Justin Fields: Overvaluing Rushing Upside

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Fields of Dreams, or Fields of Nightmares?

If there's one thing we could use less of in this industry, it's the tired trope of rushing quarterbacks being a “cheat code.” Yes, most of today's elite fantasy quarterbacks rack up big numbers on the ground, but that's only half the story. They're also highly efficient and productive passers. Calling them cheat codes oversimplifies just how skilled they are as quarterbacks.

Which brings us to the problem with Justin Fields' fantasy outlook. He's being drafted as a top-10 option, and it's easy to understand why. He's the clear starter for the New York Jets and one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks of the past decade. In a scoring system that heavily rewards rushing, Fields feels like a must-consider. But drafting him that high means you're paying for perfection while exposing yourself to considerable downside risk.

There are three major concerns:

1. He isn't a good passer
2. He takes an unsustainable number of sacks
3. He's a turnover machine

A Passer in Name Only

Justin Fields isn't an unfinished product, despite what you may hear from others within the industry. He's started 44 NFL games, which is a massive sample size. The chances that he's going to evolve into a significantly different quarterback are slim to none.

In that vein, let's acknowledge that Fields has been one of the NFL's least productive fantasy passers since entering the league in 2021. Fifty-five quarterbacks have started at least 10 games in that span, and Fields ranks 50th in fantasy passing points per game.

Table: Fantasy Passing Points per Game (2021-2024, Min 10 Starts)