The Perfect Draft: Default ESPN Leagues

Photo: Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports

Footballguys coined the Perfect Draft article series way back in 2002 when co-founder David Dodds started the series. We featured detailed stat projections and the principles of my Value-Based Drafting system Footballguys was built upon.

Over the years, it's become one of our cornerstone strategy features, delivering a clear plan for crushing your draft. Our stated goal at Footballguys is to help our customers win more at fantasy football, and the Perfect Draft series is a big part of how we do that.

Way back in 2002, David identified two key principles for a Perfect Draft:

1. All Players Have Value

Most of life can be referenced in The Godfather movie. In this case, it's keeping it business, not personal. This means: don't love or hate players. Don't get emotionally attached. Your goal for a Perfect Draft is to draft players who'll significantly outperform their draft position.

I don't believe in "Do Not Draft" lists. I do believe in "I won't draft him at his current Average Draft Position, so I probably won't be getting him" lists like our buddy Matt Waldman put together here.

2. Understand Your Competition In The Draft Room

Whether it's players for your draft or a new car or Top Shot NFT, if you want to find a good deal on something, you first have to understand the market price of the thing. The going rate that most people agree something is worth. To find good deals in your fantasy draft, you must first understand your competitors' value of a player. In an Auction Draft, this is easy to see. In a regular draft, the cost of a player is their draft position.

You'll have the Perfect Draft when you select players who are more valuable than the cost of the spot where you draft them. You need to know how you value a player and how the other GMs in your league value a player. We provide this crucial information for you with our Average Draft Position Data.

I'll add four more.

3. Understand Your Scoring System And Your League

This one is the biggest thing I see fantasy GMs miss. It’s the foundation of my Value-Based Drafting system. Your scoring system matters. A LOT. Your starting lineup requirements matter. A LOT. The number of teams in your league matters. A LOT. You're reading a specific article written for a 12 Team PPR league with a specific scoring system and starting lineup requirement. We’ll say more below, but in this league, you can very likely wait on a quarterback as they're less valuable. But that’s not all leagues. If you’re in a 14-team superflex league, quarterbacks are insanely valuable. Because the situation is different.

It’s why I put little stock in blanket strategies advocating for shunning a position. Zero-RB or Zero-WR blanket strategies are better for gathering clicks than they are winning leagues. You have to know more about your league’s scoring system, starting lineups, and number of teams to understand the value. Fortunately, we’ll do all that for you with our Custom Cheatsheets or our Draft Dominator if you want maximum flexibility. We’ll do the work for you.

4. Flexibility

Author David Allen writes about a concept called "Mind Like Water." He uses the example of how the water in a pond reacts appropriately to whatever rock you throw into it. If you throw a big rock into the pond, the water accepts the big rock and essentially says, "Nice. Big rock". If you throw a pebble into the water, the water accepts the pebble and says, "Nice. Pebble". The point is whatever you present to the water, it accepts and responds appropriately. In this case, the water is flexible.

This is how you should approach your draft. If you go in fixated on drafting two running backs in the first two rounds or avoiding running backs in the first two rounds or never taking a player over 30 years old or any host of inflexible rules you place on yourself, you won't have the Perfect Draft. Be flexible.

It's the adage of letting the game come to you. You need clear valuations of players. And you need a plan of how things may unfold based on what your league mates will do, and then you let the draft come to you. Respond appropriately as it unfolds.

5. Preparation

Seneca said, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Stephen Leacock once observed: "I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."

Both these quotes apply to your fantasy draft. Your draft is no different than anything else important you do. The more prepared you are, the better you're likely to perform.

Think about it. Study the players. Tweak the values. And most importantly, think about how it will unfold. This is where mock drafting can be invaluable. Our Custom Cheatsheets offers the ability to quickly do a mock draft. And our Draft Dominator offers even more sophisticated mock drafting capability.

In a draft setting with a short timer for each pick, there's little time to think. You need to have already thought. And execute based on the values you've already determined.

The very fact you're reading this article right now tells me you're on the right track with this one. Stay with it.

6. Get Your Guys And Have Fun

Regardless of the entry fee, almost all of us play fantasy football because it's fun. We think we know more about picking players than the other folks. Building and managing a team is fun. It's the foundation of our hobby. So have fun.

If you're a Bears fan and you hate Aaron Rodgers, as every Bears fan should, and seeing him do well hurts your soul, you don't have to draft him. Even if he's there at a bargain. You can draft him. You can make the case you probably should draft him. But don't remove the fun from the value equation. You don't have to draft him.

The other way I see this play is fantasy GMs who are afraid to get their guy because someone will claim they "reached." Forget about what people say. (Another area where fantasy football is like life) You're drafting players for you. So go get your guys.

Now, of course, there's a balance. Let's say you, like me, love Kyle Pitts. When I wrote this, Pitts is going early in the fifth round of 10-team ESPN drafts. If you're picking in the fourth and you love Pitts, get your guy. Few things are as sad as the GM in your draft who makes their pick and sounds like it's killing them. Draft players who you'll be glad to have. It's way more fun.

You'll see plenty we love below as our Clayton Gray breaks down the pockets of value that will help you win.

Pull up a chair. Settle in. You got this.

Let's Have the Perfect Draft

This Perfect Draft is based on a 10-team league that starts the following players:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The league scoring is as follows:

• Passing TD = 4 points
• Passing Yard = 0.04 points
• Turnover = -2 points
• Rushing/Receiving TD = 6 points
• Rushing/Receiving Yard = 0.1 points
• Reception = 1 point

And in a 16-round draft, this will be your average roster construction:

• 2 quarterbacks
• 5-6 running backs
• 5-6 wide receivers
• 1-2 tight ends
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

An Overview of Default ESPN Drafts

When you finish drafting, you'll notice there are many players who weren't drafted but could be very good this season.

