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This week we discuss the following:
- Giving Thanks
- Benny Cunningham
- Nate Burleson
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Patriots running backs
- Carson Palmer against the Eagles
- Week 13 Previews
- Call your shot!
Giving Thanks
We all have a lot to be thankful for this season, but let's focus specifically on the NFL for a minute. What are some things that people in various NFL cities should be thankful for?
Ryan Hester: Since I'm a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I will name two things that people in Pittsburgh should be thankful for. First, the Steelers should be thankful for a schedule stretch of Buffalo, Detroit, and Cleveland after getting drubbed at New England in Week nine. Detroit, the toughest matchup of the three, completely changed its game plan at halftime and, for whatever reason, stopped throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson (zero catches after halftime).
Second, Todd Haley should be thankful for Ben Roethlisberger's mastery of the no-huddle offense. The team has opened a couple of games recently using it, and it seems to put defenses on their heels for long periods of the game—even when Pittsburgh discontinues its use.
On a personal level, I'm thankful to be involved in the fantasy football industry. Simply being a player would be enough, but being a part of the Footballguys family is amazing (and having clinched my division and a first-round bye in the Staff Team Defense Dynasty League isn't bad either).
Best and most of all, I'm thankful that my wife and I are halfway through our journey that will end in us welcoming a baby boy to the world in April, 2014.
Happy Thanksgiving. It's my favorite holiday.
Adam Harstad: Honestly, as much as everyone likes to make jokes about it, I think Denver should thank the faulty fax machine that cost them Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil is a great player, and he's been huge for Baltimore's defense, but Shaun Phillips has been a strong fill-in for the Broncos, and I think they're going to be glad to have the extra salary cap space on the books when it comes time to hand out extensions to the 16 current starters who are scheduled to hit free agency in the next two years (including Von Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wesley Woodyard, Chris Harris, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, among others).
On the topic of Denver, I think every fan of that franchise should wake up every morning thankful for Pat Bowlen and John Elway. It's still hard to comprehend that two and a half years ago, Denver was drafting second overall and licking its wounds from the Josh McDaniels era after missing the playoffs for a fifth consecutive season. I know that John Elway never actually owned the record for 4th-quarter comebacks (Dan Marino had more during their careers, and Peyton Manning has since passed them both), but this recent turnaround shows he's still the Comeback King.
I'm incredibly thankful for the players who suit up every week and play for our entertainment, especially the guys at the end of the roster—the swing tackles, the guys on the punt coverage team, the fifth receivers, the long-snappers, the rotation DTs. I know they are fabulously compensated for their time and their effort, but they work in a crappy, demanding job that puts them at great physical risk and asks them to tolerate situations that most of us would find abhorrent in our professional lives. They do it without anything resembling job security, knowing one bad game or one minor injury could easily spell the end of their career. They remain largely anonymous, unless they screw something up badly enough to become infamous. And yet, without them, the game that I love and spend so much of my time following wouldn't be possible.
Greg Russell: While I do not have any particular ties to St. Louis, I think the fans there have a few things to be thankful for. For one thing, they have a coach in Jeff Fisher that is on his way to turning the Rams franchise around. I do believe Fisher is sometimes regarded as better than he actually is, but that does not mean that he is at least a solid, above-average coach. It finally looks as if Tavon Austin may live up to his draft position, and Zac Stacy looks to have been a steal with a late fifth round pick.
Speaking of the draft, there is another thing for Rams fans to be thankful for. They can send along a big thank you to Washington for playing so poorly in a year where the Rams own Washington's first-round pick from the trade for Robert Griffin III III. With the excellent quarterback draft class this year, the Rams should have the option to land a high level prospect if they choose to move on from Bradford.
Enough about St. Louis. Now something I am thankful for myself. I am thankful that I am just picking teams against the spread for Jeff Pasquino's articles, and not actually betting my own money. The way this year has gone it would be a lean Christmas around the Russell household otherwise.
Kyle Wachtel: Jim Irsay should be thankful of all the successes that Peyton Manning brought to his team and the still very promising outlook of Andrew Luck, even with Luck's recent struggles. Instead, Irsay continues to be a pompous, maniacal, and unprofessional owner by belittling Manning's storied storied career with the Colts' franchise and publicly calling out his team on their performance.
