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It's time to update my True Fantasy Points (TFP) math for the second time in 2018. If you're unfamiliar with how the TFP system works, here are the links to my preseason articles:

1. Quarterback TFP
2. Running back TFP
3. Wide receiver TFP
4. Week 5 Update

The Cliffs Notes version is that I calculate TFP by multiplying players' "true" efficiency stats by their opportunity, and then applying Footballguys' standard scoring system to the result:

1. For quarterbacks, my opportunity measure is pass attempts, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Attempt (YPA), Touchdowns per Attempt (TDPA), and Interceptions per Attempt (INTPA).
2. For running backs, my opportunity measures are carries (in the running game) and routes run (in the passing game), and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are Yards per Carry (YPC), Touchdowns per Carry (TDPC), Receptions per Route Run (RPRR), Yards per Route Run (YPRR), and Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR).
3. For wide receivers and tight ends, my opportunity measure is routes run, and the efficiency stats I turn into "true" stats are RPRR, YPRR, and TDPRR.

As an example, Julio Jones has amassed 60 catches for 933 yards and -- infamously -- 1 touchdown, over the course of 293 routes run this season. Converting these numbers into rate stats means his Actual YPRR is 3.2 and his Actual TDPRR of 0.3%. Based on about 3,600 actual routes run in his Falcons career, Jones' True YPRR is 2.6, and his True TDPRR is 1.2%, which means his 293 routes in 2018 should have produced 779 yards (i.e., 154 lower than his actual total) and 3.5 touchdowns (i.e., 2.5 higher than his actual total). If we apply Footballguys' standard scoring system to both sets of numbers, we find that he's actually scored 100.3 points, whereas his "true" skill suggests 99.8 points. One can interpret this 0.5 difference between actual scoring and "true" scoring as Jones producing fantasy points almost exactly on par with expectation.

In order to appear in the tables below, a player has to have a replacement value above 1.0 in our Top 200 Forward rankings (minus Le'Veon Bell). Columns correspond to per-game averages for standard fantasy points (i.e., "FBG"), TFP, and the difference between the two (i.e., DIFF).

Quarterbacks

Below is the table for quarterbacks:

Just to make sure it's abundantly clear how this works, let's look at Derek Carr as an example of how to a) understand TFP and b) read the table. Based on his actual stats of 2,198 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions passing, along with 41 yards and 1 touchdown rushing, Carr's scored 152.0 standard fantasy points (i.e., FBG) so far this season. Based on his "true" rates, his passing stats should be 1,904 yards, 12.7 touchdowns, and 6.4 interceptions, which translates to 149.6 TFP (after adding in those 10.1 rushing points, and with intentional rounding ). Converting these into per-game averages produces what you see in the table: 19.0 FBG per game vs. 18.7 TFP per game. This means he's averaging 0.3 points per game more than what you'd expect from his "true" skill.

Sell High: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick would have topped this list back in Week 5 if not for being benched the prior week. But now he's back in the starting role, so here we are. Fitzpatrick's YPA is currently 9.7, whereas his True YPA across 347 pass attempts with Tampa Bay is 7.8. This means his current passing yardage total (1,793) is 367 yards higher than what it should be (1,426). Even more unsustainable is Fitzpatrick's 9.2% TDPA, which dwarfs his 5.1% True TDPA. Multiplying these rates by 184 attempts in 2018 shows that he's thrown for nearly twice as many touchdowns as his "true" skill suggests (17 vs. 9.4).

Another omen for Fitzpatrick is that, although only three of his seven opponents between now and Week 16 are above average in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, one of four "favorable" upcoming matchups is against New Orleans, who have sured up their secondary by adding Eli Apple via trade.

Buy Low: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers appeared in this space back in Week 5 by virtue of his unusually low YPA and TDPA. Well, since then, his Actual YPA has indeed improved -- from 7.2 to 7.8 -- to the point of being in line with his True YPA (7.8). On the other hand, although Rodgers' Actual TDPA has also improved, from 4.4% to 4.5%, it remains far below his True TDPA of 6.0%. In other words, his total of 15 passing touchdowns so far this season should actually be 19.6.

Running Backs

Below is the table for running backs: