For many years, running backs were the unquestioned kings of fantasy football. Success or failure in fantasy hinged mostly on how good your backfield was. The first round was perennially dominated by running backs, with nine or 10 of the first 12 picks hailing from that position.
RELATED: See Quarterback Strategy here.
But times change--both in the NFL and fantasy football. The current ADP data is still just coming together, but in early drafts, seven of the first 12 picks this year are wide receivers.
There are multiple reasons for this shift in philosophy. Most leagues are PPR now, where wide receivers get a value boost. As a whole, running backs have a higher bust rate than wide receivers, and no one wants their first pick to be a turkey. Running backs are also more prone to injuries (it's just the nature of the position)--and the only thing worse than a turkey is a turkey with a bad drumstick.
Scarcity is also increasingly becoming an issue at running back. Last year, one running back (Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley, who is a major bust candidate this year) averaged 20 carries per game. Only six backs had 275 carries. As more and more teams turn to committee backfields, true three-down "workhorse" backs have become rarer--and more valuable.
Add that volatility and scarcity together, and you have arguably the trickiest position in fantasy football to draft well. But while running backs have become a thornier spot, assembling a solid backfield is still vitally important if you want to have a successful season.
And as it happens, there are a few different ways to go about doing that.
Running Back Draft Strategies
Door No. 1: Robust RB
This is the oldest running back draft strategy--and the one with the worst nickname. I mean, "Robust?" Can we, as a community, do a better job than that? Can't we call it "Geezer Ball?" "Classic RB?" "You Punk Kids Get Off My Lawn?"
Okay, that last one was a reach.
Quite simply, this is the strategy that dominated fantasy football for years. Hitting the running back position early and hard. Selecting a pair of running backs with two of your first three picks. Or even with your first two picks. Good old "RB/RB."
The positives here are simple enough. Drafting say Bijan Robinson of the Falcons and Chase Brown of the Bengals gives your team two workhorse backs who should sail past 300 touches for the season. These high-end backs often offer the best combination of fantasy floor and ceiling. And the bust rates for running backs are generally lowest in the first few rounds of the draft.
The negatives are also simple enough. If you blast away at running back, your wide receivers are going to suffer as a result. It also probably means that taking either an elite quarterback or an elite tight end is off the table. Draft two high-end backs, an elite quarterback, and a Tier 1 tight end, and your wideouts are going to be...ungood. You also really need both those backs to hit--that's your edge.
Drafting both starters (assuming a standard league with two weekly starters in the backfield) early also helps fantasy managers avoid the dreaded RB Dead Zone.
The RB Dead Zone
The RB Dead Zone is a prison-like parallel dimension where General Zod was once locked up. When Superman banishes a running back there, they are gone forever. Poof!
Wait, that's The Phantom Zone. Never mind.
Actually, the RB Dead Zone is the portion of the draft where running back bust rates are highest relative to the bust rates at wide receiver. The bust rates at the two positions are similar in the first few rounds. And once you get to the double-digit rounds, everyone's a crapshoot. But there's a several-round region in the middle rounds where running backs have a significantly higher bust rate than at wide receiver. This doesn't mean you can't find values in the backfield in these rounds. But the odds are against you.
It used to be that the RB Dead Zone was considered to start around Round 4 and end around Round 8. However, it can vary by draft, and with more managers targeting wide receivers early, the Dead Zone has shifted back somewhat.
If you're looking at drafting Tony Pollard of the Titans or Isiah Pacheco of the Chiefs, you're in the Dead Zone.
Tread carefully.
Door No. 2: Hero RB
Hero RB (or Anchor RB if you love bad nicknames) is a middle ground of sorts between Robust RB and Zero RB. There are essentially two steps, at least in the backfield.
Step 1 is to use one of your first two picks on a Top-10 (or at least Top-12) running back. That guy is your Hero.
You had to know that was coming. You have been warned. More than once.
Step 2 is to fill out the rest of your starting lineup before drafting a second running back. Three wide receivers. A quarterback. A tight end. Maybe even a fourth wideout to plug into the flex spot. Only then do you target an RB2.
The advantage gained by this strategy is the potential for a more balanced lineup. A strong trio of wide receivers. A higher-end starter under center that can just be plugged in every week. A tight end that can be started without needing three shots of Beefeater to stop from sobbing. There is more than a little appeal to such a build.
The downside is that, depending on where the RB Dead Zone is in your draft, you may be plucking your RB2 from it. That's not the end of the world--D'Andre Swift of the Bears would likely be considered a Dead Zone RB by many fantasy managers this year, and this writer believes he's undervalued. But there is risk. Also, if your Hero back busts? Well then, sir or madam, you gots problems.
Door No. 3: Zero RB
Zero RB has gained popularity over the last decade or so--so much so that its prevalence may actually be hindering its effectiveness. Proponents look at the volatility of running backs, the increased injury risk, and bust rates--and punt the position.
And when I say punt, I mean punt. Ignore the position entirely. Wide receivers? Load up. Quarterback? Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, come on down! Tight end? Why, I will take a slice of Trey McBride of the Cardinals, thank you very much.
Some will target their first running back toward the back of the RB Dead Zone. Others will wait until the double-digit rounds and target young upside plays or backups who are one tweaked knee away from a much larger role. Some will just throw picks at the wall and see if any stick. If they don't, they will try to fill a startable back on the waiver wire.
The advantage here is obvious: strength at other positions. A formidable cadre of wide receivers. High-end quarterbacks and tight ends who are more reliable on a weekly basis. Again, that's the edge.
The disadvantage is equally obvious: your running backs could be trash. It could be a coin flip (at best) whether any of the dart throws you make will hit a target. And as more and more fantasy managers have realized the importance of those young upside backs and depth in the backfield, they have become more attractive draft targets. Also, any running back with half a pulse will be a popular fella on the waiver wire--always. There is no guarantee that the targets they covet will be attainable.
It's a high-risk, high-reward strategy--and not one for the faint of heart.
No Plan Survives Contact With the Enemy
For this guy, Robust RB or Hero RB is usually my preferred strategy. I'm rather old-school, and if there isn't a back on my roster when the RB Dead Zone hits, I tend to get twitchy. But one of the most important things fantasy managers need to remember heading into the draft is to be flexible.
If you head into draft day thinking Robust RB is the way to go and eight of your leaguemates are like-minded, then wide receivers are going to start falling into bargain territory. Ditto if nine teams in a league all decide that Zero RB is the only way to fly.
Drafts are won by selecting players in positions of value, whether they are running backs, wide receivers, or Vontae Mack.
Let the value come to you. And if that means changing strategies, so be it.
Channel your inner Costner.
Values, Busts, and Sleepers
Break out the blindfolds! It's darts time!