The Gut Check No.536: Don't Sleep on Emmanuel Sanders

Photo: Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports

Outliers are a specialty of mine. This year, there are few better outliers worth discussing than Emmanuel Sanders, a 34-year-old receiver joining his fourth team in three years and enduring his worst season of production since his injury-plagued 2017 campaign. Based on conventional thinking that accounts for age and production, Sanders' fantasy viability is toast.

Of course, conventional fantasy thinking can err on aggregating specific factors like age and production when, unlike engineers and quality managers, they're not assessing production with large enough samples of data to eliminate correlation-equals-causation issues. While it's more likely that an older player will have a lower chance of delivering strong production, the exact factors many analysts use to make the argument aren't accurate and lack the predictability that they claim.

The result is a false belief in accuracy with data that's more coincidental than data-driven. For the give-me-the-answers reader, who looks more at results than process, this doesn't matter to them as long as the analyst using this method continues delivering more productive answers than unproductive answers.

For fantasy managers looking for every edge in competitive leagues—a large percentage of my loyal readership—it's imperative to research players on the margins who can vastly outproduce expectations

Emmanuel Sanders is one of those players in 2021 and while his age may increase his chances for injury in the violent world of football, you're going to learn why his decline in production between 2017 and 2020 has less to do with his play and more to do with surrounding talent. You'll also discover why Sanders' arrival in Buffalo is an upgrade to John Brown.

Sanders, whose current average draft position is at the bottom end of the 15th round in 12-team leagues, has a legitimate ceiling as a strong fantasy WR2. You're about to see why people are sleeping on Sanders and why you should make him a priority late-round discount.

The Rationale Behind Sanders' Decline in Fantasy Value, Part I: The Bills Depth Chart

Currently, the 65th receiver drafted via ADP data, Sanders hasn't finished a healthy season ranked this low since his third season as a Pittsburgh Steeler in 2012. Footballguys' Player Page on Sanders gives one rationale for Sanders' current fantasy value and it's a worthwhile starting point.

Sanders has been very consistent over the last few years, despite moving from Denver to San Francisco and then New Orleans. Josh Allen will be able to rely on him to make plays, but the question is how much he will get on the field with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis rotating in as well. One of those three could break out, but it's dicey trying to figure it out. You'll have to pick one as a flex option and hope that you get the right guy who might be able to step up as more.

How much will he get on the field with Beasley and Davis rotating in as well? The question needs to be, How much work will Beasley and Davis see with the development of slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie?

Beasley is reportedly on the bubble after McKenzie's 2020 performance and continued development during the offseason. Davis had a nice rookie year and poses the most significant threat to Sanders as a full-time outside receiver.

It's not as great of a threat as it may appear. Davis generated a lot of his biggest plays from the slot or the tight spot as the third option on one side of the formation closest to the line. These two spots accounted for 36 percent of Davis' alignments last year. He earned 35 percent of his yardage and 29 percent of his touchdowns from those spots.

Although the remaining 65 percent of his yardage production came from perimeter alignments, 43 of Davis' 50 targets from the perimeter (86 percent) were in sets with at least three receivers and the majority of these targets came in sets with 4-5 receivers. When linking this information with Davis' 53 percent catch rate, and we see that Davis didn't deliver as a primary weapon in the receiving game without getting schemed open.

While Davis wins contested catches and has skill in the red zone, he is not a quick-twitch athlete off the line. He needs a longer runway to reach top speed and is at his best when working the middle of the field in open zones.

There's also the vital fact that John Brown missed seven games last year, earning only 52 targets — a 55 percent drop from the 115 targets he commanded in 2019. When considering the alignments, drops, Davis' athletic makeup, and Brown's injury, the Bills are clearly hoping that Davis will continue developing his game but the addition of Sanders is a clear sign that they aren't counting on Davis as a full-time perimeter option this year.

It's important to note that Brown was the primary option in 2019 and Stephon Diggs took over that role in masterful fashion in 2020. Even so, Brown's 52 targets project to 118 targets if he played the full season. It's doubtful that the Bills would have leaned has hard on Beasley and Davis — who combined for 169 targets — with a healthy Brown in the lineup.

During the seven games Brown missed, Beasley had four games with double-digit target totals. Beasley only had five games with double-digit target totals. It's clear that Buffalo leaned on its most veteran option with Brown gone.

Based on the data, the athletic makeup and roles of the Bills receivers, and Sanders' skills (more on that below), Sanders is in town to replace Brown and a healthy Brown in 2020 would have commanded 115-120 targets.

