Articles by Adam Harstad

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Dynasty, in Theory: Dynasty is a Game of Pricing Risks

Winning in dynasty is about being the least wrong the most often.

Regression Alert: Week 9

When it comes to regression, more is better.

Odds and Ends: Week 9

Checking in on our office pools.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 9

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

How Much Does Losing a Star Player Actually Hurt?

It sucks when one of your star players misses games, but how much does it really damage...

Regression Alert: Week 8

Throwing interceptions is pretty random. Catching them is, too.

Odds and Ends: Week 8

Thoughts on bankroll management (or: how the house can bankrupt you even if you do have...

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 8

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Dynasty, in Theory: How to be Wrong

Being wrong hurts your chances a lot less if you do it the right way.

Odds and Ends: Week 7

Unders are winning. We like winning. Should we bet unders?

Regression Alert: Week 7

How can we predict regression on a stat we've never seen before?

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 7

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Dynasty, in Theory: How to Trade in Inactive Leages

An examination of my approach to trading and thoughts on why it's been so successful.

Odds and Ends: Week 6

Talking prop bets and picking a few games for fun, not profit.

Regression Alert: Week 6

In a world where new stats are introduced every year, how can we tell which ones are wo...

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 6

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Dynasty, in Theory: The Injury Bounce

Market inefficiencies inevitably close. Except this one.

Regression Alert: Week 5

Revisiting Preseason Expectations (The Tenth Anniversary)

Odds and Ends: Week 5

Talking prop bets and picking a few games for fun, not profit.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 5

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Dynasty in Theory: Managing Your Imaginary Teams

All fantasy football teams are technically imaginary, but some are more imaginary than ...

Regression Alert: Week 4

Yards regress, but touchdowns regress more.

Odds and Ends: Week 4

Explaining "The System", and picking a few games for fun, not profit.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 4

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Dynasty in Theory: The 2 Value Paradigm

Another way to look at your roster to maximize long-term production.

Regression Alert: Week 3

Yards per carry: is it a thing?

Odds and Ends: Week 3

A brief primer on moneylines, and picking a few games for fun, not profit.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 3

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Dynasty, in Theory: The 5 Position Paradigm

Proposing a new framework for evaluating your roster to maximize long-term success.

Odds and Ends: Week 2

Some tips on how to win your office picks pool, and picking a few games for fun, not pr...

Regression Alert: Week 2

What is regression to the mean? And most importantly, how can it help you win at fantas...

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 2

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Odds and Ends: Week 1

Betting NFL games for fun, not profit.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 1

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

How to Value Suspended Players in Fantasy Football

A quick and dirty trick for adjusting player values on the fly in the face of early-sea...

How I Prepared for the Scott Fish Bowl in Just Three Hours

How Footballguys got me ready for one of the most notoriously complicated fantasy footb...

What's Going On With Wide Receiver Contracts?

If it feels like wide receiver contracts are out of control, it's not just you. Here's ...

Derrick Henry or Ezekiel Elliott?

Who is more valuable, a shooting star who plays half the year or a steady producer who ...

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 18

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Regression Alert: Week 18

Wrapping up a season's worth of predictions and looking back at the last five years.

Regression Alert: Week 17

When it comes to football, talent is the most important consideration. And incoming tal...

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 17

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Regression Alert: Week 16

Finding an edge is good. Scaling it is better.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 16

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Regression Alert: Week 15

Congratulations to all of your teams that made the playoffs. They'll probably lose.

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 15

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.

Regression Alert: Week 14

Recent weeks might seem more relevant, but you're almost always better off considering ...

Rent-a-Kicker: Week 14

Finding startable kicker production on your fantasy waiver wire.