"I didn't break the bank,millions cash over cap/Load Brinks Truck,only to be hijacked n stormed on the way two stadium by machine gun MANIACS!"—Jim Irsay on Twitter
Seriously? Ownership of the Colts was handed down to him from his father. He's assuredly profiting in the millions each season and has been blessed with two of the best quarterback prospects of all-time. One of which led the Colts to an unmatched era of success, including a Super Bowl, even with an organization that failed to surround him much talent during those seasons.
On a happier note, I'm thankful for Chip Kelly's arrival in the NFL. Over and over again we hear that the "college offenses" won't translate to the NFL. Then a few years later we begin to see NFL teams adapting those "college offenses" and find success with them. The up-tempo offenses won't be fading away any time soon and the increased amount of plays will lead to more yardage and scoring. We're currently seeing record totals year after year in those categories and this year is on pace for another record. It's time to expand those starting fantasy lineups and put all these extra fantasy points to use.
Jeff Haseley: Carolina should be thankful for their new GM Dave Gettleman, but also former GM Marty Hurney.
New GM Dave Gettleman made the decision to draft "hog mollies" Star Lutulelei and Kawann Short in the 2013 NFL draft. Their presence has been monumental in making the Panthers' front seven a dominant force this year. Gettleman also took a less than stellar salary cap situation and pieced together several areas of need without breaking the bank. Such players include CB Drayton Florence, OT Travelle Wharton, FS Mike Mitchell, SS Quintin Mikell, among others. Gettleman also had enough faith in Head Coach Ron Rivera and his staff to retain them after a disappointing 2012 season that was supposed to be filled with promise. Carolina's success this year would not have happened without the decision making and talent finding of Gettleman.
We also can't forget about the man who built the core of this team, former GM Marty Hurney. Hurney was instrumental in deciding to give linebacker Thomas Davis another chance, after rehabbing from his third ACL tear in two and a half years. He saw something special in Davis and gave him a contract extension as opposed to letting him walk. The decision to keep Davis was the correct answer, as he is one of the best outside linebackers in the league. His ability to stop the run, rush the passer and drop back into coverage is a rare find among linebackers. Not many linebackers in the league are capable making those plays to the degree that he can. The fact that he is the player he is and that he has come all the way back from three ACL tears is a remarkable feat.
Hurney is also responsible for making the decision to draft back to back rookie of the year winners, Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly. He found local product from South Carolina, Greg Hardy in the sixth round and also made the decision to extend contracts to several core players, namely DeAngelo Williams and Charles Johnson. Many people were puzzled by the decision to sign multiple players returning from a 2-14, 2010 season, but Hurney had a vision. When the team started losing after Cam Newton arrived, people pointed fingers at Hurney for hiring Ron Rivera. A change was needed in the front office and Hurney was let go. His hard work, vision and decision making definitely look a little more in his favor now. The pieces are coming together for Carolina this year and much of the hard work is a direct result of the efforts of both General Managers past and present.
Will Grant: Add Ron Rivera to that mix of thankful folks in Carolina, Jeff. He is most certainly thankful that he still has a job. When the Panthers came off of their early bye week and were beaten badly by Arizona in week five. After two disappointing seasons and a 1-3 start to the season, Rivera became one of the first coaches that people began to talk about as a candidate to be fired before the end of the season. Maybe some of it was self-inflicted by his conservative play calling, but Rivera has certainly turned it around and the Panthers are a legitimate playoff team.
As much as Chicago Bears fans will hate to admit it, they should be thankful for GM Phil Emery and new head coach Marc Trestman. Emery and Trestman have completely turned around the Chicago offense, bringing in key players like Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett and Alshon Jeffery, and installed a passing game to get them the ball. After years of empty promises by the previous front offense, Emery and Trestman completely re-tooled the Chicago offensive line, and the fact that the Bears have started two rookies on the left side since day one shows just how bad the line was before this season. Despite a 10-6 season under Lovie Smith in 2012, Emery didn't hesitate to pull the trigger, realizing that his team was never going to take a step forward with Lovie at the helm. Their record may not reflect it this season, and Chicago may not even hit 10 wins again this year, but the Bears are taking steps to prepare for the future, even if they have to take a step back to rebuild.