The Rationale Behind Sanders' Decline in Fantasy Value, Part II: Age

Fantasy football is the ultimate "what have you done for me lately," past time. After consecutive years with starter production in most fantasy formats in 2018-19, Sanders dipped outside the top 36 (44th) at his position in 2020. Although he matched 2019's touchdown production (5), his targets (82) and receptions (61) were his lowest totals in eight seasons.

There's a tendency to conflate these declines with age. There aren't many receivers who deliver starter production past the age of 34. Last year, Sanders had the best 2020 campaign among receivers that were at least 32 years old.

That doesn't sound promising. If you're an ageist with your approach to fantasy management, the only way you're still probably reading this article is if you accepted the logic of the introductory remarks.

Still, there are players who have delivered starter production after 34

Old Man Game: Fantasy Starters 34+ Since 2000

There's worthwhile information from this data. It's not scientific, but it is rooted in observation and an understanding of football skills:

• 11 of the receivers on this list contributed 19 of these 31 seasons over this 20-year span.
• Four of these receivers had three seasons of starter production — five if you include Jerry Rice's seasons from ages 34-39.
• This list isn't filled with low-end starters. There were 6 WR1 seasons, 13 WR2 seasons, and 12 WR3 seasons.
• The athletic makeup of this list is also enlightening:
• Big/Physical/Fast Players: Terrell Owens and Jimmy Smith.
• Big/Slower/Physical Players: Larry Fitzgerald, Rod Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Keyshawn Johnson, and Anquan Boldin.
• Average-Size/Quick Players Lacking Top Speed: Jerry Rice and Keenan McCardell.
• Average-Size/Quick/Fast Players: Tim Brown, Derrick Mason, Joey Galloway, and Donald Driver.
• Smaller/Quick Players Lacking Top Speed: Bobby Engram.
• Smaller/Quick/Fast Players: Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, and Steve Smith.
• None of the Big and Physical Players earned WR1 seasons.
• Average-sized receivers with speed accounted for the most WR1 seasons, but smaller options with speed and/or quickness accounted for two WR1 seasons, a WR2 season, and two WR3 seasons.
• The most common trait among all the receivers was versatile route running that could match up well against man-to-man coverage. Muhsin Muhammad, Bobby, Engram, and Anquan Boldin were the only players at a stage in their careers where they were no longer capable of winning consistently man-to-man beyond the shallow zones of the field.
• With the exception of Engram, Boldin, and arguably Fitzgerald, the rest of these receivers could win outside and inside.

If an aging receiver remains a versatile route runner with the ability to separate against man-to-man and can play inside and outside, he fits the criteria. As you'll see later, Sanders' physical dimensions and speed place him in the group with Harrison, Bruce, and Smith. And stylistically, Sanders has a lot in common with Mason, Driver, McCardell, Smith, and Bruce--players who could win in the vertical game but also work well over the middle.

First, let's focus on Sanders' production decline because much of it can be attributed to surrounding talent and changes in the scheme.

The Rationale Behind Sanders' Decline in Fantasy Value, Part III: Recent Statistical Production

Sanders' prime years were 2014-16, when he delivered three consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns, averaging 138 targets per year during this span as the 1-B option to 1-A Demaryius Thomas. For two of those three seasons, Sanders worked with Peyton Manning.

In 2017, Sanders played through a difficult ankle injury that cost him four games and limited him in several others. In 2018, Sanders had earned 71 catches, 868 yards, and 4 scores in 12 games and was on track for a 95-catch, 1,157-yard, 5-score campaign before suffering an Achilles tear in practice before Week 13.

Achilles injuries are career killers for running backs, but we've seen Michael Crabtree deliver three fantasy starter seasons after his 2013 injury, including WR1 year with 89 catches, 1,003 yards, and 8 scores three years later in 2016. Steve Smith also returned at age 37 and delivered 70 catches, 799 yards, and 5 scores in 14 games. If he played a full 16-game season, he would have been on track for fantasy starter production.

Sanders rebounded with a top-32 fantasy season in 2019 while working with Joe Flacco in Denver and then getting traded midseason to San Francisco. Although Sanders was familiar with Kyle Shanahan's offense, the midseason change to new terminology and a new quarterback still required an adjustment that slowed the learning curve.

In 2020, Sanders missed two games with a positive COVID-19 test while with the Saints. Looking at the various production points with Sanders from 2020, it's easy to see why fantasy analysts would conclude that his change of teams, age, and production declines are the sign of him falling off the proverbial cliff:

• Sanders only earned 11.9 yards per catch.
• Pro Football Focus tracked Sanders only forcing three missed tackles.
• His 2.7 yards after the catch is the worst total of his career.

None of these points offer an accurate context to pin on Sanders as a player in decline. Fantasy managers often accept them as such, but that's why watching the games and understanding how football works actually can provide superior information.

