Why Standard Rankings Lose at Fantasy Football
Changing a league to 1 point-per-reception should, mathematically, move the second best RB from #2 overall to #7.
In a 2QB 10-team league, four QBs should be drafted in the first 10 picks. Change that same league to 14 teams, and eight QBs should be drafted in the first 10 picks.
Little changes can make a big difference.
For over 20 years now, Footballguys have been the inventors and pioneers in Value Based Drafting (VBD). That's just a fancy way to say, we look at your league and give you rankings that work for you. Not for us, and not for standard leagues.
Try changing the league settings at the top of this page and see how much the rankings change! You'll never draft from a standard cheatsheet again.
About Upside & Downside New
New for 2023, we're going beyond just a number ranking and giving additional insight into how we see a player with what we're calling "Upside" and "Downside".
Think of "Upside" and "Downside" as a "Range of Outcomes". Or as "Ceiling and Floor".
Important: This information is based on where the player is currently ranked.
A top-rated player has little room to go anywhere upwards from where they're ranked. A bottom-rated player has little room to go down from where they're ranked.
Some notes and examples:
- Think of "Upside" and "Downside" as the range of outcomes based on where the player is ranked.
- A player can, but doesn't necessarily have both upside and downside.
- If a player is ranked QB10 by an Expert and they think he has a realistic chance to be QB3, he has a ton of upside for that ranker.
- If a player is ranked QB10 for an Expert and they think he has a realistic chance to be QB25, he has a ton of downside for that ranker.
- If a player is ranked QB10 by an expert and they feel pretty sure he'll be at best QB8 and at worst QB12, he doesn't have much upside or downside for that ranker.
- If an Expert has a player as their QB1, he doesn't have much upside. There simply isn't anywhere for him to go up based on where he's ranked.
- This also is helpful early or late in the draft when you're thinking about "safe" and "risky" picks. In round one, you may prefer a player with less downside. In the later rounds, you're much more likely to "take a chance" or risk with a player that may be lower in the ranks, but has a bigger upside.
Reminder: Early Game Sunday!
Don't forget about the London Game this week. It's a 9:30 AM ET kickoff Sunday morning for Atlanta and Jacksonville so make sure you have your rosters ready early.