There's a single reason for this. And it's not "All ESPN drafters are terrible."

It's the design of the leagues, specifically these two aspects:

• There are only 16 rounds
• Two rounds must be spent at kicker and defense

That only leaves 14 rounds that be spent taking skill position players. With only 10 teams, that's 140 players. There are way more than 140 players who are worthy of being drafted.

If you don't believe that, let's dig in deeper.

The average team will look like this:

• 1.70 quarterbacks
• 4.70 running backs
• 5.85 wide receivers
• 1.65 tight ends
• 1.05 kickers
• 1.05 defenses

That means the average league will draft these numbers of players:

• 17 quarterbacks
• 47 running backs
• 58.5 wide receivers
• 16.5 tight ends
• 10.5 kickers
• 10.5 defenses

Now, go take at your rankings and find QB18, RB48, WR60, and TE18. Those guys are worth having this season.

A Balanced Approach

Throughout your draft, you'll see value. That's just the nature of an ESPN draft. ESPN serves as an introductory platform for new fantasy players. New players leave value. It's your duty to mop it up.

The best way to mop up value is to build a balanced roster. That way, you aren't forced to bypass players who are dropping too far in order to fill holes.

Your Preferred Schedule

Break up the draft into four sections of four rounds each. And do your best to keep to these positional ranges:

• Section 1 (after 4 rounds)
  • 0-1 quarterbacks
  • 1-2 running backs
  • 1-2 wide receivers
  • 0-1 tight ends
  • 0 kickers
  • 0 defenses
• Section 2 (after 8 rounds)
  • 0-1 quarterbacks
  • 3-4 running backs
  • 3-4 wide receivers
  • 0-1 tight ends
  • 0 kickers
  • 0 defenses
• Section 3 (after 12 rounds)
  • 1-2 quarterbacks
  • 4-5 running backs
  • 4-5 wide receivers
  • 1-2 tight ends
  • 0 kickers
  • 0 defenses
• Section 4 (after 16 rounds)
  • 1-2 quarterbacks
  • 5-6 running backs
  • 5-7 wide receivers
  • 1-2 tight ends
  • 1 kicker
  • 1 defense

The Top 40

Below are the Top 40 players based on the above scoring system using the Draft Dominator. These 40 players will be your focus for your first four picks and form the core of your team.

You'll also see these players' ESPN ADP and how they are ranked in the ESPN drafting software. It is vital to realize how these two numbers affect where ESPN users draft players.

Again, it is vital to realize how ESPN ranking and ADP affect where ESPN users draft players.

Consider Darren Waller, who is seventh overall in Footballguys projections. That makes him a definite first-round pick. Right?

No, he shouldn't be a first-round pick. He's ranked far too low by ESPN (24th) and generally drafted in the third round (with an ADP of 23). Those factors combine to make Waller a great second-round pick.

As you take your core players (your first four picks), follow the positional ranges outlined for Section 1:

• Section 1 (after 4 rounds)
  • 0-1 quarterbacks
  • 1-2 running backs
  • 1-2 wide receivers
  • 0-1 tight ends

Building Your Backfield

Just build your backfield consistently throughout the draft. If there is value at running back, grab it. If there isn't, feel free to find it at another position. You will be able to come back to running backs later because you are building a solid, balanced team.

Remember your guidelines for this position:

• After four rounds, 1-2 RBs
• After eight rounds, 3-4 RBs
• After 12 rounds, 4-5 RBs
• After 16 rounds, 5-6 RBs

Here are the Top 53 running backs according to Footballguys along with their corresponding ESPN rankings.

Rounding Out Your Wide Receivers

Just build your wide receivers consistently throughout the draft. If there is value at the position, grab it. If there isn't, feel free to find it elsewhere. You will be able to come back to wide receivers later because you are building a solid, balanced team.

Remember your guidelines for this position:

• After four rounds, 1-2 WRs
• After eight rounds, 3-4 WRs
• After 12 rounds, 4-5 WRs
• After 16 rounds, 5-7 WRs

Here are the Top 73 wide receivers according to Footballguys along with their corresponding ESPN rankings.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

These two positions are approached in one of two ways:

• Draft one early and possibly be finished at the position
• Take your starter later in the draft and likely have a backup

Pretty simple.

The biggest mistake you can make is to take an early tight end or an early quarterback and then drafting another player at the position. There will be plenty of roster-worthy quarterbacks and tight ends on your waiver wire. If your elite starter goes down, you'll have options.

Remember your guidelines for these positions:

• After four rounds, 0-1 QBs and 0-1 TEs
• After eight rounds, 0-1 QBs and 0-1 TEs
• After 12 rounds, 1-2 QBs and 1-2 TEs
• After 16 rounds, 1-2 QBs and 1-2 TEs

Here are the Top 24 at each position according to Footballguys along with their corresponding ESPN rankings.

Kickers and Defenses

These positions are even easier thank quarterback and tight end. Take one of each. And take them with your last two picks.

That's it.

Here are the Top 12 at each position according to Footballguys along with their corresponding ESPN rankings.

There you go.

Let the principles above guide you. Study them. Study the players. Mock draft over and over until you feel comfortable with multiple scenarios for how the draft may unfold. Once you're into it, let the draft come to you. Be flexible, don't be afraid to get your guys. And have fun.

Let's crush this.