It goes without saying that Kansas City should be turning cartwheels this week giving thanks for Andy Reid. The Chiefs have won nine games this season after winning just nine games in 2011 and 2012 combined. And they're doing it with a couple of cast-offs like Alex Smith and Donnie Avery. I doubt that anyone could have predicted that the Chiefs would have this type of season and Andy Reid clearly has a lot to do with it.
Benny Cunningham
Where do you rank Benny Cunningham this week if Zac Stacy is out?
Ryan Hester: Cunningham isn't as skilled as Stacy, and San Francisco's defense is far from a pushover. Cunningham would be somewhere in the RB16-20 range.
Adam Harstad: I'd consider Cunningham a desperation RB2 if he got the starting nod. I think he'd have to split carries more than Stacy has, I think he's less talented than Stacy is, and I think San Francisco's defense is pretty phenomenal. Still, guys who are going to get touches will always have value, and if Stacy's out, Cunningham will certainly get some touches. I'd rank him somewhere in the RB24-RB30 range.
Jeff Haseley: I don't love the matchup against San Francisco, but Adam hit the nail on the head, saying he'll still have value because he should get plenty of carries if given the starting nod. The Rams have been all about the running game lately and they've had good success with it. I would put Cunningham as a low-end RB2 if he gets the start. He's not someone that people should expect a lot from. The chances of him having a big game against San Francisco are pretty low. If it were me, I'd look elsewhere.
Kyle Wachtel: Like Harstad mentioned, the San Francisco defense puts a cap on his value for this week. You have to respect touches though and he would merit enough of them to teeter on the RB2-RB3 border, which makes him at least a Flex play.
Will Grant: Performance against Chicago's last-place run defense with a big lead shouldn't get people excited about Benny Cunningham. The Bears are giving up 170+ yards a game on the ground over the last four weeks, and they were already winning by 10 at the half. As others have pointed out, the 49ers won't be so generous and you can expect Cunningham to fall back to earth this week.
Nate Burleson
What kind of fantasy value does Nate Burleson have in redraft leagues, and what effect will he have on Calvin Johnson's production?
Ryan Hester: Burleson is a WR4 in standard leagues and a WR3 in PPR leagues. His presence shouldn't cut into Calvin Johnson's production very much. Despite his touchdown last week, Burleson isn't a top priority in the red zone for a team with huge targets like Johnson, Joseph Fauria, Brandon Pettigrew, and Kris Durham.
Adam Harstad: The most surprising thing about Detroit's passing offense this year is that they "only" rank second in passing attempts, after dominating the league in that category in each of the last two seasons. It's unusual for a team that throws as often and as effectively as the Lions to have only a single fantasy-viable receiver, but so far, that's what Detroit has done (which explains to some extent why Calvin's numbers are as ridiculous as they are). Honestly, I don't think Nate Burleson is the kind of guy who eats into Calvin's numbers in a meaningful way. Maybe they come back a little bit closer to reality; maybe Calvin "only" averages 100 yards per game going forward, compared to the 120 yards he's getting now. Either way, Calvin is the clear-cut number one fantasy receiver, Burleson or no. As for Burleson himself, there's plenty of targets in that offense, and Burleson is good enough that I think he's a very strong fantasy WR3 the rest of the way.
Jeff Haseley: The fact that he was thrust into a role that paid dividends in his return game last week suggests that he'll be a big part of the offense going forward. He's on a high-scoring offense with one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league in Matthew Stafford. There's value there simply for occupying a WR position with the Lions. When you consider his pedigree and veteran experience, he should see plenty of action going forward. He's a weekly starter in my opinion. I still think Calvin Johnson will continue to be a force, but he may not have as many 150+ yard games. It shouldn't affect his standing as the league's best fantasy wide receiver.
Kyle Wachtel: Burleson should be owned in all redraft leagues. He's played four games this season and his reception totals in those games are 6-7-6-7. He won't have any effect on Johnson, who will put his incredible numbers regardless of which receivers take the field with him, but Burleson is a WR3 in standard leagues with a boost in PPR formats. He's a consistent glue guy that you should be able to rely on for solid production each week.
