A look at a predictive model for rookie receivers, as well as a discussion on the use a...
Listing reasons for optimism for each playoff team and picking games for fun, not profi...
A good theory should always match reality.
Wrapping up a season's worth of predictions and looking back on the last seven years.
Recapping the season and picking games for fun, not profit.
Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.
How much luck is inherent in fantasy football? It depends on what you mean by "inherent...
The key to regression is betting on stable factors and ignoring the unstable ones. A pl...
Discussing a sneaky advantage of not having an edge, plus picking games for fun, not pr...
A different way of thinking about multiple tendencies.
It's good to be right. But it's bad to be too right.
Some quick math for your game picks pools, plus picking games for fun, not profit.
When everyone's searching for the easy way out, sometimes the most profitable path is t...
Investigating the ins and outs of futures and picking games for fun, not profit.
Your best team is probably going to lose in the playoffs. (Sorry.)
Something is happening to older players.
Recent weeks might seem more relevant, but you're almost always better off considering ...
Taking stock of our gambling results and picking games for fun, not profit.
Developmental opportunities are a finite resource.
Everyone regresses to their mean. But some means are moving targets.
Are there "good" narratives to bet on? No (but there aren't bad ones, either).
What can video game development teach us about tanking in dynasty leagues?
League leaders are almost by definition lucky (even when they're also good).
You can't disagree with math just because it's inconvenient for you.
Some ideas are too controversial to discuss in dynasty. Let's discuss them.
When it comes to regression, bigger is better.
Can Artificial Intelligence give us an edge over Vegas? (No.)
Throwing darts can be good (especially if you have a lot of darts).
Everyone will regress to their mean. But how do we know what that mean is?
Lines can and will vary throughout the week. But they also vary between sites.
If you want to get the most out of your roster, all you have to do is concentrate.
Checking in on our office pools.
On the important difference between noting a player will regress and suggesting a playe...
Trade deadlines are everywhere in dynasty. Should they be?
Quarterback stats don't regress as much. With one big exception.
Thoughts on bankroll management (or: how the house can bankrupt you even if you do have...
Buying future picks can be good. But how far in the future is far enough?
Unders are winning. We like winning. Should we bet unders?
Usually it's safe to predict regression for historical outliers. (But not always.)
The difference between dynasty and redraft is a concern for the future. But how far in ...
In a world where new stats are introduced every year, how can we tell which ones are wo...
Some thoughts on "betting systems".
So you have an opinion. Great! Now what should you do with it?
How well do early-season results predict the rest of the year?
Is betting player props better than picking sides? That depends.
Is it better to know many things, or one big thing?
Yards regress, but touchdowns regress more.
Explaining "The System", and picking a few games for fun, not profit.
Some advice on how to get managers to click accept on your offers.
Yards per carry: is it a thing? Adam Harstad digs in.
A brief primer on moneylines, and picking a few games for fun, not profit.
Knowing when to rebuild is more important than knowing how to rebuild, but knowing how ...
Some tips on how to win your office picks pool, and picking a few games for fun, not pr...
What is regression to the mean? And most importantly, how can it help you win at fantas...
When it comes to rebuilding, knowing when is probably more important than knowing ...
Betting NFL games for fun, not profit
Even fair trades can be bad if they lock you out of future opportunities.
A simple trick to increase the value of your roster over time.
Drafting ADP fallers is the only guaranteed winning strategy. Here's how to do it.
Winning is the goal; it shouldn't be the target.
Lots of draft strategies claim to be the best. This one can back it up.
Simple rules of thumb often outperform more complex models. Here are two for your rooki...
In a world of increasing complexity, sometimes simple rules of thumb perform the best.
Player comparisons can be a very powerful tool when done correctly. Most of the time th...