Coaching Carousel: Marc Trestman

Photo: Imagn Images

Gary Kubiak spent just one season with the Baltimore Ravens and last year marked the first time in franchise history that the team ranked among the top-12 NFL teams in total points scored and total offensive yards. Normally, when losing a coach of that caliber, you would expect major regression. However, the arrival of Marc Trestman could very well lead to the 2015 NFL season being the second time in franchise history for Ravens to reach those ranks, albeit in a different manner.

Trestman is a football lifer, being involved in coaching since 1981, when he volunteered at the University of Miami. His ascension up the coaching ranks was quick, entering the NFL as a positions coach in 1985 and then becoming an offensive coordinator for the first time in 1989 with the Cleveland Browns. Since then, he's bounced around quite turbulently, reaching the Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator with the Oakland Raiders, and with stops as a offensive coordinator back in the NCAA ranks--at North Carolina State--and also in the Canadian Football League with the Montreal Alouettes--his first head coaching position. In 2013, he became the head coach for the Chicago Bears and injected new life into their offense before the team stumbled the following season, leading to the end of his tenure there.

Team Offense with Trestman as HC or OC

As a whole, there has been a lot of variance in Trestman's coaching history when considering his offenses' team totals. His teams have ranked among the top-three highest-scoring teams in four of his 10 seasons, but ranked 23rd or worse in four other seasons. Injuries and dysfunction contributed to that variance though. The latter should not be an issue under John Harbaugh and while the former is out of any coach's hands, Joe Flacco has not missed a game in any of his seven NFL seasons.

TEAM Passing WITH TRESTMAN AS HC OR OC

Trestman has been affectionately referred to as the "quarterback whisperer" in many football circles and his team passing totals reinforce that label. His offenses rank, on average, in the top-10 for completions and passing attempts each season. In his most recent NFL stops, Rich Gannon, Jay Cutler, and even Josh McCown have experienced their most prolific seasons. Flacco has averaged just 523 pass attemps per season throughout his career and 561 pass attempts over the past four seasons. It should be considered a safe assumption that Flacco will at least meet those averages with smart money being on him surpassing them.

Over the past two seasons, we've seen Chicago's receivers shine--namely Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett. Their success has not been an exception, but rather the norm under Trestman, whose pass-happy nature has uplifted receivers throughout his career. Granted, the coach has benefiited from a stellar cast of receivers, which includes Jerry Rice during Trestman's two years with San Francisco and then an aging Rice, along with Tim Brown, during his time with Oakland. However, in addition to the high-volume of pass attempts, the distribution also weighs heavily in favor of gaudy production from singular players. This is because Trestman's offenses have regularly displayed a high concentration of targets focused on only a few players.

Passing Distribution Under Trestman as OC or HC

Locked in as the No. 1 wide receiver for Baltimore will be veteran, Steve Smith Sr., who continues to break the laws of aging. Smith caught 79 passes last year, matching his highest total since 2007. While he doesn't profile as an elite option any longer, Trestman's arrival should limit any decline that would be naturally expected. While it should not be assumed that Smith post similar numbers to Trestman's averages for a No. 1 wide receiver due to his age, that same age may very well keep Smith's cost kept low while he still produces statistics bordering on WR2 value in fantasy football.

Expected to be lining up opposite Smith will be rookie, Breshad Perriman. The departure of Torrey Smith left a major void in the vertical passing game--an area where Flacco excels--and Perriman's skillset is a terrific fit to fill that void. In T. Smith's first two seasons, he caught at least 49 receptions and totaled no less than 841 receiving yards to go along with at least seven touchdowns. He played opposite Anquan Boldin in those seasons, which is comparable to Perriman's current standing opposite Smith Sr. Trestman should only further accentuate the vertical passing game and the average production of 61-824-5 that his No. 2 wide receivers have averaged offers cause for further optimism regarding Perriman.

There has not been much attention given to No. 3 wide receivers under Trestman's watch and with marginal talents such as Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown vying for that title, it would not be wise to bet against that history.

A similar story can be told for tight ends, which have also not proven to be a focal point for much of Trestman's coaching career. However, Bennett has changed the course of history for this position, performing as a strong TE1 over each of the past two seasons. Maxx Williams was widely recognized as the best receiving tight end in the draft and was selected by Baltimore in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Historically, rookie tight ends have struggled and although Williams may have a bright future, a consistent fantasy presence should not be expected in his first year.

TEAM Rushing WITH TRESTMAN AS HC OR OC

Not once in Trestman's career have his offenses ranked higher than 15 among NFL teams in carries. More recently, even though his team's yards-per-carry display more efficiency than in years past, his team's carries have trended downward. This all leads to it being clear that the running game is secondary for Trestman. Nevertheless, that does not mean his running backs carry less fantasy football value.

Running Back Production Under Trestman as OC or HC

In the past two seasons with Chicago, Matt Forte has performed as an elite RB1. Much of his success has been do to his involvement as a receiver, where he's averaged an incredible 88 receptions per season--a steep increase from the 53 receptions per season he averaged in prior seasons. Over Trestman's career, his lead running backs have averaged 65 receptions per season and that average rises to 70 if you choose to count Larry Centers as his lead back in 1998, when he caught 69 passes as opposed to the 18 receptions caught by the half back, Adrian Murrell.

The current No. 1 back for Baltimore is Justin Forsett, who had a breakout season under Kubiak, finishing as a top-10 running back in fantasy football. Forsett has been successful in limited roles throughout all of his NFL stops and last season is proof that he is more than capable of being a lead back. Nevertheless, he does not profile as a typical workhorse and the team has indicated they do not view him as such either. This likely means that Trestman will incorporate a two-back system more in line with the historical production above that project a 70/30 split. Even so, Forsett should remain the predominant receiving back for Baltimore and will hold weight as an RB2 in PPR leagues with strong FLEX value in STD leagues.

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