Will Grant: Burleson wasn't setting the world on fire before he put his pizza ahead of his football career, but the Lions are more than happy to have him back on offense. We've heard that Detroit is looking for someone to fill in opposite Calvin Johnson for several years now, and sadly, Burleson is probably the best option that the Lions have outside of Reggie Bush. I don't see Burleson as anything more than a WR3 or WR4 in most redraft leagues, maybe a high WR3 if you're in a PPR league. Calvin Johnson will continue to put up high numbers week after week, and Burleson's production will only pull coverage away from Megatron, making him even more dangerous.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Is Ryan Fitzpatrick going to be an NFL starter in 2014?
Ryan Hester: What Fitzpatrick is doing is excellent, but NFL General Managers have seen this before. Between "blue bloods" like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, young players in the league who have become starters lately like Mike Glennon and Nick Foles, and those being drafted in 2014 like Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr, there probably won't be room for Fitzpatrick among the 32 starting positions. Most GMs would rather take a gamble on a young player developing than go with a "slow and steady" type like Fitzpatrick.
Adam Harstad: I'd guess probably not. If a team wanted him as a starter, they could have signed him this past offseason, but no one was interested. I don't think Fitzpatrick is playing well enough right now to convince everyone in the league that they were wrong about him. I think Fitzpatrick is just one of those journeyman quarterbacks who is either a very good backup or a very bad starter, sort of a modern-day Sage Rosenfels or Gus Frerotte. If a guy like Fitzpatrick is starting for a team, it usually means that something somewhere has gone terribly wrong.
Greg Russell: I agree with Adam. Another factor working against Fitzpatrick is the strength of the coming draft class in regards to quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick is a perfect backup for a younger quarterback. He could even be that guy who you start at the beginning of the season to give your rookie quarterback more time to develop, but who then most likely gives way to the rookie before the season is over.
Though it is worth mentioning Fitzpatrick probably will see some starts in 2014, if only because he's still under contract at an affordable contract to back up Jake Locker for another season. Locker has not been a paragon of durability so far.
Jeff Haseley: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very good, serviceable backup quarterback and that's exactly what he's doing. I don't see him turning enough heads to be considered a starting quarterback next year. He just doesn't have that pedigree of quarterback perfection that teams crave. I use the term perfection loosely. If I'm a General Manager, I'm aiming high when it comes to the quarterback position. I just don't see Fitzpatrick occupying that role.
Kyle Wachtel: Will he be signed as a starter? That's highly doubtful. However, Fitzpatrick will be highly coveted as a backup and should enjoy a long career as a backup, which may lead to intermittent runs as the starter by either filling in for the injured starter (like this season) or replacing a struggling quarterback as a fill-in option for the remainder of a season.
Will Grant: As Kyle mentioned, I don't see him being a starter week one. However, as we've seen in plenty of places like Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Oakland, teams are going to need a strong backup quarterback and Fitzpatrick is certainly as good as many of the guys who have started games this season such as Jason Campbell, Josh McCown, Kellen Clemons and Matt McGloin.
Patriots running backs
This is always such a tough situation to figure out. Bench Ridley? Start Vereen? What's Bolden's value?
Ryan Hester: Ridley is the most talented traditional running back on the team, but owners should be nervous about his immediate fantasy prospects. Vereen is an every-week starter, particularly in PPR leagues. Bolden has some flex value right now and could have more if Ridley remains in the doghouse full-time, but this is best left as a "wait-and-see" for anyone besides Vereen.
Adam Harstad: I think Ridley is too good to bench. He's one of the best between-the-tackles runners in the league. He's had some recent fumbles, but his career fumble rate isn't that crazy, either. And let's not forget that there wasn't really anybody who could hold on to the football in that cold weather Sunday night. When people buried him early in the season, he responded with a fantastic stretch. I think people who bury him again now are likely to learn that lesson the hard way again. I doubt very many teams are going to have 2-3 better options available than Ridley.
