Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
***TABLE 1***
Road Team:
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
MIA
|
DET
|
ARI
|
OAK
|
NE
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
PIT
|
TB
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
NO
|
GB
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
NO
|
GB
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
NE
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-0.5
|
-4.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
-8.5
|
-0.5
|
-2.5
|
-5.5
|
-13.5
|
-5.5
|
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
James Brimacombe
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
MIA
|
DET
|
LAR
|
OAK
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
44
|
11
|
19
|
Andy Hicks
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
OAK
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
SEA
|
41
|
10
|
20
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
KC
|
TB
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
IND
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
49
|
8
|
17
|
Justin Howe
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
44
|
8
|
17
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
44
|
7
|
17
|
Bear Heiser
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
KC
|
TB
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
WAS
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
48
|
7
|
17
|
Dave Larkin
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
TB
|
LAC
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
NE
|
DAL
|
SEA
|
46
|
7
|
16
|
Keith Roberts
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
TB
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
WAS
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
48
|
7
|
14
|
Matt Bitonti
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
61
|
7
|
14
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
45
|
6
|
16
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
IND
|
CLE
|
GB
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
NE
|
DAL
|
SEA
|
47
|
6
|
17
|
Phil Alexander
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
IND
|
NO
|
MIN
|
MIA
|
SF
|
ARI
|
OAK
|
NE
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
40
|
6
|
15
|
Andrew Garda
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
LAR
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
50
|
5
|
12
|
Jeff Haseley
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
KC
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
WAS
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
NE
|
DAL
|
SEA
|
41
|
5
|
17
|
Mark Wimer
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
NO
|
GB
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
35
|
5
|
16
|
William Grant
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
MIA
|
SF
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
46
|
5
|
14
|
Devin Knotts
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
MIA
|
SF
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
44
|
4
|
17
|
Sean Settle
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
KC
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
WAS
|
NO
|
MIN
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
NE
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
48
|
4
|
13
|
NFL Week 2 was far more difficult for the Footballguys' staff than Week 1. Only two staffers - James Brimacombe (11 correct) and Andy Hicks (10) were above 50% with their picks. Big losses by the Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Texans cost the group overall, as did slim victories by the 49ers and Broncos. The grand total for the Footballguys' Staff was just 118 correct picks out of 288, a weak 41% showing and virtually the exact opposite of Week 1. The staff now sits just under 50% (288-304, 48.6%) on the young season. Much work is left to be done to get over the Las Vegas house advantage of 52.3%.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
IND
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
|
Home Team:
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
WAS
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
DET
|
TB
|
|
Favorite:
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-16.5
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-5.5
|
-6.5
|
-1.5
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
|||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
CLE
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
54
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
50
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
CLE
|
SF
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
TB
|
56
|
Andrew Garda
|
CLE
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
55
|
Andy Hicks
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
ARI
|
DET
|
TB
|
59
|
Bear Heiser
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
64
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
WAS
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
DET
|
TB
|
49
|
Dave Larkin
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
53
|
James Brimacombe
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
DET
|
PIT
|
53
|
Jeff Haseley
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
WAS
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
TB
|
55
|
Justin Howe
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
DET
|
TB
|
55
|
Keith Roberts
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
58
|
Mark Wimer
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
DET
|
TB
|
77
|
Matt Bitonti
|
CLE
|
SF
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
55
|
Phil Alexander
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
61
|
Sean Settle
|
CLE
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
70
|
William Grant
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
DAL
|
ARI
|
NE
|
TB
|
53
|
Devin Knotts
|
CLE
|
SF
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
43
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 3 has our first unanimous pick for 2018 as all 18 of the staffers in the pool are going with Jacksonville to take care of business at home and beat the Titans by more than a touchdown. Green Bay is the second-most popular pick (16 of 18) as a road favorite in Washington by less than a field goal. Denver (14) is the most popular of five underdogs favored by the staff, with the Broncos heading to Baltimore and getting over five points of a head start. Philadelphia (13), Tampa Bay (13, home underdog) and New England (13) are also majority picks, but after that only two other teams (Minnesota, Seattle - both 12) had at least a two-thirds majority. The Chargers (at the Rams), Jets (at Cleveland) and Bengals (at Carolina) join Denver and Tampa Bay as underdogs the staff are on this week. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how NFL Week 3 plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
Only two weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com