Prop Talk Week 17

Week 17 Plays

Curtis Samuel Over 31.5 Receiving Yards

This one is a bit strange, as Curtis Samuel should be in line for an expanded role with Carson Wentz back at quarterback replacing Taylor Heinicke. In Carson Wentz’ five starts, Curtis Samuel averaged 56 receiving yards, and last week when Wentz came in as a replacement, Samuel had 52 yards. The Browns have struggled against slot receivers this season as Greg Newsome has struggled at moving down to the slot corner so much so that he has called out that he would an adjustment to his role and move back to the outside. This seems like the sportsbooks are not taking into account the change in quarterback nearly enough.

Deshaun Watson Over 216.5 Passing Yards

Deshaun Watson has struggled this season, but it doesn’t really tell the full story. The Browns have dealt with poor weather in each of the last two weeks especially last week as it was conditions that were almost impossible to throw the ball in with 30MPH winds. In his last weather friendly game, Watson threw for 276 yards against the Bengals. This week, the Browns are facing a Commanders defense that has been dominant against the run that is likely going to force the Browns into passing scenarios. The Browns need to show progress with their acquisition of Watson to inspire confidence heading into 2023, and going with a passing attack this week in 55 degree weather with no wind could be the way to do it.

Tom Brady Over 280.5 Passing Yards

By the public perception, Tom Brady has had a poor season, but this is a quarterback who is averaging 307 yards at home this season and is at home once again this week. The Buccaneers are in a must-win game in a battle for the divisional crown as if they win this week they will clinch the NFC South. The Panthers are without their top corner in Jaycee Horn this week, and his absence showed last week as Jared Goff and the Lions threw for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady has a great chance to once again top 300 yards this week.

Christian McCaffrey Under 109.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Christian McCaffrey is in an interesting spot this week. Coach Kyle Shanahan has come out and said that they are “going to be smart” about player usage over the next two weeks given that they are largely locked into the three seed unless Minnesota were to lose to open the door for a potential two seed. However, the 49ers also know that McCaffrey is their best chance to make a deep playoff run, and if he were to get injured it would significantly impact their offense, so risking injury likely is not the smartest thing at this point. We saw the beginnings of this last week when McCaffrey had just 58 total yards on 17 touches last week and with the 49ers facing Jarret Stidham it’s likely that they won’t need to give McCaffrey a significant amount of touches.

Evan Engram Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Full disclosure, this is likely a suckers bet. However, Evan Engram over the last three weeks leads the NFL in total yards for NFL tight ends and has over 48.5 in all three games. Engram has a staggering 26 receptions on 33 targets over the last three weeks as they’ve leaned on him as their top receiver as Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones have both struggled mightily. This week, the Jaguars get the Texans who have struggled against top tier tight ends including Engram who had 69 yards in their first appearance which was back in Week 5 prior to his emergence as a top tier tight end.