Vereen's a "take him or leave him" player in standard scoring, but an easy start in PPR. The touchdowns probably won't be there like they are with Ridley, but the yardage should be comparable, and Vereen is going to catch a ton of passes. In recent seasons, we've seen passing-down backs like Sproles, Woodhead, and Joique Bell become automatic starts in PPR leagues. I think Vereen very much fits that mold.
In fact, I see a lot in common between Ridley and Vereen in New England and the Ryan Mathews-Danny Woodhead duo in San Diego. Each player plays a different role in each duo, but there's easily room for both to be valuable, especially in PPR.
Greg Russell: For this week in particular I like Vereen's chances against the Texans. The Texans linebackers are weak in coverage without Brian Cushing, but the team is still generating enough of a pass rush that Brady may be looking for some shorter completions.
I agree with Adam that Ridley is probably still going to see significant touches. He's recovered from the fumbling doghouse before, and the conditions did lead to a number of such gaffs on both teams. I also seem to recall it being more of a solid hit right on the ball than it was being poor ball security on the part of Ridley.
Jeff Haseley: Right now, Shane Vereen is the only running back that New England can fully trust to take care of the ball and make the plays they ask him to. He has seven, eight and eight receptions in the three games he's played in this year. He is clearly a weapon who has shown he can do the job. If he can consistently find the end zone, he'd be a Top 10 running back every week. I do think Stevan Ridley will get more carries, but it's difficult to expect him to be a key piece of the offense. Until he is again, I'd bench him. Think of Brandon Bolden as the utility infielder who can play several roles, but usually not in a full time capacity. He could get a 1-yard touchdown plunge here and there, but his touches are not enough to consider him a fantasy option at this time.
Kyle Wachtel: Haseley pretty much nailed all of my thoughts on New England's running backs corps. Vereen is the clear cut option for me; he's the most dynamic and getting enough touches to rank as a weekly RB2 in standard, with an even larger impact in PPR leagues. I also would not be able to start Ridley with any semblance of confidence until Bill Belichick shows more confidence in him. As for Bolden, he's still the third option in the backfield and can be picked up as a wild card, but won't have any predictable value unless he manages to stabilize some sort of a role, which is unlikely with the Patriots.
Will Grant: I think that Vereen will put up the most fantasy points of the three between now and the end of the season. But Ridley will certainly see 30% of the carries and Bolden will also cut into that time a bit. I think both Vereen and Ridley are low RB2, high RB3 type of backs and Bolden is more of a desperation play as a fantasy back.
Carson Palmer against the Eagles
Where do you rank Carson Palmer among fantasy quarterbacks this week?
Ryan Hester: Palmer has been hot lately, and Philadelphia's defense hasn't shown much all year to make owners think his streak might slow down. However, with a bye week to prepare and factoring in Palmer's inconsistency throughout his career, he's still just a QB2 this week, falling somewhere in the QB16-20 range.
Adam Harstad: I know Palmer has been playing very well since the bye. I know that Fitzgerald, Floyd, Roberts, and Housler are actually a pretty strong collection of targets for him. I know that Philly's defense is poor, and the game will be played at a fast tempo, and Palmer should get a lot of plays. Despite all of this, I'd have a hard time trusting him this week. I think there are too many quarterbacks that offer a much higher upside. If anyone was going to start him, this would be the week to do so, but I think he's a fringe QB1 at the very best.
Jeff Haseley: The match up against Philadelphia is huge. The Eagles by far have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, which also means Carson Palmer should have a high degree of success as well. Palmer is already hot heading into this match up, passing for 700 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. I think you look at both sides of the coin here. Palmer is hot and the matchup is arguably the best one he'll have all season long. To me, that's enough to take a chance on him having an elite day.
Kyle Wachtel: If there was ever a week to trot Palmer out as your starter, this is it. Only Dallas has allowed more passing yards per game than Philadelphia's 315.64 yards. The game flow in this matchup should lead to plenty of passing attempts and plenty of yards as the Cardinals try to keep pace with the Eagles' offense. Larry Fitzgerald is getting healthier, Michael Floyd is hitting stride and Rob Housler is getting involved. All things considered, Palmer finds his way just inside the top-twelve quarterbacks this week.
