Should You Fade Demario Davis in 2023?

Photo: Benny Sieu, USA Today Sports

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Fans of IDP, especially those that play in dynasty leagues, know that when you hit that elite inside linebacker, you’ve found a cornerstone for your defensive franchise. For many years the ideal candidate for this backing was Demario Davis. Demario Davis started his IDP relevancy in 2013 when he achieved 100+ total tackles for the first time in his career. Since that season, Davis has been a high-quality linebacker for IDP. His floor has been high LB2, with some outlier years of LB1 dominance, but one can safely say he is worthy of a decent pick in most formats. There is still a case to be made that he is worth a higher pick in IDP, but this wouldn’t be a hill worth dying on. Last season he was anywhere between a top 50-70 IDP (all positions), depending on your league’s scoring. There is plenty of reason to believe that was the last season we see a finish in the top 100, and there are a variety of reasons why.

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A Changing of a Guard?

As is true with most great players, there comes a point when a hungry young player begins to take some of the shine from the old stalwart of the team. There may be no greater example of that than the linebacker corps in New Orleans. Young star linebacker Pete Werner was doing Davis no favors this past season and was pacing for top-five linebacker numbers prior to an injury that stole almost half his season. Despite only being healthy for nine games, Werner finished the year with 80 tackles, which was just 31 fewer than Davis, who played all 17 games. Werner was slowly but surely cementing himself as the defensive centerpiece, and it is safe to say Davis got the lion's share of his points between Week 10 and 18. Over that span, Davis compiled 59 of his 109 total tackles and had just half of a sack. The most telling stat here is his sudden decline in sacks, showing that the Saints defense changed how he was being used to accommodate Werner’s absence. Prior to this change, Davis was on pace for double-digit sacks but fewer than 100 total tackles. Werner will be back next year, and seeing as he is just 24 years old, there’s little reason to believe he won’t be dominant yet again.

Davis' Age and Salary

There’s also the age argument, which isn’t always a clear and defining rule for a player suddenly bottoming out, but it is something managers need to take notice of. The NFL more and more is becoming a fast-paced, “athleticism over all other skills” league. There are simply too many great athletes coming into the league each year in their early 20s that don’t command high dollars. This season, Davis will be 34 years old. This is also the last year where his salary isn’t an outlier - he will only be owed $1,165,000 in base salary. In 2024, that will balloon to $10,000,000. He is the perfect candidate for a trade and restructure at the end of his career, and as we previously mentioned, he has a more than capable replacement as a cornerstone player, who would be significantly cheaper next year. Werner will be making over $1,000,000 for the first time in his career this year. It doesn’t take a mathematician to notice the significant salary difference. If it becomes a blind resume situation between Davis and the younger Werner, Davis is the odd one out.