Defensive Team by Committee

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

For twelve straight years, Footballguys has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, making it difficult to predict which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will excel. And, at least in theory, the teams available at the ends of your drafts should provide less rewards. So how do you get great production out of the position while saving your most important draft picks?

We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. By starting your defense based on matchups, your D/ST will generally face a weak offense, meaning your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

When picking a D/ST committee, you should look for four factors:

•     A very easy combined schedule
•     Two teams with late average draft positions (ADPs)
•     Elite pass rushers and defensive backs with good hands
•     Reason to expect improvement in 2013

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - 2 x (Interceptions thrown + Fumbles Lost).  While most leagues award significant points for sacks, we don't project offensive sacks allowed data. But don’t worry: we’ll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC.  Here is how Footballguys projects the offenses:

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned each team the offensive rating of their opponent in each week. I also added three points to the offense's rating when they are at home and took away three points when the offense is on the road.  Bye weeks are valued at 500 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team’s schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in Week 17.

2014 Defensive Team by Committee: Tennessee and Indianapolis

Right now, neither the Titans nor the Colts are being drafted in most fantasy leagues; that means it's easy for you to snatch them up with your final two picks.  The fact that both units are going undrafted may give you pause: after all, neither team, on paper, has a talented defense.  But let me offer some counterpoints.

• Four games against the Jaguars
• Two games against the Browns
• Two games against the Texans
• Two games against teams that play in East Rutherford, New Jersey
• One game against the Titans

That's 11 games against bottom-10 offenses.  Games against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Cincinnati are hardly nightmare matchups, which leaves a home game against Dallas the scariest matchup on the schedule.  Unfortunately, the two hardest games this schedule faces are in weeks 1 and 2; after that, it's a fantastic slate of opponents for this committee.

• Week 1:  Titans @ Chiefs (251.5)
• Week 2:  Titans vs. Cowboys (253.1)
• Week 3:  Colts @ Jaguars (188.6)
• Week 4:  Colts vs. Titans (221.9)
• Week 5:  Titans vs. Browns (201.1)
• Week 6:  Titans vs. Jaguars (182.6)
• Week 7:  Colts vs. Bengals (231.3)
• Week 8:  Titans vs. Texans (219.1)
• Week 9:  Colts @ Giants (219.8)
• Week 10: Titans @ Ravens (237.3)
• Week 11: Titans vs. Steelers (233.3)
• Week 12: Colts vs. Jaguars (182.6)
• Week 13: Titans @ Texans (225.1)
• Week 14: Colts @ Browns (207.1)
• Week 15: Titans vs. Jets (218.7)
• Week 16: Titans @ Jaguars (188.6)

Tennessee Titans Defense

DL: Ropati Pitoitua, Sammie Lee Hill, Jurrell Casey
LB: Derrick Morgan, Shaun Phillips, Kamerion Wimbley, Wesley Woodyard, Zach Brown, Akeem Ayers
DB: Jason McCourty, Coty Sensabaugh, Bernard Pollard, Michael Griffin

The big change in Tennessee is the arrival of defensive coordinator Ray Horton and the switch to the 3-4 defense.  Horton has coached aggressive defenses in Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Cleveland, and his style is a welcome arrival in Nashville.  Horton inherits a front seven loaded with talent, including Jurrell Casey, perhaps the most underappreciated player of 2013. He also gets to work with a pair of exciting edge rushers in Derrick Morgan and Shaun Phillips.  The secondary is a question mark, but that conern is mitigated when the unit gets four games against Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Indianpolis Colts Defense

DL: Arthur Jones, Josh Chapman/Montori Hughes, Cory Redding
LB: Robert Mathis, Erik Walden, Jerrell Freeman, D'Qwell Jackson, Bjoern Werner
DB: Gregory Toler, Vontae Davis, LaRon Landry, Sergio Brown/Delano Howell

The key for Indianapolis is Robert Mathis, who will miss the first four games of the year for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing drugs. Indianapolis is only used six times in this commitee, but Mathis will not be around for a pair of juicy games against the Jaguars and Titans. Still, that's not enough to write off the defense, and the best part about the Colts defense may be the offense.  Andrew Luck looks primed for a career year, and a strong Colts offense will only help the team's defense when it comes to producing sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns.  Like Tennessee, the Colts play a 3-4 defense, and boast a talented front seven.  Against weak offenses, that may be enough to produce strong fantasy numbers.

Want Just One Defense?

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. If that's your plan, it still pays to know the ability level of the offenses that each team will face. The Titans have the easiest schedule in the league, with the Cardinals and 49ers having the toughest schedules (i.e., they face the best offenses). The full list is presented below: Note that both the bye week (which was considered a 500 point week earlier in the article) and Week 17 have been removed.Here's a look at the SOS on a per-game basis for each fantasy defense:

As expected, the AFC South and AFC North teams tend to dominate the list. Those teams feature a lot of sub-par quarterback and/or offensive line play, and those defenses are primed for solid games in those matchups. Houston is an intriguing defense to watch -- with J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and an easy schedule, the Texans are poised for a bounceback year. Alas, the team isn't being drafted like a 2-14 team: Houston's D/ST is going as the 9th or 10th defense off the board in most leagues.

Every Combination

Finally, here's a look at how every combination fares: