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WHY TIERS?
Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by staffer comments in recent seasons, but it's hard to see context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's important to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.
That's where tiers are helpful.
Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.
These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts). I have included a separate dynasty stash tier and discussion at the end of each positional article.
I've added a new column to the tables to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (June 1). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance.
In this post-minicamp set of tier articles, I'm also adding an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on July 5) will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings and ADP data from recent drafts at MFL. If a player does not have an ADP in his column, it means he wasn't ranked in the top 60 in at least two of the three consensus rank lists.
THE BIG PICTURE
Ten years ago, the defensive back position used to be one of my favorite areas to rank. Offenses were straightforward, base defenses were stable and teams rarely platooned players. If you had a working knowledge of the coverages a team preferred to run and the skill sets of their secondary, you could make smart, consistent bets on which players were likely to see the most statistical opportunity.
Unfortunately, the league isn't simple anymore.
83 cornerbacks and 64 safeties -- 147 defensive backs -- played at least 500 snaps in 2012 according to ProFootballFocus. That number increased again in 2013, with 88 corners and 73 safeties (161 defensive backs) seeing 500 or more snaps. That's an average of more than five players per team seeing at least half of their defense's available snaps.
The defensive line and linebacker groups have significantly fewer players reach that plateau, with around 100 players each.
Not all of those snaps are created equally. Game situation, down and distance, personnel and surrounding cast have much more to do with the fantasy upside of any given snap then ever before. Free safeties moving to the slot, strong safeties moving to linebacker and non-starters moving into a key tackling role on subpackage downs are becoming more and more common. It's become very difficult to project yearly and weekly tackle numbers for defensive backs.
And that's changed my roster philosophy for defensive backs over the past 3-5 seasons. I now believe that there are two main tiers for DB-inclusive leagues. The first tier includes the players I believe have Elite DB1 potential -- 80+ solo tackles or 60+ solos with elite peripheral coverage stat (FF/INT/PD) upside. The second tier includes everyone else.
It's also important to have a short memory. If an "Elite DB" isn't performing as such, move on. It's okay for your defensive back roster spots to remain fluid all season long.
I'll still be lumping and splitting players into more than two tiers in this feature. But realize that every single defensive back that could see 40 or more snaps in a given week belongs somewhere in the matchup cloud. You're probably thinking, "Come on, Bramel. That's almost 200 players." Yup. Get used to it. Nickel and dime corners and hybrid nickel safeties may hold just as much value as a starter.
Scouting IDPs is as much about scouting opportunity as talent. The paradigm has changed. We've adapted to front seven rotations and nickel linebacker specialists in recent seasons. It's time to do the same here.
SAFETY TIERS
I think it's worth separating the safety and cornerback tiers. They're two different animals. Some safeties derive the bulk of their value from playing in coverage, but most are going to live and die in fantasy lineups on the strength of their tackle efficiency against the run. I consider peripheral stats -- forced fumbles, interceptions, sacks and passes defensed -- but there's more variance in those numbers for most safeties. I build the framework of the safety tiers from tackle expectation.
TIER 1 - ELITE SAFETY
This tier should be deep this year. More spread offenses mean fewer linebackers on the field to compete for tackles and more secondary opportunity. Though the in-the-box strong safety isn't back in vogue, the glory days when fantasy owners had multiple 80-100 solo tackle safeties to choose among have returned.
| Eric Weddle | <> | DB3 | Rock steady DB1, competition for tackles remains weak |
| Jonathan Cyprien | <> | DB7 | Strong rookie debut, high tackle opportunity again in 2014 |
| Harrison Smith | <> | DB1 | 46 solos in eight games last season, MIN linebacker group still weak |
| Kenny Vaccaro | <> | DB11 | Recovered and running with starters in OTAs, all-around stud w/ overall DB1 upside |
| Barry Church | <> | DB2 | May not repeat 105 solos but could come close w/ Dallas linebacker mess |
| Reshad Jones | <> | DB14 | Consistent tackle production, MIA linebackers could struggle with range |
| Antrel Rolle | <> | DB12 | Great opportunity with around the box base snaps and subpackage slot corner duty |
| Mark Barron | <> | DB8 | Made push toward 80 solos (16 game projection) last year, still improving |
TIER 2 - ELITE SAFETY UPSIDE | HIGH FLOOR DB2
There isn't much difference between the end of the top tier and the beginning of this second tier of safeties. This tier, as it did last year, could morph into a Tier 1A by mid-August. If it does, the upper ranks will look deeper than they've been since I started doing these tier features a few years ago.
| Bernard Pollard | <> | DB10 | Good fit for Horton scheme, should see bump in big play numbers |
| T.J. Ward | <> | DB6 | Should see strong opportunity with DEN linebacker group in transition |
| Earl Thomas | <> | DB9 | One of best tackling centerfielding safeties in NFL, big play numbers boost overall value |
| Eric Berry | <> | DB4 | Still hasn't taken advantage of hybrid nickel LB role but high floor value with upside |
| Stevie Brown | <> | DB22 | Healthy, running with starters in OTAs with no depth chart competition |
| Roman Harper | <> | DB28 | Just outside elite tier, too much tackle compeition from Kuechly and Davis |
| Tyvon Branch | <> | DB13 | Recovered and back in prime role but competition for tackles is higher than ever |
| Antoine Bethea | <> | DB24 | With Bowman out, likely to see enough opportunity to top 70 solos |
| Kam Chancellor | <> | DB16 | Competition for tackles everywhere and assist-happy stat crew hurts upside |
| Donte Whitner | ^^^^ | DB19 | Home stat crew to bump assist counts, could be elite tier safety |
| Morgan Burnett | <> | DB5 | OTA depth chart suggests he'll play SS full time, has added big play value |
| William Moore | <> | DB20 | High floor mix of tackles and big plays but questionable ceiling |
| Deone Bucannon | <> | DB37 | Could top 80 solos as rookie with Washington suspended and Mathieu status unknown |
TIER 3 - WEEKLY STARTERS WITH UPSIDE
This year's group of safety prospects is so strong that I've added another tier to separate those players I like enough to roster now from those that will likely have starting fantasy value in three DB leagues but are only matchup cloud options for me.
| Tyrann Mathieu | <> | DB15 | Elite tier fantasy option if healthy, may start season on PUP |
| Calvin Pryor | <> | DB26 | Prime spot for production in aggressive NYJ scheme |
| Ryan Clark | <> | DB46 | Play slipped last year, weak WAS linebackers could leave good opportunity |
| D.J. Swearinger Sr | <> | DB29 | Talent is there, opportunity for big tackles behind Cushing and Reed |
| Brock Vereen | ^^^^ | DB52 | Looking more likely to start at safety immediately after strong OTA performance |
| Mike Mitchell | <> | DB40 | Timmons and Shazier rangy enough to limit ceiling, should be high floor play |
| Matt Elam | <> | DB21 | Will improve this year, but competition for tackles limits ceiling |
TIER 4 - MATCHUP SAFETY CLOUD
Extend this tier to the nth degree if you like, especially in deeper leagues. This group consists of the players most likely to move up into a clearly rosterable tier by the end of the preseason.
| Malcolm Jenkins | <> | DB42 | Role in PHI won't be much different, every-week play if tackle numbers there |
| Charles Woodson | <> | DB36 | Unlikely to repeat tackle numbers this year given return of Branch and improved front seven |
| LaRon Landry | <> | DB25 | Durability questions abound, more competition for tackles this season |
| James Ihedigbo | <> | DB45 | Fundamental linebacker group could hurt ceiling, but strong weekly floor |
| Troy Polamalu | <> | DB47 | No longer has range to ensure big plays, better athletes in back seven limit tackles |
| Jairus Byrd | <> | DB18 | Role in NO great for big play safety, high variance DB2 option |
| Aaron Williams | ^^^^ | DB27 | Looks locked in at free safety, above-average tackler for coverage safety |
| Devin McCourty | <> | DB56 | If big play numbers down, will quickly drop out of matchup cloud |
| Eric Reid | <> | DB31 | Too much competition for tackles, but may have DB3 floor with some upside |
| Michael Griffin | <> | DB75 | 60 solos and always respectable peripherals keep him in consideration here |
| Duron Harmon | <> | DB53 | Will be SS, could move ahead of McCourty for NE DB value |
| Da'Norris Searcy | ^^^^ | DB35 | Could see more opportunity with Alonso out for season |
DYNASTY STASH
These five players are talented enough or in a strong enough situation for the future to strongly consider rostering in dynasty leagues now. Clinton-Dix should be rostered in all dynasty league where 25 or more safeties are rostered. The others should be monitored closely in all but the deepest of leagues.
| Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | <> | DB44 | Should be matchup cloud worthy long term, was third safety in OTAs |
| Lamarcus Joyner | <> | Could start at SS in STL immediately, upside limited behind Laurinaitis and Ogletree | |
| Shamarko Thomas | <> | DB68 | Steelers signed Mitchell, but long term value still there |
| Terrence Brooks | <> | Should move into starting role alongside Elam soon | |
| Jimmie Ward | <> | To play slot corner this year, safety may still be his long term position |
CORNERBACK TIERS
Historically, you could do well at cornerback by grabbing the most physical players or trolling for Tampa-2 starters. That's not the case any longer.
