Touchdowns are NFL and fantasy football game-changers. While volume is a precursor to scoring, a touchdown shifts head-to-head matchups with a single play. Touchdown regression is the premise of betting on the big-picture probability of a player regressing towards the NFL average and/or their individual career average. Looking at the first six weeks of the season, here are the regression candidates at quarterback:
*Touchdown and interception rates calculated by dividing touchdowns by completed passes, interceptions by incompletions*
Quarterbacks
Positive Regression Candidates
Of current starting quarterbacks with a decent volume of attempts, Newton has the second-lowest TD rate in the NFL at 2.4%. A strong regression number is anything below 5%. Just one quarterback finished below 5% in 2019 (Joe Flacco, 3.5%) as a point of comparison. The weapons are lacking in New England with minimal tight end presence and N'Keal Harry struggling to progression in Year 2. Newton's career TD rate during qualifying seasons is 7.9% and his lowest season is 6.8%. Expect Newton to rise over the rest of the season. Newton is also on the INT rate regression list at 10.8% thus far, above the 9.5% threshold and more than 2% higher than any other season of his career.
Jones has only one previous data point, a sturdy 8.5% TD rate as a 2019 rookie, above the NFL average. This year has been a sharp downturn, however, at 2.4% through six weeks, the lowest in the NFL. Jones' INT rate is similar to last year's average-ish 6.9% mark. While the weapons are unspectacular, Jones does have an improving Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the rest of the season.
With easily the best weapons of the positive regression candidates on the list, Burrow leads the NFL in pass attempts through six weeks but sports an anemic 3.8% TD rate. Both Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green among Burrow's targets are strong regression candidates to break out of their touchdown slump over the final weeks of the season.
Cousins is a strong INT rate regression candidate. He is lapping the 2020 field at 16.1%, which would be the highest qualifying mark in the past 15 years. As a point of comparison, Jameis Winston last season was only at 12.2%.
Negative Regression Candidates
Wilson possesses one of the stronger TD rates for his career of any active quarterback. His career rate is a robust 9.4% with a career-high of 12.5% back in 2018. However, his 15.4% through six weeks would be the highest in the last 15 years of tracking and by nearly 2%. Lamar Jackson's 13.6% last year is the current high-water mark. The weapons are strong with D.K. Metcalf sporting a 23% mark, just as regression-worthy as Wilson within the receiver position, and Tyler Lockett is a still-high but more earthly 13%.
Garoppolo's only other qualifying season was 2019 with an average-level 8.2% TD rate. The early 2020 season has Garoppolo sturdily over the 9.5% regression line at 11.1%. All of the 49ers' pass-catchers are within a reasonable spectrum of average with the biggest split being between Garoppolo (11%) and the other quarterbacks seeing time for the 49ers (C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens) combining for a lowly 4%.
After a torrid three-game start to the season (12%), Allen has slowed to a still-high but non-regression-worthy 9% of the most recent three games. Overall, Allen still sits at 11% on the season. Gabriel Davis, John Brown, and especially Tyler Kroft (two scores on six receptions) are regression candidates to mirror Allen over the rest of 2020.
Roethlisberger is a borderline TD rate candidate at 9.6%, higher than any season of his since 2007. However, his INT rate of 2% would be easily a career-best mark and half of the typical regression threshold. Roethlisberger's career INT rate is north of 7%, above the NFL average.
Carr's career INT rate of 5.2% is one of the better active quarterback marks. However, his 2.1% in 2020 is easily a career-best and close to half the threshold for regression.
Like Derek Carr, look for more interceptions from Matt Ryan to close the season. Ryan's 3.5% INT rate is nearly half of his career 6.2% mark.
Dynasty Trading Thought of the Week
Use all possible forms of analysis of a team's strength to evaluate a rookie pick range of outcomes. As an example, myfantasyleague.com has an array of data on team performance - beyond record and total points scored - available through their 'Power Rankings' page among other options by going to Reports-Standings-Power Ranks. These include All-Play record and Potential Points most notably. By using all available information, one can identify overproducing and underproducing teams in the league in addition to evaluating their roster, injured players, etc.
If having trouble selling certain players outright for a desired rookie pick range, a secondary strategy is to upgrade within a round based on pick projections by including a flip player and a later projected pick for one earlier in the round.
Also, as a perennially strong team, this is a tactic to gain higher Round 1 picks by selling their own 1st, plus a player, for a projected earlier pick in the round or even the prospect of a non-playoff or earlier pick. Use caution with this approach for only dominant team dynamics, but this is another hidden strategy to get a lottery ticket for a potential top selection without paying 'full freight' of acquiring the pick through traditional means.
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