Patrick Mahomes II

The numbers for Mahomes have regressed over the last two seasons. He hasnt needed to throw too much. With his young receivers expected to develop, he is always a threat to be dominant again. 

Patrick Mahomes has fallen out of the top 5 in each of the past two years. He has nearly fallen out of the top 10. Travis Kelce isn't getting any younger. If he can get over 30 touchdown passes again, he'll be in that top-5 conversation once again. 

His receivers should be healthier, but the Chiefs now rely on defense, quick passes, and ball control. The QB1 ceiling returns only if Worthy makes a big leap.

Mahomes could unlock his elite ceiling if he gets his wish about revitalizing the Chiefs' vertical game. Xavier Worthy will be the key. Rashee Rice may look good in workouts, but most skill players do. It's the weekly pounding and difficulty recovering after rehabbing a major injury that's an issue. 

If Mahomes can get quality production from two of Worthy, Rice, Travis Kelce, and Marquise Brown, he's likely closer to a top-5 QB than a top-10 QB.

After failing to register as a Top 12 QB1 for the first time in his starting career, the Chiefs made a stated commitment to creating more explosive passing plays. Mahomes remains an elite quarterback talent with arguably the deepest arsenal of weapons in his career.

Being able to draft Mahomes this late is a blessing. Take advantage.

In terms of real football, Mahomes once again got the job done in 2024, taking the Chiefs to yet another Super Bowl. In terms of fantasy, he was rather disappointing. After a tough Super Bowl loss, and the team getting all their receivers back, expect a bounce back.

He's failed to eclipse 30 passing touchdowns since 2022. He's also posted his lowest air yards per attempt in each of the last two seasons, with double-digit interceptions. The rushing elevates his outlook. Still, don't bank on a return to 40 passing touchdowns.