Chris Olave

"Concussions weight heavily on ADP, but the discount has gone too far, particularly if Saints QB situation clears up soon."

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Olave’s ADP was WR12 each of the past two years. Now he’s going outside the top 30. The concussions and scary quarterback situation are more than baked in.

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Olave is one of my favorite young receivers, but he got saddled with Derek Carr. Teams have been sniffing around Olave in the trade market, but the Saints have an incentive to give rookie Tyler Shough a strong weapon and hope Shough can develop into a viable starter. 

Don't count on it. Olave will have good games but without a proven quarterback, he's not stringing together a season commensurate with his ceiling. 

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He's worth investing in at his reduced cost this year, thanks to recency bias. He’s a very good athlete with 4.39 40-yard dash speed, and zooming out allows us to see a macro-level sample size of great production. Olave put up 849 yards and 12 touchdowns as a sophomore at Ohio State, 729 yards and 7 touchdowns in only seven games as a junior, and 936 yards and 13 touchdowns as a senior. He then entered the NFL as a first-round selection and commanded 119 targets, catching 72 passes for 1,042 yards and 4 touchdowns as a rookie in only 15 games. He followed that up in 2023 by commanding 138 targets and recording 87 receptions for 1,123 yards and 5 touchdowns.