Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Josh Allen MORE than 265.5 passing yards
Mac Jones MORE than 225.5 passing yards
- This is a positive correlation play based upon a belief we get a higher scoring game than expected between a New England passing offense that has been heating up and a Buffalo offense we know is capable of big numbers.
- Mac Jones has averaged over 9.0 yards per attempt in back-to-back games. Two weeks ago, he completed 85.2% of his passes against a tough Jets defense. Last week, he threw for 382 yards against the Vikings. There are signs Jones is turning the corner and settling in to the new scheme.
Game-day story: On Mac Jones ... his second NFL season ... and factors that have contributed to the Patriots' offensive struggles. https://t.co/CUarVBfetg
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) December 1, 2022
- Over the last three weeks, the Bills have given up 357 passing yards to Kirk Cousins, 324 to Jacoby Brissett, and 240 to Jared Goff.
- In his last two games against the Patriots, Josh Allen has looked like he had the answers to the test in advance. He threw for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 16 last year and then threw for 308 yards and 5 touchdowns in the playoffs.
4: Passing Fest in Las Vegas
Davante Adams MORE than 88.5 receiving yards
Austin Ekeler LESS than 50.5 rushing yards
- This is a correlation play based upon the belief that we get a high scoring game in which both teams find success through the air.
- Over his last six games, Austin Ekeler has had almost as many targets (10.8 per game) as carries (11.2 per game). He has averaged more receiving yards (47.2) than rushing yards (40.2).
- Ekeler has rushed for more than 50 yards just once in his last six games.
- Davante Adams had 10-141-1 on 17 targets in the Week 1 matchup against the Chargers.
- Adams has at least 100 receiving yards in six of his last eight games (75%).
- Adams has seen 11-plus targets in each of his last four, averaging 13.8 per game over that stretch.
Target per route run rates over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 29, 2022
36% - Davante Adams
34% - Austin Ekeler
33% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
32% - CeeDee Lamb
31% - Terry McLaurin
30% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs
28% - Tee Higgins
27% - Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, Travis Kelce
26% - Chase Claypool
3: Different Directions
Nick Chubb MORE than 95.5 rushing yards
Dameon Pierce LESS than 65.5 rushing yards
These are two running games headed in different directions with Cleveland continuing to go strong while Houston’s rushing production has fallen off a cliff.
.@NickChubb is averaging his highest yards per game mark for his career this season and passed 1K for the 4th straight year on Sunday 📈💥 pic.twitter.com/ud8yZQWDv7
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 29, 2022
The Browns have three blowout losses of seven-plus points. Nick Chubb averaged 46.0 rushing yards per game in those awful game scripts.
In the eight games the Browns have either won or lost by less than a touchdown, Chubb has averaged 112.6 rushing yards. He has gone over 100 rushing yards in six of those eight (75%).
Cleveland is favored by seven against the Houston Texans and very unlikely to get blown out, making Chubb a good bet for a big game.
The Texans are allowing a league-high 144.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
Dameon Pierce has rushed for a total of 16 yards over his last two games.
Can you still trust Dameon Pierce in your lineup? @DanielDopp and @LizLoza_FF discuss: pic.twitter.com/YS1R9TWIA7
— Fantasy Focus Live (@fantasyfocus) November 30, 2022
2: Easy looking Easy
Kirk Cousins MORE than 16.5 fantasy points
Garrett Wilson MORE than 11.5 fantasy points
- Jets head coach Robert Saleh noted after last week’s game that new starting quarterback Mike White “made the easy things look easy.” Throwing it to separation machine Garrett Wilson should look easy and is something we should expect to see often down the stretch. The same could be said for Kirk Cousins who makes throwing to Justin Jefferson look easy.
- Garrett Wilson has averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game in the four games Zach Wilson did not play.
Garrett Wilson with QBs not named Zach Wilson:
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) December 1, 2022
- 30% TPRR
- 2.27 YPRR
- Avg 5.75 rec/77.25 yards/1 TD
Vikings are allowing the most yards to WRs...
DraftKings left him at $5,300 😬 #FantasyFootball #DFS pic.twitter.com/352pOH3sIa
- Garrett Wilson has scored at least 12 fantasy points in each of the last three games started by someone other than Zach Wilson.
- Kirk Cousins has scored more than 16.5 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
1: Mini-shootout in Detroit
Trevor Lawrence MORE than 245.5 passing yards
Jared Goff MORE than 230.5 passing yards
- This is a positive correlation prop based upon a belief that we see two increasingly competent passing attacks have some success against a pair of mediocre pass defenses.
- Over the last three weeks, Trevor Lawrence has completed 76.9% of his passes, thrown for 815 yards and 6 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and a 116.1 QB rating. He has flashed the superstar potential that made him the top pick in the NFL Draft 19 months ago.
Trevor Lawrence has quietly been a pretty good fantasy QB.
— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) November 30, 2022
QB11 in pts per game on the season.
QB8 in pts per game since week 9.
QB7 in total pts since week 6.
He plays DET (32nd) & TEN (27th) over the next 2 weeks. If you need a QB, he can get you into the fantasy playoffs. pic.twitter.com/fOlNzEsmqB
- The Lions are allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks (271.7 per game).
- Jared Goff has a 102.6 QB rating at home this season. In his six home starts, he is averaging 257.8 passing yards per game and has 15 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions. By coincidence, the Jaguars are also allowing 257.8 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.