.6 236 NYJ-OAK 230.9 336 CAR-SEA 234.3 436 CAR-SF 240.1
37 NYJ-PIT 223.3 137 BAL-NYG 227.7 237 ARI-SD 231 337 SEA-TB 234.3 437 CAR-PIT 240.2
38 JAX-SD 223.4 138 GB-PIT 227.7 238 TB-WAS 231 338 HOU-SF 234.4 438 MIN-SEA 240.3
39 SEA-TEN 223.4 139 IND-SEA 227.7 239 BUF-STL 231 339 CIN-TB 234.4 439 BAL-JAX 240.4
40 ATL-PIT 223.4 140 CLE-DAL 227.7 240 ATL-NO 231 340 MIA-TB 234.4 440 MIN-SF 240.5
41 KC-TEN 223.5 141 NE-PIT 227.7 241 DAL-MIN 231.1 341 ARI-BUF 234.4 441 ARI-NYG 240.5
42 OAK-PIT 223.5 142 DAL-SD 227.8 242 NYG-SD 231.1 342 DET-SF 234.5 442 NYJ-STL 240.6
43 BAL-PIT 223.6 143 BAL-SEA 227.8 243 JAX-MIA 231.1 343 DAL-STL 234.5 443 CAR-MIN 240.7
44 DAL-HOU 223.7 144 HOU-SEA 227.8 244 DEN-TB 231.1 344 BUF-TEN 234.5 444 CHI-NE 240.7
45 NYG-PIT 223.7 145 ARI-TEN 227.8 245 CIN-SF 231.2 345 BUF-MIN 234.6 445 ARI-TB 240.8
46 PIT-STL 223.7 146 BAL-GB 227.9 246 ATL-NYJ 231.2 346 OAK-STL 234.6 446 ARI-OAK 241.1
47 CIN-OAK 223.8 147 NO-WAS 227.9 247 JAX-TB 231.2 347 DEN-NO 234.6 447 NE-SD 241.4
48 TB-TEN 223.9 148 CLE-NE 227.9 248 NE-TB 231.2 348 ARI-PHI 234.6 448 ARI-SF 241.5
49 NO-TEN 224 149 MIN-PIT 228 249 ATL-TB 231.2 349 MIN-NO 234.7 449 DAL-JAX 241.5
50 IND-OAK 224.3 150 BAL-CIN 228 250 ATL-NE 231.3 350 ARI-JAX 234.7 450 NO-NYG 241.6
51 CIN-MIA 224.3 151 BAL-DET 228 251 CAR-KC 231.3 351 CIN-NYJ 234.9 451 NO-SF 241.6
52 BUF-WAS 224.3 152 DEN-SD 228.1 252 NE-NO 231.3 352 ARI-DET 234.9 452 ARI-GB 241.6
53 CIN-DET 224.4 153 GB-HOU 228.1 253 DEN-NE 231.4 353 BUF-MIA 235 453 CLE-STL 241.7
54 DET-HOU 224.4 154 JAX-NO 228.2 254 CLE-MIN 231.4 354 KC-STL 235 454 SD-WAS 241.7
55 BAL-WAS 224.5 155 IND-KC 228.2 255 ATL-SF 231.4 355 CAR-OAK 235.1 455 HOU-NE 241.8
56 DAL-WAS 224.5 156 DET-NYG 228.2 256 BAL-CAR 231.5 356 PHI-SEA 235.1 456 MIA-MIN 241.8
57 ATL-WAS 224.5 157 DAL-MIA 228.2 257 CAR-JAX 231.5 357 ARI-ATL 235.1 457 CLE-DEN 242
58 JAX-WAS 224.5 158 NYG-PHI 228.2 258 BUF-HOU 231.5 358 GB-MIN 235.1 458 CIN-DEN 242.4
59 HOU-JAX 224.6 159 GB-IND 228.2 259 NO-SD 231.6 359 DEN-DET 235.2 459 KC-NYJ 242.4
60 CLE-DET 224.6 160 KC-OAK 228.3 260 NO-STL 231.6 360 CHI-NYJ 235.2 460 ARI-CHI 242.4
61 IND-TB 224.8 161 DEN-HOU 228.3 261 DET-TB 231.6 361 NYG-STL 235.3 461 ATL-DET 242.4
62 BUF-CLE 224.8 162 MIA-NE 228.3 262 NO-TB 231.7 362 ATL-CAR 235.4 462 IND-MIN 242.8
63 KC-PIT 224.8 163 ATL-OAK 228.3 263 JAX-NYG 231.7 363 DAL-SF 235.4 463 BAL-NYJ 243.3
64 DAL-IND 224.8 164 SEA-WAS 228.3 264 DAL-NYG 231.7 364 CAR-GB 235.5 464 MIN-OAK 243.5
65 NYG-TEN 224.9 165 ATL-MIA 228.4 265 CAR-TEN 231.7 365 CHI-KC 235.5 465 CLE-SEA 243.7
66 PHI-WAS 224.9 166 JAX-KC 228.4 266 ATL-NYG 231.8 366 GB-NO 235.5 466 ARI-MIN 243.7
67 DAL-DET 224.9 167 NYJ-SD 228.5 267 MIN-PHI 231.8 367 DAL-GB 235.5 467 NE-WAS 244
68 PIT-TB 225 168 HOU-NYJ 228.5 268 GB-KC 231.9 368 CHI-OAK 235.8 468 CIN-SEA 244.3
