A look at a predictive model for rookie receivers, as well as a discussion on the use a...
IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that reviews recent stat trends from an IDP perspective.
Wrapping up a season's worth of predictions and looking back on the last seven years.
The key to regression is betting on stable factors and ignoring the unstable ones. A pl...
It's good to be right. But it's bad to be too right.
Your best team is probably going to lose in the playoffs. (Sorry.)
Recent weeks might seem more relevant, but you're almost always better off considering ...
Everyone regresses to their mean. But some means are moving targets.
League leaders are almost by definition lucky (even when they're also good).
When it comes to regression, bigger is better.
Everyone will regress to their mean. But how do we know what that mean is?
On the important difference between noting a player will regress and suggesting a playe...
Quarterback stats don't regress as much. With one big exception.
Usually it's safe to predict regression for historical outliers. (But not always.)
In a world where new stats are introduced every year, how can we tell which ones are wo...
How well do early-season results predict the rest of the year?
Yards regress, but touchdowns regress more.
The Game Predictor is our primary tool to establish how each team will attempt to play ...
Yards per carry: is it a thing? Adam Harstad digs in.
Jeff Bell takes a trip through significant AFC statistical milestones that could fall i...
Jeff Bell takes a trip through significant NFC statistical milestones that could fall i...
Sigmund Bloom lists his rookies in a big-board format so you can more easily find value...