What I tend to favor now is:
- A physical corner who will shed blocks and defend the run.
- A confident corner with good ball skills.
- A versatile corner who plays outside, then slides into the slot in subpackages.
- A decent corner playing opposite a stud cover corner.
- A corner who plays more zone coverage than man coverage.
- A corner for a team likely to see above-average passing attempts.
- A corner playing for a team likely to see high tackle opportunity with weak front seven tacklers.
The more criteria a player fits, the more attractive they are to me. For example, Charles Tillman arguably fits lines 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7. Justin Gilbert should fit 1, 2, and possibly 4 and 7. It's not always predictive. There will be players who finish in the top five who do not fit the criteria well. Minimal investment, a short memory, trend analysis and some film study will help you navigate the week-to-week variance here.
HIGH FLOOR CB1
If you look at this shallow list of three and think that you aren't comfortable investing or trusting in any of them, I'm right with you. I've nearly deleted this tier in both tier installments thus far. There will undoubtedly be corners who top 70 solos and/or 20 passes defensed, but I think this will be a season to start by streaming corner until you have one putting up consistently strong numbers.
| Jason McCourty | <> | DB43 | Tackle numbers dropped last year, could rebound if TEN offense improves |
| Charles Tillman | <> | DB23 | Durability may be issue, should be productive when healthy |
| Prince Amukamara | <> | DB30 | Broke out with 70 solos last year, secondary sees more chances due to LB inconsistency |
BEST CB MATCHUP CLOUD BETS
I listed 45 players on my initial spreadsheet of those cornerbacks I felt could have rosterable value early in the season. These 12 made the cut as best bets. There's no reason to panic here. Checking matchups and moving quickly on early season breakouts will serve you better than filling your roster with three unknowns before opening weekend. You should be using those spots to stash upside linebackers and defensive ends whose situations could break big in training camp.
| Tramon Williams | ^^^^ | DB34 | Will start, in contract season, strong run defender with elite coverage upside |
| Jason Verrett | <> | DB63 | Rehab progress could have him ready for camp, more competition with Flowers signing |
| Justin Gilbert | <> | DB57 | Projected to start opposite Haden, possible perfect storm of talent and opporutnity |
| Bradley Fletcher | <> | DB66 | Numbers there last year, has always fit profile of strong fantasy corner |
| Lardarius Webb | ^^^^ | DB38 | 63 solos and 23 passes defensed last year, strong run defender |
| Chris Harris | <> | DB86 | ACL recovery going well, if he's ready for camp, he'll be CB2+ value |
| Alterraun Verner | <> | DB33 | Competition for tackles goes up in Tampa, but favorable skill set for fantasy points |
| Desmond Trufant | <> | DB65 | Could benefit from move to 3-4 if pass rush improves |
| DeAngelo Hall | <> | DB17 | Old reliable dropping off some but mix of tackles and big play always strong |
| Stephon Gilmore | <> | DB79 | Still thinks he projects to good fantasy combo of physical run defense and coverage |
| Richard Sherman | <> | DB49 | High variance play with big play upside |
| Janoris Jenkins | <> | DB51 | Could be next DeAngelo Hall ~ gambler who still puts up consistent fantasy numbers |
DYNASTY STASH
If your rosters are deep enough to allow a third or fourth cornerback, consider stashing one of these five players. Their time could come sooner than later. There are many other young corners to watch. For a full list of rookies I'm watching closely, see my combined draft board feature.
| Kyle Fuller | <> | DB91 | Behind Tillman and Jennings for now, compares favorably to successful fantasy corners |
| Bradley Roby | <> | DB76 | May not start immediately, will eventually play opposite Talib and be targeted often |
| Darqueze Dennard | <> | DB89 | Physical talent who may prove to be every-week fantasy option soon |
| D.J. Hayden | <> | Big and physical with good ball skills, still having durability problems | |
| Stanley Jean-Baptiste | <> | Needs to improve technique, good fit for NO scheme if he works out |
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.
