Jared Goff

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Over the last three years, Jared Goff has finished the season ranked ninth, seventh and fifth. Every year he has outperformed his ADP significantly. Ben Johnson left for a head coaching opportunity in Chicago. New coordinator John Morton should ensure a smooth transition. He was with the team in 2022 and did great work with Bo Nix in Denver last year. There is strength across the offense with the depth at wide receiver improved with two picks during the draft. Amon-Ra St.Brown and the rapidly developing Jameson Williams are a handful for opposing defenses. The offensive line is one of the league's elite. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a formidable duo at running back and Sam LaPorta is an elite young tight end. Goff’s current ADP allows for regression. While other managers are using high picks on dual-threat quarterbacks, some of who will get injured and others who will underachieve, go with Jared Goff and strengthen your other positions during your draft. 

"Ben Johnson's departure raises risk"

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The Lions played 14 games in a dome last season, which should drop to 10 games this season. Goff's career passer rating is 100.1 indoors versus 89.5 outdoors. He also averages more touchdowns (1.77 vs 1.47) and fewer interceptions (0.57 vs 0.79) per game when playing inside. Don't expect a repeat of last year's QB7 finish.

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For another team, the loss of a star offensive coordinator and All-Pro Center would facilitate a bigger decline in projections for the quarterback. The coordinator switch is less of a concern for me than losing Center Frank Ragnow. 

Centers are a significant cohesion factor for offensive line play. If the Lions see a significant increase in pressure and procedural penalties, it could have to do with a gap in communication from Ragnow's departure. 

Otherwise, I don't see John Morton doing much to change the Lions' scheme. With the Lions maintaining continuity elsewhere, look for Goff to deliver QB1 production in most league formats. 

"The loss of Ben Johnson should lead to step back for the Lions' offense. Goff is still a decent streaming option, especially in home games, but he's not a Top 10 QB again."

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There was a time when Goff wasn’t much more than a steady QB2. That narrative shifted under Ben Johnson. Goff was one of the league’s most effective passers in the Johnson system. He was the QB6 last season and didn’t finish outside the top 10 in any of the last three seasons. 

Johnson, though, is now in Chicago. John Morton is now the offensive coordinator. Morton was with Detroit as a senior offensive assistant in 2022 before working as Denver’s pass game coordinator for 2023 and 2024. 

Goff’s success was largely predicated on his play-action attempts. Nix attempted 155 play-action passes with Morton last season, throwing for 14 touchdowns despite posting a -3.5 completion percentage over expectation. Goff, meanwhile, completed six percent more of his attempts than he was expected to on 202 attempts and 14 touchdowns. 

Don’t expect this system to change much. Goff should still be a serviceable QB1 despite the change at OC.