Sanders played nine games last year with Drew Brees and the Saints' quarterback gritted through 11 cracked ribs, a collapsed lung, foot, and a torn rotator cuff. He had little velocity to offer as a thrower and it limited the range of the field he could access in addition to his accuracy. Brees' yards per attempt in 2020 was his lowest figure in seven years and last year was his least productive season since 2003.

Sanders wasn't the only receiver on the Saints to see declines in yard per catch. Michael Thomas and Jared Cook saw declines as well. This also had as much to do with the lack of pinpoint accuracy of Taysom Hill as it did an injured Brees.

When studying Sanders' season with the Saints for this article, it was notable that Sanders wasn't earning pinpoint targets. When examining the film below, you'll see that a significant number of his catches were targets that required adjustments that no receiver could earn yardage after the catch if they even secured the ball.

It's hard to earn YAC and forced missed tackles when the quarterback can't hit the receiver in stride. It's why watching the games provides context for a lack of YAC and missed tackles that are more valuable than erroneously conflating the data to age.

If Sanders fails to earn fantasy production, it will reinforce these false rationales because the pastime worships the altar of results without true examination of the process. However, you know the truth and if it isn't with Sanders, you will earn an advantage with players where the herd missed the potential value due to their faulty approach.

What Sanders still has to offer

According to Bills Beat Reporter Sal Capaccio on June 8, Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll gave this assessment of Sanders:

Brian Daboll on WR Emmanuel Sanders: Can play inside and outside. Has a good football mind. We will keep giving him as much as he can handle.

— Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) June 8, 2021

There are also multiple reports that Sanders and Allen have established an early connection during OTAs. This just underscores what Sanders' game reveals on the field, a skilled player who can win in man-to-man and zone, in traffic, and in the vertical game from perimeter and the slot.

Even without a quarterback, Sanders had several exposures of 2020 film where he earned separation against man-to-man coverage, displaying acceleration and a top gear to do so. I watched every rep of Sanders' tape, so I wouldn't be showing these examples if they weren't indicative of what he displayed.

There were reps I didn't show where Sanders earned deep targets that were underthrown — something you won't see as often with Josh Allen delivering targets.

Sanders is an excellent option in the middle of the field against zone coverage, which is an upgrade to John Brown and will make Sanders a desirable matchup piece when the Bills spread the field — which they did more often than all but one team in the league last year. Here is Sanders in action against zone coverage. Note his ability to manipulate multiple defenders and make difficult plays in traffic and against contact.

I hope you also have taken note of the lack of YAC opportunities that were common with his targets last year. It's these commonplace stances rooted in the misinterpretation of statistics relative to the film that can be the source of finding potential outliers of excellent value every year.

Comparing Sanders and Brown

Sanders can slide right into Brown's role in Buffalo and actually expand the possibilities of the role because Brown wasn't as adept in the slot. While Brown is considered faster, we've established that Sanders hasn't lost his speed. According to NextGenStats, Sanders' top speed on the field during his past three seasons rivals the top gear of Brown.

Here's a breakdown of Sanders' past three years and Brown's past two in Buffalo in terms of alignment, motion, top miles per hour ran, and explosive plays.

Sanders vs. Brown in Role and Explosive Plays

In addition to Sanders earning far more usage from the slot, he also generates a similar rate of explosive plays as Brown. This is the case despite comparing Sanders to Brown during Sanders' perceived years of decline.

When comparing the two on tape, there's evidence that Sanders is a better route technician in the middle of the field. He's more artful with manipulating multiple defenders whereas Brown leans too much on his speed and needed Josh Allen's arm to bail out the lack of route skill.

Allen's throwing velocity is also the notable difference in outcomes that Sanders could have had last year but Brees couldn't supply--especially with pass placement, YAC, and second-chance opportunities when the first break doesn't come open.

When comparing their route trees, Sanders hasn't earned targets on as great of a variety of routes as Brown due to the differences in system and quarterback. However, as we see on tape, Sanders can run the outs, the over routes, the posts, go and digs.

Sanders vs. Brown: Route Tree

When accounting for Sanders' craft that sets him apart from every Bills receiver other than Stefon Diggs, the athletic ability that's still easy to see on film, a strong-armed quarterback at the height of his powers, and a player-friendly system, Sanders easily has top-24 fantasy upside at his position.

Thanks to a pastime where the community is afraid of drafting older players and has a tendency to conflate disparate data points that lack the correlations that they believe, Sanders presents strong mid-round production value at a 15th-round price tag that isn't likely to rise dramatically. It makes Sanders a low-risk investment with roster-changing potential as the return.