The Myth of Geno Smith

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The Myth of Geno Smith

Let's be clear: the consensus isn't particularly high on Geno Smith. He currently sits at QB26 in our ADP consensus data, making him an afterthought outside of Superflex formats. Still, some analysts point to his low ADP as a value play and urge fantasy managers to invest, believing he'll outperform expectations. Even if you're not buying into that pocket of hype, he's still being drafted ahead of Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers. None of that makes sense.

Reunited and it Feels So Meh

Pete Carroll returned to the NFL this offseason, agreeing to take over the Las Vegas Raiders. Raiders fans are understandably optimistic, given how poorly the organization has been run in recent years and Carroll's long history of sustained success.

Pete Carroll's Resume:

• 18 seasons
• 170 wins
• 0.586 win percentage
• 11 playoff wins
• 2 NFC Championships
• 1 Super Bowl victory

One of Carroll's first moves was trading for his former starting quarterback, acquiring Smith in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick. On the surface, the deal makes sense—Carroll knows Smith's character and capabilities and trusts him to help reset the culture. But that logic falls apart when you remember Carroll isn't calling plays. He's a defensive-minded head coach, handing Smith off to Chip Kelly, who left Ohio State to become the Raiders' offensive coordinator.

34 Years Old with One Fantasy-Relevant Season

I'd love to hire Smith's PR team. They've built a reputation out of a remarkably thin résumé. We all love a good comeback story, which partly explains why Smith became a fan favorite after his surprise return in 2021. When he filled in for an injured Russell Wilson and played well, it helped Seattle feel comfortable trading Wilson to Denver and giving Smith the reins in 2022. And that season went better than anyone could've expected.

Geno Smith, 2022:

• 17 games
• 399 completions on 572 attempts
• 69.8% completion rate
• 4,282 yards
• 7.5 yards per attempt
• 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
• 366 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
• QB9 fantasy finish

Smith earned Comeback Player of the Year and was one of the best fantasy values of the season.

But that magic didn't last. While he remained the starter in 2023 and 2024, the results were far more pedestrian.

• 2023: QB24
• 2024: QB18

Let's recap his NFL career:

• 11 seasons
• 5 teams
• 83 starts
• 40 wins, 43 losses
• 1 top-12 fantasy season
• 2 low-end QB2 seasons

The Sam Darnold/Geno Smith ADP is Mystifying