It's amazing how quickly the middle of the NFL season passes each year. It seems like I was just putting the finishing touches on the final draft of the preseason positional tiers articles a few weeks ago. But it's Week 14 and, for most of you, the playoff phase of the fantasy season has begun.
Though I've taken a different approach to this column this year with the team-by-team capsules, I was reminded by a handful of loyal, long-time readers this week that a couple of annual features have been neglected as a result. So, this week, I'm setting aside the team-by-team format to bring back some old school RTD flavor with a matchup data dump for those in the playoffs and a quick look at some long term stash candidates for those planning for 2014.
If you're looking for team-by-team notes, I'll have some of the most critical news blurbs at the end of the column. Be sure to read the Sunday notes for additional team information.
And I haven't forgotten about the tiers. I haven't been able to find the time to give them the attention I think they deserve. Over the next three weeks, however, that will change and I'll put together a position-by-position reckoning to lead into offseason discussions.
matchup data
It's not foolproof, but I'll take an extra hard look at the numbers if I have a close lineup decision in a playoff week or consider myself a heavy underdog in a playoff matchup and am looking to shoot the moon in a lineup slot.
Using Larry Thomas' matchup sheet and Doug Drinen's IDP matchup analyzer, I'll key on the following data points:
- Offenses providing the most tackle opportunity, especially when it's rushing attempt driven
- Stat crew anomalies to take advantage of (or avoid) certain stat crews that award tackles in unusual amounts
- Offenses allowing the most pressure on their quarterbacks
- Recent trends, e.g. how many tackles inside linebackers have had against a given offense over the past month
Other things I may consider:
- Recent depth chart changes, including offensive line injuries
- Offensive scheme outliers, e.g. matching a strong nickel corner against a spread offense with a highly targeted slot receiver
You can do this yourself, of course, but leading into this year's playoff weeks, here's some of what I'm keying on this year. Remember, these are for razor thin decisions between upper tier talents or when looking for a free agent off the wire as a boom-bust option.
offenses to target for high tackle opportunity
These offenses are providing the best mix of tackle opportunity (top eight total opportunity and averaging 30+ rushing attempts per game)
- Denver
- Washington
- Buffalo
- Cincinnati
New England, Seattle, Carolina, Philadelphia, San Diego and New Orleans fulfilled one of the two criteria and were close on the other and also will generally provide above-average opportunity.
You'll want to consider avoiding Dallas and Jacksonville if you're looking for flyers. Both offenses are near the bottom in tackle opportunity provided and rushing attempts. The Giants, Colts, Rams, Falcons, Browns, Dolphins and Steelers are less favorable matchups, but their trends are weaker and less consistent.
stadium stat crews to target for inflated statistics (home team only)
These offenses are providing a much higher than average number of assists and close to an average number of solos.
- Buffalo (high assists and above average solos)
- Minnesota (high assists and above average solos)
- Cleveland
- Washington
- Indianapolis
- Atlanta
Other potentially favorable matchups for those who get points for total tackles or where an assisted tackle is worth the same as a solo tackle include New England, the New York Jets and Baltimore. Those three stadiums give their defenders a high number of assists, but a slightly below average number of solos.
You'll want to avoid Arizona, Kansas City, St. Louis, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Philadelphia or Miami defenders in a close decision if you're looking purely for a high total tackle count. Those stat crews award their home defenders very few assisted tackles.
Seattle defenders run up high assist counts at home, but usually at the expense of solo tackles. Depending on your system, that's either okay or a very risky scenario.
offensive lines allowing above average pass rush opportunity
These matchups should be targeted if you're in a balanced or sack-heavy scoring league and looking for a lesser talent who may have a chance at an unexpectedly productive (multi-sack) week.
- Miami
- Arizona
- New York Jets (target the LDE)
- Cleveland (target the LDE only)
- Jacksonville
- Oakland
- Indianapolis
- New York Giants (target the RDE)
- Philadelphia (target the LDE)
Generally, there are many more favorable matchups than unfavorable this year, but you'll want to consider avoiding rush defenders facing Detroit, Denver and San Diego and consider avoiding those facing Chicago, Cincinnati and Dallas.
future watch
Not all of these players will pan out, but this is the time of year to reset your watch lists. The majority of players on this list in previous years were never heard from again, but others have exploded within the following 6-18 months. Last year, we discussed Demario Davis, Audie Cole, Dontari Poe and Olivier Vernon. In previous years, Geno Atkins, Robert Quinn, Cameron Jordan, Willie Young, Justin Houston, NaVorro Bowman, Donald Butler, Bruce Carter and Kam Chancellor were put forward for debate as players who could hit a high ceiling.
You don't have to add anyone on this list, but you should familiarize yourself with the names. Dynasty owners may want to consider cutting a marginally useful player to stash a potential lottery ticket. Redraft owners should be familiar with these names as depth charts change through free agency, the draft and OTAs in the months to come.
I'm going to loosely split them up according to league size and by position. I'll list names only for now, then provide more context in the tier features over the next three weeks.
