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There's a lot of really strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

Let's Talk About Trade Deadlines

If Dynasty, in Theory were to choose a patron saint, it would be Bertrand Russell, who wrote, "Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise." Sometimes we take vague problems like tanking and attempt to make the definition more precise ("taking any actions that one otherwise wouldn't take if draft order was not a consideration") so that appropriate solutions become more apparent. Sometimes, we take something obvious ("sometimes dynasty leagues fold or managers leave") and attempt to quantify it more precisely so we can make more informed decisions.

(Another Bertrand Russell quote: "My desire and wish is that the things I start with should be so obvious that you wonder why I spend my time stating them. This is what I aim at because the point of philosophy is to start with something so simple as not to seem worth stating, and to end with something so paradoxical that no one will believe it." Also: "William James used to preach the "will-to-believe." For my part, I should wish to preach the "will-to-doubt." None of our beliefs are quite true; all at least have a penumbra of vagueness and error. What is wanted is not the will to believe, but the will to find out, which is the exact opposite.")

Today we're going to talk about one of those things that pretty much everyone has: trade deadlines. For most leagues, they're just a few weeks away. Most managers have always had one, so they tend to believe they must be important for vague reasons they never quite consider.

But we're going to dive deep on them. What is a trade deadline? Why is it so common? What is its purpose (both its stated purpose and its actual purpose) and does it generally accomplish that goal? Just as importantly, does it have any costs, and are those costs worth the benefits?

What is a Trade Deadline?

A trade deadline does exactly what it says on the tin: creates a deadline by which you must complete trades, after which trading will no longer be allowed.

Why Do Most Leagues Have a Trade Deadline?

Honestly, I believe the vast majority of leagues with a trade deadline established one because it was the default.

I don't mean for this to be uncharitable. I'm a big fan of defaults! G.K. Chesterton once wrote the following in defense of defaults:

There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”

This passage gave rise to an idea generally known as "Chesterton's Fence": The principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. If every league you have played in has featured a trade deadline, then you definitely shouldn't get rid of it unless you're confident you understand the reasons it was there in the first place.

So Why Did Trade Deadlines Get Started?

The universalization of trade deadlines owes to two primary factors (along with several secondary ones). First, fantasy football is meant as a simulacrum of regular football. The NFL has a trade deadline, so many fantasy leagues adopted a trade deadline to match.

(A combination of mimicking the NFL and maintaining defaults is also a big reason why most leagues require two starting running backs today; fantasy football started in an era where fullbacks were the norm, so two starting running backs resulted in lineups that more closely resembled actual NFL teams. Teams no longer use a fullback, but we still start two running backs because that's the way it's always been done.)

The second main reason for a trade deadline is it prevents teams who no longer have a stake in the outcome of the league from influencing that outcome. This is a very, very good reason... in redraft leagues, where participants will often reach a point where they no longer have a stake in the outcome of the league.

Most dynasty managers got their fantasy football start in redraft, so it's understandable that many redraft conventions have simply been ported over. But one of the best parts of dynasty, in my opinion, is the fact that there is never a point where any participant no longer has a stake in the league. Even if you are not in contention to win this year, you're always in contention to win next year.

A third point I've seen raised is the idea that deadlines spur action, so trade deadlines can have the effect of increasing the number of trades as teams feel pressured to close deals in time. This may be the case; I've little doubt that trade deadlines increase the volume of trades in the period directly before the deadline, though I question whether this increase is enough to offset the guaranteed decrease in the number of trades after the deadline, and anyway, I'm not sure if "trading qua trading" is inherently good and worthy of valorizing. (There are aspects of trading that are unambiguously good. I just don't know if I subscribe to the mindset that more trading is tautologically better. Not all trades are created equal.)

Now, I'll admit my bias: I don't like trade deadlines in dynasty leagues and would prefer that they didn't exist. But I believe I'm offering a fair summary of the arguments in favor. If you don't want to take it from a noted deadline-hater like myself, my anti-deadline stances have inspired some bizarrely passionate responses over the years. You're welcome to read that piece as a prebuttal to the arguments I'm about to make, though (other than a bit about arbitrary consequences being good, actually) I don't think it raises any points other than those I've already outlined.