Will Grant: The Arizona running game is pretty lousy and Palmer still has guys like Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd to catch the ball so as an NFL QB, Palmer should do about average. That being said, the Eagles have the league's worst passing defense, allowing almost 300 yards a game to their opponents. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, and they are playing at home, so that gives them at least a solid chance to improve on their performances before their break. I'd rank Palmer somewhere around the QB12-QB14 range, and there are certainly more than a few fantasy owners who would be better off starting Palmer than some of the backups that they have on their roster now.
Week 13 Previews
We've got a number of fun matchups this week. One that I'm looking forward to is the hot Philadelphia offense against the tough Arizona defense. Ryan, what can we expect in that matchup this week?
Ryan Hester: Yes, this one should be fun. Arizona enters eighth in the NFL in total defense, but if this team has a weakness, it's pass defense (they're second in rushing defense, and 17th against the pass).
Nick Foles has been a revelation in Chip Kelly's quick-decision offense. Between that and Kelly's emphasis on running the ball with read-option concepts, I expect Philadelphia to be able to move the ball and score points better than the typical offense facing a top-ten defensive unit.
Patrick Peterson has been very effective against top receivers, meaning it could be a difficult day for DeSean Jackson. Jackson's strength is getting behind the defense, but Peterson is an excellent athlete capable of striding with anyone. The rapport already shown between Foles and Riley Cooper could be on display once again on Sunday. Cooper could finish with a WR1 performance once again.
Tight ends Brent Celek and Zach Ertz also represent nice options for anyone struggling at the position. Arizona allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in half-PPR formats, and Philadelphia has used both of these players throughout Foles' time as a starter. Celek is the favorite to score more, but both players should have some impactful moments.
Chicago at Minnesota may be another fun matchup. Jeff, are the Bears going to be able to handle Adrian Peterson?
Jeff Haseley: I doubt it. Josh McCown has done an admirable job filling in for Jay Cutler, but the Bears defense has done a poor job of keeping games close. The run defense in particular has fallen apart with key injuries at linebacker. The loss of D.J. Williams and Lance Briggs has taken more of a toll than expected. The last five or six games, each opponent has been able to run wild on this team.
Enter Adrian Peterson.
I fully expect Minnesota to run their offense through Peterson this week, especially if Chicago continues to struggle with their run defense. The emergence of Cordarrelle Patterson seeing more playing time also opens up the passing game, even if just to keep the defense honest. The combination of Peterson and a semi-effective passing game could be exactly what Minnesota needs to sustain drives and consistently put points on the board.
In turn, are the Bears going to be able to run the ball against the Vikings?
Matt Forte (hyper-extended knee) could be limited and therefore not be as effective as he has in the past 11 games. From a fantasy perspective, if Minnesota gets a lead, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery should see plenty of targets as the Bears try to pass their way back into the game. The Vikings secondary is just weak enough to allow it to happen.
In the end, I see a 3-4 point win for the Vikings (27-24), but not before Chicago made a game out of it with a late comeback attempt. Adrian Peterson, Blair Walsh, Josh McCown, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are the big fantasy producers in this game.
Kyle, how will the Packers' offense fare in Detroit?
Kyle Wachtel: Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this week and the planets have aligned for a Matt Flynn to become a more than viable spot-starter. Only the New York Jets have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs this season than Detroit's 65.36 rushing yards per game. The Lions' 3.47 yards-per-carry allowed to opposing running backs also ranks among the top-five stingiest defenses. A tough run defense combined with the Lions' ability to score points (their 26.0 points-per-game ranks seventh best in the NFL), should force the Packers to continue relying on the passing game. Even in Rodgers' absence, they have averaged 43.7 passing attempts per game. Additionally, the Lions have allowed the sixth most passing yards (290.64 per game) and 11th most fantasy points (20.27 per game) to opposing passers. This should all benefit the Packers receivers as well, cementing Jordy Nelson as a strong WR2 and both, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin, as WR3s.
How about in the afternoon game? Will the Raiders be able to move the ball against the Cowboys, Will?
