Will DeAndre Hopkins Finish as the No. 1 Receiver?

Photo: Michael Chow, USA Today Sports

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The phrase “been there done that” is very applicable to DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has finished as a WR1 in points per game in four of his last seven seasons. Since 2017, he has finished in the Top 5 in points per game each year. Additionally, after the Houston Texans traded him to the Arizona Cardinals, Hopkins still finished 5th in points per game despite the change in scenery during the pandemic. However, as great as Hopkins has been, he has never been the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver on a per-game basis. This is significant because the end-of-year finish considers other top players who may have played fewer games but performed better in those games.

Even though Hopkins finished the 2018 season as the WR1 overall in points, he was third in points per game behind Davante Adams and Antonio Brown. The 2020 Cardinals were better than the 2018 Texan game in passing attempts (575 vs. 506), passing yards (3916 vs. 3781), and passing touchdowns (27 vs. 26). This year will be the year where Hopkins finishes as the WR1 overall and in points per game.

#Texans WR @DeAndreHopkins has recorded the most receptions (528) by a player in his first six seasons in NFL history.

Since 2017, Hopkins is the only player in the NFL ranked in the top-2 in targets, receptions, rec. yards, receiving TDs, rec. 1st downs and 25+ yard receptions. pic.twitter.com/H8Gqk7rNm7

— Houston Texans PR (@TexansPR) September 4, 2019

HOP, Skip, and Jump

Hopkins was virtually unstoppable in his first year with Arizona. He finished with 115 receptions on 160 targets for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. According to Playerprofiler, Hopkins was No. 1 in route participation and No. 2 in both targets and target share. He was also second in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. Hopkins was greatly aided by his new quarterback Kyler Murray, who was 7th in attempts, 12th in passing touchdowns, and 13th in passing yards. The star receiver also averaged 85.8 air yards per game and accounted for 32.8% of team air yards. Hopkins' touchdown upside should stay consistent or exceed last season, where he was seventh in red-zone targets.

Most TD Receptions vs Press Coverage Since 2016, According to Next Gen Stats

ARI DeAndre Hopkins 22
NO Michael Thomas 18
GB Davante Adams 16
DET Marvin Jones 16

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) July 23, 2020

When HOPportunity Comes Knocking

Despite changing teams, Hopkins proved that his talent and efficiency transcended surrounding factors. He finished as a top-12 fantasy receiver six times last year, tied for third at the position. By comparison, Stefon Diggs only finished as a top-12 receiver five times in his first year with the Bills. Hopkins not only helped his own cause, but he also elevated the Cardinals' offense across the board.

What Could Have Been and What Will Be

Last year, Murray injured his shoulder in Week 11, which hindered him for a few games. There is a strong possibility that Hopkins could have finished as the WR1 overall if Murray was fully healthy all season. Between Weeks 1-10, Murray was QB1 in points per game, and Hopkins was tied for second in points per game.

The expectation is that Hopkins will still be one of the best receivers in football going into 2021. Despite the additions of A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, he should still receive the vast majority of the targets. It is presumed that Moore will be in the slot and Green will line up outside opposite of Hopkins. The addition of these two receivers, and the continued maturation of Christian Kirk, shouldn't be considered threats to Hopkins' upside. Rather, it should improve the offense's versatility, sustain drives, and provide a bigger pie for Hopkins to eat his customary chunk from. Meanwhile, other threats to the No. 1 spot have question marks. Davante Adams may not have Aaron Rodgers. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones now have to share targets on a run-heavy team. Tyreek Hill is touchdown-dependent. Calvin Ridley will have to face consistent double teams and No. 1 corners this year. With other elite receivers facing questions and Hopkins' situation improving, don't be surprised if this is the year he finally ascends to the No. 1 overall ranking at the position.

Stats and Projections