8 Overvalued Players in Fantasy Drafts

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

Calling anyone overvalued this early in the fantasy season could be seen as a hasty decision. Training camps haven't even started, yet assertions and assumptions run rampant. However, weighing risks and rewards before making decisions in fantasy drafts is essential. After reviewing our Consensus Rankings and recent Average Draft Position data, I've identified eight players who may fall short of expectations in the 2023 season.

Ryan also looked at some undervalued players in his previous article! You can find them here.

QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Discussions about Watson inevitably stir up mixed emotions. Some fantasy managers will never draft him, and that's their prerogative. Ultimately, you should build your team according to your own judgment. From a pure fantasy perspective, Watson had a lackluster 2022 season, but surprisingly, this is not reflected in his almost universal top-10 ranking.

Optimism surrounding Watson stems from his age, he'll be just 28 when the season kicks off, and his performance from 2018 to 2020. During those three seasons, he finished as a top-five quarterback each year. However, while his potential is undoubtedly high, he showcased his floor last year, which fantasy managers must take into account.

In six games last season, Watson threw only seven touchdowns and had five interceptions. Moreover, he averaged a meager 183 passing yards per game and barely 30 rushing yards. He scored 20-plus fantasy points in just one of those six games. Overall, Watson ranked as QB25 in terms of points per game, and this downside should prevent him from being part of the top-10 discussion.

QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Opinions on Rodgers now that he's with the Jets are generally divided into two camps. On one side, some look back at his back-to-back MVP seasons with Nathaniel Hackett and envision a return to greatness. On the other side, people examine his performance in 2022 and immediately remove him from their list. The latter group might be onto something.

At first glance, Rodgers' QB13 finish last year may not seem terrible. However, when you analyze his points per game, he ranked as QB26. This placed him on par with Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold. Statistically, it was his worst passer rating, yards per attempt, and interception rate since his rookie season. This underwhelming showing aligns closely with what we witnessed from Tom Brady last season, and he retired afterward.

While Rodgers isn't currently being overdrafted, his potential this year could be exaggerated. If his Average Draft Position creeps up as the preseason unfolds, he becomes a player to avoid in fantasy drafts.

RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Despite nearly being kicked off the team last year, Akers is now being drafted as a top-20 running back for the 2023 season. He was practically unusable for fantasy during the first 12 weeks of last season. However, Akers finished the year with an impressive six-game hot streak, and it seems all is forgiven.

From Weeks 13 to 18, Akers emerged as the fourth-best running back in fantasy. He scored double-digit fantasy points in every game and closed the season with three consecutive 100-yard performances. There's no denying his upside as a fantasy asset, and if you can secure him as your third or fourth running back, you should go for it. However, given his current draft position, you would likely start him every week, which requires an assessment of his entire 2022 season.

During Weeks 1 to 12, Akers was ranked as RB67. He scored only one touchdown during that span and caught just two passes. In the games where Akers performed well, the Rams went 2-4 and were missing Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. It's safe to assume they aspire to be a different team in 2023, so they may not rely on Akers as heavily as they did when they had limited options. Additionally, we must consider Akers' Achilles injury, which is less than two years old. With numerous questions and red flags surrounding Akers, it's difficult to justify drafting him in the top 20.

RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

It seems fantasy managers give Dobbins a pass each season. The running back has shown glimpses of brilliance in a few games but has never finished better than RB24 in fantasy. Yet, once again, we find him ranked as a top-25 running back for the 2023 season. It seems we're content with drafting Dobbins at his ceiling time and time again.

The frustrating part is that Dobbins' ceiling isn't even that impressive. In his 23 appearances, he has only scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 games, nine of which were in 2020. While his career average of 5.8 yards per carry is remarkable, he must prove durable enough to handle a significant workload for that to truly matter.

Considering the risk of Dobbins missing playing time and the 50% chance that he won't even reach 10 fantasy points in a game, his current draft capital is simply too costly. At this stage of the draft, there are safer options available or, at the very least, players with greater weekly upside.