69 CIN-NE 225 169 OAK-PHI 228.5 269 CHI-TB 231.9 369 DEN-MIN 235.8 469 BUF-GB 245
70 PIT-SD 225 170 DET-PIT 228.5 270 CLE-SF 232.1 370 CAR-NYJ 235.8 470 MIN-SD 245.2
71 SD-STL 225 171 CLE-PHI 228.6 271 DET-NYJ 232.1 371 HOU-IND 235.9 471 CHI-DET 245.4
72 IND-NO 225 172 BAL-MIA 228.6 272 JAX-SF 232.1 372 MIA-SF 235.9 472 DAL-NYJ 245.4
73 CLE-MIA 225.3 173 DET-MIA 228.7 273 GB-TB 232.2 373 ARI-WAS 236 473 CHI-SF 245.7
74 DEN-IND 225.3 174 CHI-CIN 228.8 274 NO-SEA 232.2 374 OAK-TB 236 474 DET-GB 245.8
75 BUF-PHI 225.3 175 NE-PHI 228.8 275 HOU-MIA 232.3 375 NYJ-SF 236 475 ATL-BUF 245.9
76 ATL-CLE 225.3 176 CHI-PIT 228.9 276 CAR-PHI 232.3 376 ATL-TEN 236.1 476 ARI-CLE 246.1
77 IND-PHI 225.3 177 DET-SEA 229 277 BUF-NYG 232.3 377 KC-SF 236.1 477 KC-NO 246.4
78 MIA-PHI 225.4 178 DET-OAK 229 278 CHI-WAS 232.4 378 CAR-DET 236.2 478 JAX-NYJ 246.6
79 PIT-SEA 225.4 179 DEN-TEN 229.1 279 HOU-NYG 232.4 379 MIA-NYG 236.2 479 MIN-WAS 247.3
80 JAX-TEN 225.5 180 MIN-TEN 229.2 280 DET-NE 232.4 380 NE-SF 236.4 480 ARI-CIN 247.5
81 CIN-JAX 225.6 181 CHI-IND 229.2 281 NYG-OAK 232.4 381 KC-MIN 236.4 481 CIN-STL 247.5
82 IND-NYG 225.6 182 DET-NO 229.2 282 DEN-KC 232.5 382 NO-NYJ 236.4 482 DEN-STL 247.8
83 BAL-CHI 225.7 183 SD-SEA 229.3 283 JAX-SEA 232.5 383 KC-SEA 236.5 483 ATL-CHI 247.9
84 BAL-PHI 225.7 184 ATL-SD 229.3 284 GB-PHI 232.5 384 NYG-NYJ 236.5 484 ATL-GB 248.2
85 NO-PIT 225.7 185 CLE-JAX 229.3 285 CHI-MIA 232.5 385 STL-TB 236.5 485 MIA-OAK 248.2
86 PHI-PIT 225.8 186 ATL-MIN 229.4 286 KC-TB 232.5 386 NE-OAK 236.6 486 BUF-CHI 248.2
87 MIA-TEN 225.9 187 BAL-TB 229.4 287 OAK-SF 232.5 387 ARI-KC 236.6 487 HOU-MIN 248.6
88 CAR-IND 225.9 188 CHI-JAX 229.5 288 DET-STL 232.6 388 JAX-MIN 236.7 488 MIN-NE 249.1
89 BAL-NO 225.9 189 BUF-DAL 229.5 289 HOU-OAK 232.6 389 GB-SEA 236.7 489 PHI-TB 249.6
90 DET-JAX 225.9 190 PHI-SD 229.5 290 JAX-STL 232.6 390 CAR-NYG 236.7 490 SEA-STL 249.6
91 ATL-CIN 226 191 CAR-CLE 229.6 291 DAL-PHI 232.6 391 PHI-SF 236.7 491 CHI-GB 251.8
92 PIT-WAS 226.1 192 ATL-DAL 229.6 292 KC-NE 232.6 392 IND-WAS 236.8 492 DEN-SEA 251.9
93 HOU-KC 226.1 193 JAX-OAK 229.6 293 DAL-NO 232.7 393 CAR-MIA 236.9 493 ARI-DEN 252.4
94 BAL-OAK 226.1 194 BAL-NE 229.6 294 NYG-TB 232.7 394 HOU-WAS 237 494 ARI-SEA 253.8
95 KC-SD 226.2 195 KC-MIA 229.7 295 NYG-SEA 232.7 395 GB-NYG 237.1 495 NYG-SF 255.1
96 NYJ-TEN 226.2 196 GB-WAS 229.7 296 GB-NYJ 232.7 396 CHI-NYG 237.2 496 ARI-STL 255.5
97 DAL-PIT 226.3 197 CIN-MIN 229.7 297 BAL-MIN 232.7 397 CAR-TB 237.2 0
98 CLE-NYG 226.3 198 DET-PHI 229.7 298 MIA-SEA 232.8 398 ARI-NE 237.3 0
99 DEN-WAS 226.4 199 NO-PHI 229.7 299 ARI-BAL 232.9 399 CHI-DEN 237.3 0
100 CLE-SD 226.4 200 GB-MIA 229.7 300 ATL-DEN 232.9 400 GB-SF 237.5 0
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