Will Grant: The Raiders are banged up on offense, and they will be without Denarius Moore at wide receiver. Darren McFadden returns to the lineup this week, but he will certainly be limited in his number of touches and Rashad Jennings has been playing very well lately. Terrelle Pryor is also available, but the Raiders will likely play Matt McGloin unless he completely implodes.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys have a league worst defense, marred by injuries and giving up a staggering 432 yards per game on defense. The Cowboys can't stop the run or the pass, and even the Raiders should have success against them this week. Expect the Cowboys to try to pressure McGloin with multiple blitz and pressure options, hoping for him to make a mistake before his receivers get open. The longer he has in the pocket, the more chances his receivers have to find the soft spots in the weak Dallas secondary. If the Oakland receivers get open, it could quickly turn into a shoot-out.
Call your shot!
Pick one player that you think will outperform most people's expectations this week.
Ryan Hester: I think Riley Cooper will be right on the fringe of WR1 production this week. He'll exceed most people's expectations because he's been exceeding them ever since Nick Foles entered the starting lineup. Many are still afraid to rely on Cooper for WR2 production with WR1 upside because they think his touchdown pace is unsustainable.
Even in a slow Week 11, Cooper had a catch that saw him get tackled inches shy of the goal line and draw a penalty on a would-have-been end zone target because he had beaten his defender.
Patrick Peterson will be going stride-for-stride with DeSean Jackson opposite Cooper, so expect Foles to continue to feed his second option.
Adam Harstad: I think Percy Harvin picks up this week right where he left off last season. Seattle traded a ton of draft value to acquire him and paid him $60 million to keep him happy. I think they have big plans for him. After a tune-up game in week 11 where Harvin showed little evidence of rust, Pete Carroll confirmed that everything went well and they were going to be removing all snap restrictions from Percy going forward. Seattle is going to have to score points to keep up with Brees and the Saints. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see a 20+ point afternoon from Harvin in PPR leagues.
Will Grant: Also, while it's hard to exceed the number one overall rank, Adrian Peterson is probably going to have his best game of the season. Chicago is ranked dead last in rushing yards per game allowed, are averaging close to 170 yards per game allowed over the last four games and if any more of their players are hurt on defense, they will be pulling people from the stands at half time to play in the third quarter. And don't let the cold weather conditions make you second guess this—Peterson put up 150 yards on the Packers last week under similar conditions. Peterson could put up 200 yards on the Bears this weekend.
Greg Russell: Though Houston's defense may be number one in both passing yards per game and total yards per game, this week could be shaping up for a big day for Tom Brady. Houston's offense is unable to sustain drives, and no one will be better than Bill Belichick at scheming to bring out the weaknesses of a rookie quarterback. All of this should lead to a lot of possessions for the Patriots against a Texans defense that has struggled with the pace that New England sets on offense. With the course the Texans season has gone, the crowd noise at Reliant Stadium is suffering. Throw in that the Texans defense is poor in the red zone and 26th in points allowed, and Brady may find the end zone multiple times.
Jeff Haseley: I'm going with Ace Sanders at Cleveland. Sanders has 12 receptions on 15 targets in the last two games and has emerged as the team's second receiver option after Cecil Shorts. The Browns have allowed 16 passing touchdowns in the last six games, most of which have been allowed by a corner not named Joe Haden. I fully expect Haden to cover Shorts, thus leaving Sanders to face the nickel corner or linebacker in coverage. Sanders has been compared to Tavon Austin, which I believe is fairly accurate. He is best when used out of the slot, but he's a weapon no matter how he gets the ball. Get him in open space and he can easily turn a short catch into a long gain. Jacksonville is starting to realize how well he can move the sticks. I can see him having another strong game this week and the match up further solidifies my thinking.
Kyle Wachtel: I'm going to be buying a lot C.J. Spiller stock this week. He's been a complete disappointment this season, but the entire Buffalo offense has to be salivating over the upcoming game versus Atlanta. The Bills are coming out of a Week 12 Bye and the Falcons have been gashed by opposing running backs to the tune of a 4.7 yards-per-carry. There's potential for a monster, fantasy winning week with Spiller, which is why he has found his way back into my top-15 running backs for the week and into plenty of my daily fantasy lineups.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.