Amari Cooper Has Top-10 Potential in 2023

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

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"Amari Cooper will be good to go by training camp." Kevin Stefanski confirmed Cooper's offseason recovery from a core muscle surgery was on track in May. The hype around Elijah Moore's emergence dominated Browns' OTAs and minicamp, and the arrival of rookie Cedric Tillman and veteran wideout Marquise Goodwin was the talk of the town. While sidelined with the injury, Cooper failed to hit the field for team drills this spring and early summer. He did individual work in the second week of minicamp. Still, there wasn't an opportunity for social media highlights, media buzz, or anything that would inflate Cooper's value over the last few months. Cooper's lack of minicamp buzz should help fantasy managers, as his out-of-sight, out-of-mind nature has created value in fantasy football this offseason. With the Browns leaning into the passing attack, a massive target share potential, and a full season ahead for Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper has top-10 potential in 2023.

Scheme Shifting

The Browns' offseason moves indicate a shift to a more explosive passing attack. The acquisitions of Elijah Moore and Marquise Goodwin and the drafting of potential heir-apparent to Amari Cooper or Donovan Peoples-Jones - Cedric Tillman - indicate a focus on a downfield-centric approach. In 2022 with Jacoby Brissett under center for most of the season, the Browns leaned into heavy personnel groupings. Harrison Bryant, the Browns' No. 2 tight end, out-snapped David Bell, the Browns' No. 3 wideout. Since Kevin Stefanski took over as head coach, Cleveland has been near the bottom of the league in 11-personnel (three WRs, one TE, and one RB) deployments. But in Week 18 of last year, the Browns shifted their approach. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper each saw over 90% of the snaps, while No. 3 and 4 wide receivers David Bell and Michael Woods II saw more than 35% a piece. The Browns experimented with a similar game plan in Week 16, but Watson struggled. In Week 18, Watson looked more like the version fantasy managers saw when he was in Houston. He went 19/29 for 230 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The rust was still apparent, but the blueprint for the future arrived.

During Watson's three-year stretch of near-MVP-level play, he was incredibly efficient at creating outside of structure and pushing the ball downfield. He did so on more than 30 attempts per game, a number he failed to reach in his six games last season. When Watson arrived, Cooper was already playing through injury, and Peoples-Jones was the only field-stretching option on the team. The Browns approached this offseason with urgency to put players around Watson that fit his style; he inherited a team crafted to Baker Mayfield's strengths and weaknesses.

The Browns also cut ties with Kareem Hunt, a player they retained through the Baker Mayfield era because of the high volume of rush attempts necessary to run the offense. While Nick Chubb could handle a massive workload, the lack of a reliable No. 2 indicates a preference to transition to a more pass-heavy attack.

But how does this impact Cooper?

A shift to a pass-heavy attack will undoubtedly create more volume for Cooper despite the arrival of the new weapons. Cooper saw 7.8 targets per game in 2022, which he eclipsed just once in the last five seasons. His raw total of 132 targets matched his career high despite the team's insistence on running the ball; the Browns ran the ball at the eighth-highest rate in 2022. The Browns didn't give much to acquire Cooper, but they didn't shy away from getting him the football. While replicating his 26.04% target share may be unrealistic based on his past usage (it may be more realistic than fantasy managers think - stay tuned), a shift to an even league-median pass percentage would grant Cooper a massive boost in workload and, thus, fantasy performance. All signs point to an increase in passing volume, giving Cooper an upside not reflected in his current Average Draft Position.

Watson's No. 1 Receiver

Watson's three-year stretch of greatness also included one of the best wideouts in football for most of that time, but it's worth noting how often Watson chose to target DeAndre Hopkins.