Our thoughts on players should be changing after seeing a month of action. Beforehand, our starting data points were offseason priors and ADP. Simply put, we’ve relied on what we thought we knew. But there are actionable takeaways for us to consider. And some aren’t exactly what we expected. Regardless, I’ve learned a few lessons from the past week, which may help as we head into Week 5.
Quarterback: Geno Smith, Seahawks
Week 4 Results: (Projected) 15.4, (Actual) 31.7
I’m always down for chaos and drama in the NFL, and Geno Smith and the Seahawks gave it to us in Week 1. But I expected a quick downturn after an emotional start. However, Smith is the QB6 on the season after a 93-point shootout with Detroit. After two massive performances, I had to go through each of his games to see if this was sustainable or just a flash in the pan.
Advice Moving Forward
Stream Smith in favorable matchups. Seattle’s defense forces them into passing scenarios each week. With Smith being aggressive and efficient, he’s a viable streaming candidate.
Again, let me be clear. I’m not advocating for Smith to become an every-week starter. It’s only been four weeks. However, he’s been able to perform well against weaker opponents. And it’s not just in the boxscore, as he’s had two top-12 finishes in consecutive weeks. Smith is in his own zip code when compared to other high-end passers.
Smith is top-5 in EPA per play and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) through four weeks. However, his outlier status emphasizes why I’m cautious. They’ve only faced one team in the Top 10 for both rushing and dropback EPA allowed (Week 2 vs. San Francisco). Coincidentally, Smith had his worst outing and ranked 25th in EPA per play. But otherwise, the offense has been humming.
Seattle’s offense ranks sixth in offensive yards per drive. They cruised past their weekly average on Sunday at 56.6 yards per set of downs. Plus, they’re converting their drives into scores.
Seattle is sixth in the rate of drives resulting in a red-zone score. Winston’s also top-10 in passing touchdowns. While we should expect these numbers to regress, Seattle’s passing rate is still top-12. Smith has a 65.0% passing rate in the red zone. The offensive gameplans favor Smith’s arm, and we should continue to roster him in positive matchups.
Running Back: Devin Singletary, Bills
Week 4 Results: (Projected) 12.8, (Actual) 11.6
OK. I can chalk one game up to the randomness of the NFL. But two weeks of either leading or near the top in targets is worth a deep dive. Devin Singletary is third on the team in looks from Josh Allen through four weeks. He also owns 46.6% of the running-back carries, giving him solid RB2 appeal. But Allen’s presence looms large, especially in the red zone. Regardless, Singletary’s usage may be worth acquiring but let’s take a closer look first.
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