Defensive Tackle
- Sylvester Williams (DEN) -- Intermediate Leagues (15-25 DT rostered)
Defensive Line
- Ezekiel Ansah (DET) -- Shallow Leagues (Less than 20 DE rostered)
- Dion Jordan (MIA) -- Shallow Leagues (Less than 20 DE rostered)
- Devin Taylor (DET) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-35 DE rostered)
- Damontre Moore (NYG) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-35 DE rostered)
- Margus Hunt (CIN) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Tank Carradine (SF) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Allen Bailey (KC) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Quanterus Smith (DEN) -- Deep Leagues (35+ DE rostered)
- Datone Jones (GB) -- Watch List
- Lavar Edwards (TEN) -- Watch List
- Vinny Curry (PHI) -- Watch List
- Cornelius Washington (CHI) -- Watch List
- Malliciah Goodman (ATL) -- Watch List
- Michael Buchanan (NE) -- Watch List
Inside Linebacker | 4-3 Outside Linebacker
- Arthur Brown (BAL) -- Shallow Leagues (Less than 20 LB rostered)
- Sio Moore (OAK) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-50 LB rostered)
- Manti Te'o (SD) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-50 LB rostered)
- DeVonte Holloman (DAL) --Deep Leagues (50+ LB rostered)
- Kevin Minter (ARI) -- Deep Leagues (50+ LB rostered)
- Emmanuel Lamur (CIN) -- Watch List
- Khaseem Greene (CHI) -- Watch List
- LaRoy Reynolds (JAC) -- Watch List
- Jamari Lattimore (GB) -- Watch List
- Jelani Jenkins (MIA) -- Watch List
- Keenan Robinson (WAS) -- Watch List
- Michael Mauti (MIN) -- Watch List
- Vince Williams (PIT) -- Watch List
- Kevin Reddick (NO) -- Watch List
- Nico Johnson (KC) -- Watch List
- Ty Powell (BUF) -- Watch List
Rush Outside Linebacker | Sack-Heavy Leagues
- Brandon Graham (PHI) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-50 LB rostered)
- Melvin Ingram III (SD) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-50 LB rostered)
- Corey Lemonier (SF) -- Deep Leagues (50+ LB rostered)
- Jarvis Jones (PIT) -- Deep Leagues (50+ LB rostered)
- Jamie Collins (NE) -- Deep Leagues (50+ LB rostered)
- Alex Okafor (ARI) -- Watch List
- Trevardo Williams (HOU) -- Watch List
- Brandon Jenkins (WAS) -- Watch List
CB2 Candidates | Deep Leagues (>25 CB rostered)
- D.J. Hayden (OAK)
- Morris Claiborne (DAL)
- Casey Hayward (GB)
- Xavier Rhodes (MIN)
- Leon McFadden (CLE)
Safety
- D.J. Swearinger Sr (HOU) -- Intermediate Leagues (20-30 safeties rostered)
- Shamarko Thomas (PIT) -- Deep Leagues (30+ safeties rostered)
- Shawn Williams (CIN) -- Watch List
- Phillip Thomas (WAS) -- Watch List
Stunts
Ezekiel Ansah continues to look good. Be mindful that Ansah's two sacks came on a rotational snap count against a second consecutive strong matchup. This week's road matchup in Philadelphia is not as favorable. But the Week 16 home game against the Giants could pay huge dividends.
Charles Johnson should be back this week. The matchup isn't particularly favorable, but if Johnson fully practices on consecutive days and the New Orleans is without offensive tackle Zach Strief, both Johnson and Greg Hardy could be borderline DL1 plays against the Saints.
Zach Brown played every down for Tennessee last week. I'm not certain how likely that continues. Michael Griffin was on suspension last week, thrusting George Wilson into a full time safety role. But Wilson has been used marginally in some matchups in subpackages with Griffin active recently and Brown wasn't an every-down player. Against Denver, it's impossible to trust Brown unless we hear something specific about his role from the Tennessee coaches. But if Brown is still an every-down player against this matchup, he could be a strong late season LB2 add.
Pat Angerer didn't start last week, but played the majority of snaps over Kelvin Sheppard. There's not likely to be any clarity here soon, so the only Indianapolis linebackers you should trust are Jerrell Freeman and Robert Mathis in a playoff matchup.
I preached patience on Daryl Washington last week and he responded with eight solos and should have been awarded a sack. That's a great sign as he enters a stretch of strong playoff matchups. Cameron Wake had another good week but didn't cash in on any of his pressures against the Jets, but he could breakout with a nice week against Pittsburgh.
You may have noticed Brandon Graham's name on the watch list above. A veteran like Graham should stand out like a sore thumb there. Though he's signed relatively cheaply for 2014, he's never been in the plans this year. If he's not released, he'll be in a contract year. Either way, if he finds himself in more snaps or in a better scheme, we know he'll be productive. Last week, Graham had two sacks in just 13 snaps against Arizona. Free Brandon Graham!!
The Saints look like they've decided to use a 3-3-5 front frequently, with all three safeties playing lots of snaps. Roman Harper, Parys Haralson and Ramon Humber are all getting looks depending on the package played. Harper's snap count will be the most sensitive of the safeties, so be careful before trusting him in run-heavy matchups.
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.
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