Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.
There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.
Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today’s NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.
For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:
- Tackles = 1.5
- Assists = .75
- Sacks = 4
- Forced fumbles = 3
- Fumble recoveries = 3
- Interceptions = 4
- Passes defended = 1.5
- Touchdowns = 6
When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.
From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.
Related: See a similar in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs defensive players here >>>
Related: See a similar in-depth look at the Las Vegas Raiders defensive players here >>>
Related: See a similar in-depth look at the Los Angeles Chargers defensive players here >>>
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The Broncos were a good but not great defense in 2022. The only significant statistical category they managed a top-five ranking was yards per pass attempt. On the other hand, the only category they finished in the bottom half of the league was sacks, where they were tied for 23rd.
The offseason saw a few potentially significant personnel changes, but the most important addition may be defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. The good news here is that Joseph runs a 3-4 that is somewhat similar to what the team ran last year. There will be some change, but they will not be reinventing the wheel.
For a good picture of what Joseph’s defense will look like, check out the Cardinals, where he has been running the show for the last four seasons. There is one big difference, though, is that he will have better personnel in some important areas.
Defensive Linemen
When pondering the Broncos’ defensive front, It’s hard to decide between optimism and pessimism. They have talented players on the outside. Free agent addition Frank Clark comes over from division foe Kansas City. The optimist sees a proven 29-year-old player that averaged better than ten sacks per season from 2016 through 2019. The pessimist sees a player that has 15 sacks over the last three seasons and was not pursued by the team he’s spent the last four years with.
In Randy Gregory, the optimist sees a highly talented player with a high ceiling and low miles who is ready for a breakout year. The pessimist sees a player that’s been on the verge of a breakout since he entered the league in 2015 but has always fallen short for one reason or another. A guy that, at age 30, has 12 career sacks.
In Barron Browning, the optimist sees a rising young star who can become the next great Broncos edge defender. The pessimist sees a player with unproven potential coming off an injury and may not be 100% until late in the season.
What I see here is a collection of players to avoid completely in redraft leagues. For those in dynasty leagues, Browning is an intriguing prospect. At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, he is small for a three-down edge defender and sometimes struggles when teams run at him. As a pass rusher, Browning shows a lot of potential.
When Denver drafted Browning in the third round back in 2021, they knew he was a talented player but were not sure what to do with him. Browning spent his rookie campaign trying to fit at inside backer. When that failed, he was moved outside, and things fell into place.
Browning spent a lot of time with the trainers last season. Despite missing three games and playing hurt in several others, he managed five sacks on 571 plays. Off-season surgery to clean up his ailing knee could land Browning on the PUP to start the season, and he may not be healthy until late in the campaign.
From an IDP perspective, it’s likely Browning will never give us much in the tackle columns, but once healthy, he could become a perennial double-digit sack guy.
Nose tackle D.J. Jones is the only returning starter among the interior linemen. Jones is a strong anchor against the run and has the power to push the pocket, but most of his contributions on the field, go unrecognized in the box scores.
Dre’mont Jones and DeShawn Williams filled out last year’s interior line. Jones managed useful numbers for those that could play him as a tackle. At 24-20-6.5, he was the No. 18 interior lineman. This is important to know because Coach Joseph brought Zach Allen over from Arizona with him, and Allen will be playing that spot.
Allen landed at 15 in last year’s final rankings at tackle. The kicker is that he did it despite missing the last four games. He had a breakout season in 2021, posting 45 combined stops, 3 sacks, and 4 turnovers. Allen was on a similar points trajectory in 2022 before missing time. Twelve batted passes over the last two seasons (eight last year) give him a little boost in leagues awarding points for passes defended. An easy transition to a familiar role should mean continued quality production and a high DT2 value with low DT1 upside.
Mike Purcell should come away with the other starting job at tackle, though he will also see snaps in the middle. Purcell is hard to move and tends to post decent tackle totals when healthy, but he is not much of a pass rusher. That opens the door for the possibility of second-year pro, Matt Hennigan, to land the job. He averaged roughly 13 snaps a game last year, totaling 8-11-1 on the year. The coaching staff seemed to like what they saw, which may have contributed to the team’s decision to move on from Williams.
- Edge Frank Clark – DL3 ceiling if he has a good year
- Edge Randy Gregory – Plenty of untapped potential, but...
- Edge Barron Browning – Better as a dynasty target
- Edge Jonathan Cooper – Solid NFL player that will get some snaps in relief
- Edge Nik Bonito – Good depth for the Broncos but no value for us
- DT Zach Allen – Priority DT2 with late DT1 upside
- DT D.J. Jones – No impact
- DT Matt Henningsen – Watch-list sleeper
- DT Mike Purcell – Marginal IDP value
- DT Jonathan Harris – No impact expected
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