Paralysis by analysis can creep into the two-week period prior to a Super Bowl. After all, having experienced football every weekend for almost five months, to have it taken away leaves a gap in our lives that needs filling – often with speculation and trying to conjure scenarios in our mind’s eye. The 55th edition of The Big Game lends itself to that daydreaming, with the incomparable Tom Brady facing off against the young buck who could seize his second Lombardi Trophy in a row, Patrick Mahomes II.
In this season like no other, it is heartening to make it to the finish line and be rewarded – as fans, as bettors, as enthusiasts for the game – with such a potentially spectacular clash. In this article, we will delve into the game itself, what prop bets present good value, and how best to enjoy the game – even if you are furiously ripping up your betting slip within moments of its kick-off.
The opening line had the Chiefs favored by 3.5, but that quickly shifted to Chiefs by -3, with the market correcting what it saw as a grievous error, namely betting against Mr. Brady. Without further ado, let’s jump in.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
KANSAS CITY (-3.5 to -3) at TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 56.5)
(Sunday, 6:30 pm ET, CBS)
Through the first 54 Super Bowls, the AFC and NFC have tied 27-27: on Sunday, the tie will be broken – for a year at least. After Vegas kicked off the line at Chiefs -3.5, money came in on the Bucs, including an $80,000 bet on Tampa Bay on an adjusted line of +3.5 by one enterprising individual. What is clear thus far, however you choose to consume your football content, is that this is a clash that will polarize many. Like a fine work of art, the more you look at this game, the more you are fascinated by its many angles and hidden details.
If you are a history buff, the trend is clearly in favor of the Chiefs: favorites have gone 36-17 straight up and 29-20-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. In many ways, Kansas City blindsided people with their performance two weeks ago to burst the bubble for the Bills; Andy Reid’s team was ruthlessly efficient and feisty enough on defense to put the clamps on Josh Allen. The advantage the Chiefs have is their offense almost acting as a cheat code for their defense; with the efficiency of Patrick Mahomes II and the weapons at his disposal, the defense can feed off that energy and, in true Steve Spagnuolo form, take more chances. Indeed, one Tom Brady should remember how Spagnuolo's scheme turned the highest-scoring offense in NFL history into a shadow of itself in 2007. Might history repeat?
The Buccaneers cannot and should not be discounted so easily, however. The first team to play in their home stadium in the history of the Super Bowl, the ability to drive to the stadium and avoid the hustle and bustle of travel is an undeniable advantage. On a seven-game winning streak entering Sunday, the Bucs could not ask for a better man to be leading the charge, with Brady making his 10th appearance in this game. As an underdog in the postseason, he has been a phenomenal investment, going 8-3 SU and ATS. But it will not simply come down to an arms race, Brady versus Mahomes, in this game. Tampa Bay boasts one of the most fearsome defensive front sevens in football and will aim to recreate the 49ers game plan of last year when Mahomes was knocked around early and often. It took a miraculous comeback to get the Chiefs over the hump. The question this time will be whether the Bucs can truly hammer home their advantage and, like Derrick Brooks in their lone Super Bowl victory, seal it in style?
No matter how you slice it, however, this game feels like something of a passing of the torch. Brady tossed three interceptions in Green Bay and, were it not for some questionable play-calling and an unusual lack of execution by the Packers, the Bucs may not have been able to escape those errors. Mahomes has lost just four games outside of Kansas City in his career – and it wasn’t for the lack of trying on his part, scoring 32, 31, 51, and 40 points in those games. While it is nigh on unthinkable to bet against Brady, it would be insanity to bet against the NFL’s young phenom in Mahomes. History – and a head coach in Andy Reid who will roll the dice – say the Chiefs are the right play.
Key stats:
- Night Terrors: The Buccaneers own a 14-5 overall record this season, but three of the losses have come at night, including an 0-2 record at Raymond James Stadium, where they play on Sunday.
- Under Armor: This will be the 12th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The under has gone 8-3 in the first 11 involving that type of total, including the Chiefs’ victory over the 49ers last year, 31-20.
- Road Warrior Mahomes: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II owns a 16-1 record in his last 17 games played away from Arrowhead Stadium dating back to the start of the 2019 season.
Pick: Kansas City
SUPER BOWL PLAYS
This week will feature a mixture of player props, novelty bets, and regular bets on the big game. Let’s dive in.
* ONE STAR BETS *
- SUPER BOWL LV MVP
- TRAVIS KELCE (CHIEFS) – 13/1
- TYRANN MATHIEU (CHIEFS) – 45/1
- WILL AN EXTRA POINT OR FIELD GOAL HIT THE UPRIGHT?
- YES – 9/2
** TWO STAR BETS **
- ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
- LEONARD FOURNETTE (BUCS) – 13/10
- MECOLE HARDMAN (CHIEFS) – 2/1
- PLAYER OVER/UNDERS
- TYREEK HILL OVER 92.5 RECEIVING YARDS – 5/6
- SCOTTY MILLER OVER 20.5 RECEIVING YARDS – 5/6
*** THREE STAR BETS ***
- ALTERNATE HANDICAP
- KANSAS CITY (-6.5) – 6/4
- ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER/MONEYLINE DOUBLE (1.24-1)
- TRAVIS KELCE ANYTIME TD
- KANSAS CITY – FOR THE WIN
RESULTS
Regular Season
- SEASON OVERALL: 132-118-4 (53.1%)
- BEST BETS: 36-30-2, last week 3-1 (55.2%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 43-37-1, last week 4-1 (54%)
Postseason
- LAST WEEK: 0-2
- POSTSEASON OVERALL: 4-8 (33.3%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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